NFL Preseason football is kicking off shortly - so let's make this quick. AFC Conference Standings predictions are coming up! Here's my unofficial projections for Playoff Seedings. Please don't hold me accountable for anything, and don't use this article as a basis to place any financial wagers. There's my disclaimer... so here's my picks!
Buffalo Bills (13-4) The Buffalo Bills are in a Playoff Window that may close sooner than they'd like to admit - but they have all the pieces there to make it over the hump and to the big dance. They've even added former New England Patriots Running Back Damien Harris - and he seems to agree with me. The Bills WR core is still a top-tier group - even if Stefon Diggs is the main reason. Still, with James Cook and Damien Harris in the backfield for the Bills, this team will be a force when moving the ball. Their biggest challenge will come against the Bengals - who will be right on their heels in the standings.
Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) Joe Mixon took a pay cut so his teammates could add some extra cheddar to their weekly allowances. They hope it's going to pay off in a big way - Super Bowl rings in February. I guess we'll see - but this is my other AFC favorite team. Ja'Marr, Burrow, Boyd, Mixon... this team is dangerous. They definitely have the ability to go over 13 wins... don't expect them to miss the playoffs unless they suffer an untimely injury.
Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) The Jaguars are going to have a fun season this year - and I fully expect them to win the AFC South. Their only true competition is the Tennessee Titans - and even they are dealing with a lack-of-depth in some positions on their roster. Trevor Lawrence is coming off of a fantastic season, and the preseason crowd says he's in store for an even bigger year. Evan Engram is following a very similar trend, while Christian Kirk is battling it out with Calvin Ridley for WR1. Zay Jones wants to make a name for himself as WR3, but it just goes to show how deep the Jags are. Not to mention how their defense last year surprised everyone - earning 54 Fantasy Points in their final 5 games (10.8ppg). Expect them to put up a fight - and give the Titans a run for their money. I think they've got it in them to pull it off.
Los Angeles Chargers (12-5) Justin Herbert's window is running out right now - at least with the group he's currently running with. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both have Opt-Out clauses in their contracts after this season - and an expensive option is on the table for 2024... I don't expect them to stick around unless it's restructured. Austin Ekeler has also voiced his desire to move on - but with the current RB climate around the league, it's hard to know if the man will get paid. Still, those three names are some of the best in the business - add in rookie WR Quinten Johnston and this team is taking another step offensively (or so you'd hope). I'd expect the Chargers to go all-in on this season, given the circumstances.
Miami Dolphins (12-5) * WC1 Miami is putting together something special. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is one of - if not the most dynamic WR duo in the league - while De'Von Achane in the backfield speeds up this teams offensive attack substantially. Not because everyone else is that slow, but because De'Von is THAT FAST. Tua's health is important for the success of this team - but Hill has proven he doesn't need a superstar to throw him the ball. He just needs someone who can throw far enough. Mike Gesicki is the only change on this teams offensive core, so let's see how far they can push themselves. They still have uncertainty at RB (Dalvin Cook remains unsigned and has hinted at signing with NYJ), maybe they will target Zeke or Kareem Hunt if Cook doesn't pan out.
Baltimore Ravens (12-5) * WC2 The Ravens have a big change this upcoming season, as new Baltimore OC Todd Monkey is trying to find a rhythm with star QB Lamar Jackson. It's not going well, to say the least. Players are letting their emotions get the best of themselves, which is normal for professional athletes. It's the fact that once they blow their lid, it's downhill and no one can compose themselves. Coach John Harbaugh says it's because they want to be perfect - but it looks like they're throwing temper tantrums. Don't get me wrong - the Ravens are a very special football team with Lamar under center. But unless they get their poop in a group, they may be slipping from the post-season projections.
Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) The Raiders have unofficially released their first depth chart on the pre-season, and one of the biggest takeaways is who is listed at RB1. Josh Jacobs is still holding out on his contract, and Zamir White - who has made a lot of noise this offseason - is currently listed as RB1 with Jimmy G under center. Hunter Renfrow saw a demotion after Jakobi Meyers came to town - but this team has revamped what they can in one off-season. They don't have any rookies in the starting lineup - but that could be a good thing, as they work their way into the pro-reps that they'd be expected to handle as the season moves on. They're a dark-horse for me to make the post-season - I see them sneaking in before the Jets do. Especially with how loaded this offense is.
New York Jets (10-7) Jets fans are sold on the fact that Aaron Rodgers will bring them back to the Post-season. I'm not jumping on-board with that train yet - but now they have projections on trading their former 2nd Rd signal caller to bolster their lineup. Rodgers, who recently turned 39, restructured his contract to save the team $35M. Now, national sports talk host Colin Cowherd says the Jets should try to salvage a draft pick out of Wilson before he expires on the shelf like old milk. Wilson was benched mid-season last year, and has yet to find any relevancy since then. That being said - this team has quite the offense on paper. Breece Hall will be a force to be reckoned with, while Garrett Wilson, Allan Lazard, and Tyler Conklin will work from the outside. They've got a great chance to be a division favorite - but they need to get past both Miami and Buffalo to make it work. I just don't see that happening.
Tennessee Titans (10-7) The Pain Train is coming thru at full force - in what could be Derrick Henry's last full-season as an RB1 in this league. Henry is getting the most activity he's seen in his career coming out of the backfield - and that comes after the signing of legendary WR DeAndre Hopkins. Henry says reporters are reading too far into the reps - claiming it's all just practice and repetition until games come next month. It is a new offensive game-plan, but how different can it be when you have one of the most aggressive, dominate running backs 7yds behind the line of scrimmage in YOUR favor? The Titans still need to prove they know how to throw the ball. It makes it easier when you can toss up a blind pass to the right side and expect a 50% chance Nuke comes down with it - but it's not a great strategy. Now with Nuke and Burks on the outside, defense's should be a bit more honorable about their multi-threat offense - with 2 dynamic WR's and a freight train in the backfield. It should, in theory, create more room across the gridiron - which is a good thing for Derrick "Full-Steam-Ahead" Henry.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-8) In the last two weeks, the only news you've been able to find about the Kansas City Chiefs has been about their former OC and how he's turning up the heat in Washington. Is that a good thing, or a bad thing? Considering your offense is struggling to stay healthy, maybe they should look inwards before focusing on how their old coach is faring. Kadarius Toney recently had knee surgery to address his ailing leg problems, and the latest reports say he should be healthy by Week 1. Last time reports about him being ready Week 1 were surfacing, he ended up playing two weeks of football before sitting out for two months and getting traded. That's their current #2 WR, just ahead of Skyy Moore who wanted to take over that spot. The Chiefs did sign Rashee Rice and Richie James - but their cupboard is just about bare outside of that. Kelce will be the main focus for this team once again, while they run another RBC (Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deneric Prince). Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce can only carry this team so far - which is why I have them missing the post-season for the first time in years.
Cleveland Browns (7-10) DeShawn Watson is hoping his second season with the Browns goes better than his first. He started his 2022 season with a nice long suspension for off-field issues (we all are aware, no need to elaborate), and took over in Week 12 for Jacoby Brissett. I'm still not sure why they made the change, Brissett was having a fantastic year. He was on-pace for a Top 10 QB pace before getting replaced by Watson. Even still, he finished the season at QB21 in the AJFFL with 176.62pts in 15 games. But Brissett is in Washington now, so it's Watson's team again. Amari Cooper will be the top target on the outside, with Nick Chubb staying in the backfield. Donavan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore will factor in as WR2/3, and Njoku will round out the group. A few names to keep eyes on, as Chubb and company won't go through the season scratch-free: Jerome Ford is filling in as RB2 now that Kareem Hunt is out of town. David Bell and Cedric Tillman will also be names to keep your eye on - they're currently listed as WR's 4/5 above Marquise Goodwin on the Depth Chart - and could be popping up on the Waiver Wire early in the season. There's a chance, with all this talent, the Browns click from day one... I'm not putting any eggs in that basket, and I'd advise you avoid them as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-11) Pittsburgh struggled to get on the board last year. They were 26th in Points Scored last year in the NFL - so you could say they are looking to improve on that front. Kenny Pickett helped drive the Steelers to a better second-half story last year, wrapping the season up at 6-2. But they're going to need a lot of people to step up... Najee Harris had a lackluster season in 2022, and rookie George Pickens only made the occaional impact. One of the biggest misses for the Steelers last year was Diontae Johnson's 0TD's. There's a lot of things that can go right for this team - but it's going to be another painful year of growth for the young bloods. Tomlin may see his first sub-500 season as a coach this year.
Indianapolis Colts (4-13) The Colts are dealing with a few social flare-ups as the season gets close - mostly coming from the Front Office and their star RB. Jim Irsay and Jonathan Taylor seem to be at each others throats, but the latest report says Taylor is expected back at camp this week. That's good news for Anthony Richardson - the future of Indianapolis Colts football. Irsay says Richardson is going to be put through the ringer - because that's the only way he will get better. Jonathan Taylor will help get Richardson out of a lot of trouble, but this team still lacks in other areas. Their defense is sub-par, their starting WR (Michael Pittman Jr) has no support in the WR room, and to top it off - they have injuries in the TE room leaving Kylen Granson as #1 on the depth chart. Without Taylor, this team doesn't have an offense. Richardson will be in for a rude awakening against NFL ready Defenses.
Denver Broncos (4-13) Sean Payton is the new HC in Denver, but Russell Wilson is still under center. What's more concerning, is that the offensive line doesn't seem to be on board with one of them. Sean Payton was happy with his QB's performance in their preseason loss to the Cardinals, but it is very concerning when your starting QB gets sacked once, and hit five times in a game that doesn't have meaning to your season. It's been pointed out in Denver since last season - and it's already surfacing as the main concern as we near the NFL Season. Denver struggled last year for several reasons, but one of them wasn't a lack of talent. Their lineup is quite padded with playmakers, but they're welcoming a new coach with another playbook for the third time in less than a decade. Lots of changes means lots of time to get up to game speed. The Broncos aren't there yet.
New England Patriots (4-13) Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard. Many people have heard that saying over the years, but there seems to be a direct correlation to Mac Jones in this scenario. Jones, who won a National Championship with Alabama, has yet to prove himself in the NFL. His second year was even worse than his first - his completion rate dropped by 2%, his PaYD's came up 800yds short, and he threw 8 less TD's and two more INT's. He's got to take better care of the football, and right now it's going to be the Rhamondre Stevenson show until Jones figures it out. Problem is, you can't have a one-dimensional offense in the NFL and expect to win. Belchick has been a mastermind on the defensive side of the ball for decades, but you can't win if you are not scoring either. One thing they may have up their sleeve is Malik Cunningham, who is catching eyes after their first preseason loss to Houston. He could be a situational weapon (or a trick play specialist) as he transitions from QB to WR.
Houston Texans (0-17) The Texans are expecting big things from their two 1st Rd Draft Picks this year. CJ Stroud took the field against the Patriots in his first professional game and... floundered. He ran two series and ended with a line of 2-4 for 13Yds, 2 Rushes for 6RuYds, and 1 sack. He, along with the rest of that young team, have a lot of growing pains coming up over the next few weeks, but that's the only way they will turn the corner. Devin Singletary will help this team take a step forward, but when your best WR is Nico Collins... you may be in trouble when it comes to the air-game. This team has one, maybe two players you'd want to consider on your fantasy team.
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