The Final Keepers list of the summer! These guys were good finds late in the year last year, but are being buried in our Mock Drafts. Why? Rookies, trades, Free Agent signings, the list is really endless. That being said, some of these guys are your true hidden diamonds-in-the-rough. Let's take a look at our final Keepers List - also known as guys you can (most likely) target late in the draft!
Disclaimer: These values have no direct impact on the featured player - it's a formula to assess offensive-teammate-production around them. The higher the number, the more success their teammates find. The lower the number, the more their offense relies on them to produce at a high rate.
Joe Mixon RB Cincinnati Bengals 14 Games | 209.5pts | 88% Start (Career) | 0.71 RelVal | Situation Around Them: 71/100 | ADP: 3.07 Joe Mixon recently restructured his contract - telling Bengals fans that they're looking to make the push for a Super Bowl in the very near future. Running Backs across the NFL are in the middle of a very lopsided "industry standard" according to some owners (*cough cough* Jim Irsay *cough cough*), but Mixon completely disregarded the notion that good RB's need to get paid. Good RB's can also take pay-cuts to get a ring - and that's exactly what Mixon has in mind with his recent restructure. Look at the team around him - Higgins, Chase, Burrow, Boyd... That's why his SAT score is so high. He has performers all around him - meaning that when he does get the ball in his hands, he will have room to make plays. Most people are discrediting him after a slow season last year, and it's causing him to slide down draft boards. Mixon will be a weak RB1, but he's falling into RB2 territory in the draft board - quite the steal at that spot if you ask me.
Sam Darnold QB San Francisco 49ers 5 Games | 97.4pts | 50% Start (Career) | 0.75 RelVal | SAT: 57/100 | ADP: Undrafted Sam Darnold electric in his first few starts for the Carolina Panthers in 2021. An unfortunate injury set him back, and now he's the QB3 on the San Francisco 49ers - his third team in three seasons. He did log some impressive games to wrap up the 2022 season - 23/37 for 341yds and 3 TDs vs Tampa, 12/22 for 25-yds and TD vs Detroit, and 14/23 for 225yds and a TD vs Pittsburgh. The former First-Round Pick looks to beat out Brock Purdy and Trey Lance for the starting job - which is why his SAT score is so low. If Darnold was the #1, his SAT would probably be closer to 80. Let's think about it - CMC in the backfield, Aiyuk or Deebo out wide, Kittle on the line... what else do you need? Without Darnold jumping Lance on the depth chart (which is entirely possible), he's got a bleak outlook this season to get reps. I don't know how long Purdy will be under center this year, but if you had to pick one team to find a new QB this year - it's either San Fran or New England. Darnold is already on the roster, so a late round pick might land you a reliable set of hands for cheap.
Melvin Gordon RB Baltimore Ravens 10 Games | 74.6pts | 76% Start (Career) | 0.35 RelVal | SAT: 56/100 | ADP: 12.09 Melvin Gordon was surprisingly cut from the Denver Broncos mid-season last year. Javonte Williams took that role over in-stride and hasn't looked back - but Gordon has been searching for a new home ever since. Last week - the Ravens decided to add the veteran RB to their room in hopes that someone might be healthy by Kickoff for the season. The Ravens announced just prior to Gordon's signing that JK Dobbins will miss the start of minicamp due to a knee rehab assignment. Gus Edwards, who also suffered a knee injury recently, is next on the depth chart - with Justice Hill behind him. Gordon should slide into the RB2 role with Dobbins out, unless he ousts Edwards for the RB1 role - which is also entirely possible. Baltimore has made it known they're looking to throw the ball a bit more this year - which could draw back on Gordon's potential. His lowest ceiling to start the year will be a backup FLEX option, but he can reach RB1 potential depending on his preseason use. Keep an eye on him - he could be a diamond.
DeAndre Hopkins WR Tennessee Titans 9 Games | 119.7pts | 56% Start (Career) | 0.61 RelVal | SAT: 52/100 | ADP: 4.10 DeAndre's arrival in Tennessee is making waves for Titans fans. Some fan responses are euphoric - saying they're ready to win the division. Don't get me wrong, Nuke is a great add for a team needing a star WR - but they still need a QB to throw him the ball. Hopkins will be putting up all-star numbers this year as he typically does, but this move appears to be more of a development move for Treylon Burks. Burks is heading into his sophomore year, and the team had just shipped out AJ Brown upon Burks' arrival. He was thrust into WR1 role with no NFL experience, and Ryan Tannehill throwing him the ball. It's no wonder the Titans ran the ball most of the year. Hopkins can help teach Burks the ropes, and also open up the field for the youngster. Now that the Titans have a second option to throw the ball, maybe we see a breakout season from Treylon. Hopkins delayed start to the season last year impacted his fantasy value substantially - but those who didn't pay attention missed his immediate impact on the Cardinals offense when he returned. Hopkins will be that same playmaker/difference maker for the Titans, but don't expect the same production he had in Arizona. His ADP is much higher than I expected it to be - especially heading to a new offense with a low-volume passing output. But then again, it's Hopkins. I would expect him to be gone by the midpoint (Round 7-9) in your drafts though.
Daniel Jones QB New York Giants 16 Games | 299.0pts | 79% Start (Career) | 0.71 RelVal | SAT: 50/100 | ADP: 10.06 The Danny-Dimes hype train has yet to really get moving, but one thing is certain: the dude is undervalued. In the last two years, Jones improved his RelVal by 10points (from 0.62 to 0.72), put up production at nearly a x1.5 rate from 2021, and he did it with a less-reliable crew. Jones will be a STEAL of a pick in the second-half of the draft. His current trajectory reminds me of Goff before being traded to Detroit - he's got the QB tools and there aren't a lot of resources at his disposal - but man, the guy handles the football well and puts his teammates in the best position for success. His SAT score is low because his only real help is in the backfield with Saquon and the newly signed James Robinson. The Giants are looking to turn the page to Brian Daboll's second season as HC, and they're hoping the offense takes the next step too. They did lose Kadarius Toney and Richie James, but this already-depleted WR room didn't fall off too much. The Giants DID add Darren Waller, which will move Bellinger down the depth chart... not a bad thing when your TE2 is just as reliable as your TE1. Maybe this translates to a more reliable backfield... they could be gearing up for some PRO offense formations with the look of this depth chart. Important note: Jones threw the ball 472 times last year, 110 times more than 2021. I'd be surprised to see a drop-off in his passing attempts, so let's see who his favorite target is in training camp.
James Conner RB Arizona Cardinals 13 Games | 177.2pts | 82% Start (Career) | 0.65 RelVal | SAT: 47/100 | ADP: 4.07 James Conner stock is rising rapidly after Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon announced that Conner will start the year at the top of the depth chart. He did miss a handful of games last year, but he was able to make an impact when he suited up. His 0.65RelVal left him at RB22 last year, and the Cardinals are going to need help this year when it comes to moving the football. Kyler Murray is projected to miss some time with a knee injury, while DeAndre Hopkins has found a new home. It's left Hollywood Brown to be the only experienced WR leading the group ahead of Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch. Zach Ertz, the aging Tight End on the roster, is also regressing from season-to-season, so you can expect Conner to be a primary focus for production with this offense... as long as he can stay healthy. His Mock Draft ADP is high because he's tagged as an RB1... Don't be surprised to see him slip to the middle of the draft though. He's a steal of an RB if he's still available after his ADP.
Brian Robinson Jr. RB Washington Commanders 12 Games | 108.8pts | 71% Start (Career) | 0.43 RelVal | SAT: 40/100 | ADP: 7.07 Nothing can stop this man. Not even a bullet (or two). Robinson Jr. started his rookie campaign about a month late after an off-field incident left him with some lead in his leg - but it didn't slow him down when he returned to the field. In 12 games, the rookie RB from Florida put up an impressive 108pts on a struggling Commanders team - and now he's hungry for MORE. After his recovery, he impressed the front office that decided to take him in the third round - and he's not looking back. Washington has labeled Robinson as RB1 heading into training camp, with Antonio Gibson close behind him. Eric Bieniemy is excited to get to work with both the explosive Robinson and the surehanded Gibson, but they're going to need their QB to find a rhythm before they become competitive in their division. Expect Robinson to get high volume - but it won't necessarily translate to high-output. Still though, an RB1 in the 7th Rd of your fantasy draft is pretty nice to have.
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