It's that time. We have made it to the draft - and now everyone is looking for their big Home Run pick in the first couple rounds. Just about everyone knows the big names in each position... so I'm taking a look at wo I think will be the hTop-3 players from each position. After I pick all four (QB/RB/WR/TE), I'll take a big swing at who I think will be coming home with the MVP title in the AJFFL.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow - QB Cincinnati Bengals Speaking of the Bengals, here's Part 2 on why they have such a great trajectory. Burrow's arm use went up last year - even with one less game. His production dropped off slightly, but you could argue that it was because he was trying to protect the ball more - he had one more passing TD and two less INT's compared to his 2021 stats. A big change for the Bengals will be TE, Hayden Hurst hit the high road and is no longer in Cincy, but they were able to find veteran Irv Smith to fill the void. Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins to round out this group, and I don't really need to elaborate. The Bengals will have a target on their back this season.
Patrick Mahomes - QB Kansas City Chiefs The magic hasn't run out in KC, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to see the silver lining in the falling clouds. Kansas City has been a force to be reckoned with since stealing Patrick Mahomes from the Detroit Tigers a handful of years ago. Every season they find a way to be competitive - and it has a lot to do with Mahomes' magic touch. His leadership, the way he sees the game, and the way he can control the play is the main reason the Chiefs are still so great. Mahomes says it's not just him - everyone is buying in to their mantra - and that's the biggest reason they continue to find success. But now you've got an inexperienced WR group led by the injured MVS and Kadarius Toney, Richie James who has only a handful of NFL games, last year's rookie Skyy Moore and this year's rookie Rashee Rice. Does that alone take Mahomes out of the MVP contention? Absolutely not. He's done more with less - just look at his College Career at Texas Tech.
Jalen Hurts - QB Philadelphia Eagles Hurts, don't it? Jalen had a fantastic season last year, breaking out as the Fantasy league MVP despite only playing 14 regular season games. It makes it easier when you have AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to throw the ball to. They did lose out on Miles Sanders, who got shipped to Carolina - but they brought in D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny to help Kenneth Gainwell patrol the backfield. All three of those guys combined make as much money as Sanders was due this year - and I think you could call it an upgrade. Consider this: The worst passing option right now on Philly is WR3, Quez Watkins. If he's your WORST option - things are looking pretty good for a mobile QB like Hurts. Don't forget he's got a cannon for an arm - for all you AJ Brown supporters. Even former Detroit Lion Darius Slay says Hurts still hasn't unleashed his full potential on the league. With Hurts under Center, the Eagles went from a First Round Exit in 2021 to the Super Bowl in 2022. They're continuing to expand their offensive approach, as Hurts finished near the bottom of the league in attempted passes last season. He clearly knows how to capitalize on it though, because he's still going to be a top scoring QB in fantasy this year - just look at the team around him. Don't forget he had 13 Rushing TD's... the guy just knows how to make an impact.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey - RB San Francisco 49ers A new place with McCaffrey in San Fran - and it couldn't be a better situation for him. His preseason reps have looked perfect, and they have the talent on the outside to make it work. San Fran may be the best team in the league this year - even with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy under center. Expect McCaffery to have increased touches at the beginning of the season and to be the focal point of this offense. He will be rushing and catching that half-PPR swing pass from Purdy - who will probably be dumping it off quickly as he works to re-establish his rhythm following his off-season surgery.
Austin Ekeler - RB Los Angeles Chargers The man who made the Chargers offense churn last year wants out of LA - and he wants to get paid. Could this be a recipe to exchange the explosive RB for Jonathan Taylor? Probably not - but I can't help but imagine. Justin Herbert is young, but the core around him is not. Ekeler wants out, Williams and Allen have limited time left, and Gerald Everett is entering his seventh NFL season as a TE. The only youth on this offense (outside of Herbert) would be the new WR Quinten Johnston, but this might be the last push they have before they need to think about retooling. Ekeler has proven in the past he can handle a large workload, and this season won't be any different in the amount of work he has - but it may vary in the style. Expect more passing, especially with the addition of the speedy Johnston. It should (in theory) open up the running lanes for Ekeler to be more effective on the ground... but he's just as effective in the air, and he gets a 0.5 boost for each grab. Why not add that to your bank?
Derrick Henry - RB Tennessee Titans King Henry has been, and will remain a force to be reckoned with. His stats speak for themselves, although his health is a concern as he turns the corner on his Age 30 season. He's a Top-5 RB in fantasy over the last five seasons when in the lineup, and it comes on a team that doesn't pass all too much. Granted, that may change with Tannehill and Hopkins... but it's still Henry's backfield. His workhorse days may be numbered, but he will still be the main driving force on this offense. Expect RB1 numbers week in and week out if he's on your squad.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson - WR Minnesota Vikings The consensus pre-season favorite among all Skill Players (RB/WR) in the PPR/Half-PPR leagues for MVP, Justin Jefferson finally has some support on the outside, and now he's got a solid TE to draw off some additional coverage. Mind you, they did lose their starting RB in Dalvin Cook - but there are still a few names on the market who could come in and make a solid RB1/2 punch with Mattison (looking at Kareem Hunt - or the newly touted rumor of Jonathan Taylor moving on). Jefferson has been a workhorse since entering the league, and you can expect much of the same from Kirk Cousins and company. Minnesota will need to dig out all their tricks in order to take the division, so expect the young Jetta's to be on the top of his game this year.
Ja'Marr Chase - WR Cincinnati Bengals Chase had a 22% target share last season - and that's including his missed time. If you cut out his missed time, his target share jumps to nearly 30%. He hauled in 65% of all targets to him, so it's safe to say the Bengals have found an effective and efficient way to use the former LSU Tiger. Entering his third NFL season, Ja'Marr has established himself as the WR1 on a contenting team for the AFC. Outside of injury, there's no reason why he couldn't be an MVP candidate this year - especially if the Bengals want to make it over the hump.
AJ Brown - WR Philadelphia Eagles See: Jalen Hurts. Brown will be dangerous as long as he stays healthy. He has the talent (and the size factor) to catch just about anything thrown his way. And when you have Jalen Hurts dropping deep bombs to you, of course you're going to sign long-term. Brown reminds me a lot of Mike Evans - big body, quick feet, good hands. As long as he's healthy and DeVonta Smith is on the other side of the formation, defenses will have to give respect to one of them. Odds will be Brown gets doubled up until Smith earns more respect - but I wouldn't want either one of those guys to run one-on-one with my defense. Take into consideration they're both young (Brown is 26, Smith is 24), this duo may be in the running for the best in the NFL. According to PFN, Brown/Smith combined for 56% of Philly's passing plays last season. What's not to like about that?
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce - TE Kansas City Chiefs The guy just doesn't miss. He has finished in the Top-5 TE category for the last several years, with most of those finishes coming as #1 or #2 TE in the league. And he's probably going to get another large workload with season, judging by the Chiefs offseason moves. Kansas City watched another WR walk and their WR core slowly deplete, after Mecole Hardmon signed with the Jets this offseason. Kadarius Toney seems to enjoy the new team, Richie James has also come over from the Giants to the Chiefs camp. But Toney can't stay healthy, and MVS is recovering from an injury - along with Richie James. The current healthy WR's in KC are Skyy Moore, rookie Rachee Rice, and Justin Watson. Not saying that's a problem, but if you consider the logjam the Chiefs have at RB - Kelce seems to be the only constant in the offensive formations (outside of Mahomes). Take it to the bank, he'll be a Top TE this year once again.
Mark Andrews - TE Baltimore Ravens Mark Andrews has been near the top of the TE group since arriving on the scene a few years ago. The former Oklahoma Sooner has had three Pro-Bowl seasons, one All-Pro season, and he's on the newly revamped Baltimore Ravens offense where the coaches are fronting a "pass first" mentality. Which is great for players like Andrews - who was extremely successful in the "Lamar Jackson" offense where the team would lineup in a passing formation and then the speedster would take off down the sideline or loft a deep ball. Most of his work came in the red zone - he's got 34 RecTD's in five seasons, but expect even more activity for one of the best offensive weapons on the Ravens offense.
TJ Hockenson - TE Minnesota Vikings TJ has been the main focus for Vikings fans ever since he was traded last season from their division rival. Since the move, Hockenson has put up respectable numbers, but if you take out the outliers - they're just slightly above average. What catches my eye is that his usage is right on par with Kelce... and two of the biggest target shares from Minnesota left town this offseason. His usage could increase substantially, or most of that split could go Jefferson's way - regardless though, he will be getting much more attention on offense and from the defensive units he's going up against. Don't be surprised to see him contend for TE1.
SO WHO CAN YOU EXPECT ON TOP?
Quarterbacks run the league. It's as simple as that. But RB's and WR's are giving the QB position a run for their money the last few seasons. Despite that, I still think it will be a QB MVP yet again - and Joe Burrow seems the most likely candidate. The Bengals have continued to elevate their play on both sides of the ball since drafting Burrow - and their team isn't slowing down. Their biggest test will be outside of the division, taking on the Buffalo Bills at home in Week 8 - right around Trade Deadline. They will then take on their division rival Ravens two weeks later in Baltimore - in what could be a HUGE divisional matchup. Only time will tell, but Burrow's progress says he's got hardware coming his way sooner rather than later. If not for Burrow, you could make arguments for Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to sneak into the Top 3 NFL QB's, but I still think it would be between Mahomes and Hurts at that point for league MVP. As for Jefferson/McCaffrey/Kelce, odds are they won't be at the top of the MVP list but they will definitely be in contention for being the Positional #1.
Want to have some more fun? Let's check back in at Week 8 and see how we're looking on these projections! Odds are, I will have more Freezing Cold Takes than Hot Takes, but I also expect to be very wrong about a lot of these. Maybe it's a strategy to put faith in the wrong guys... maybe I'm not good at evaluating football talent. Or maybe I do it just to get people talking about fantasy football. Whatever your reasoning: we can't wait for the NFL season to start.
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