Guess what? I'm picking rookie favorites based on their current position on NFL Depth Charts, and the situation around them moving forward. It has no overall bearing on their actual value, usage, or potential production - just what I think they might accomplish fantasy-wise based on where they will be starting their career.
Bijan Robinson - RB Atlanta Falcons Bijan Robinson is a monster of a running back. There's only been four RB's (in recent history) to tap into the Top-10 in the NFL Draft outside of Robinson - Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliot, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley. They were all MUST HAVE players in PPR leagues as rookies too - averaging over 15ppg. With Atlanta's current offensive outlook, Bijan will be the front runner of their three-headed monster along with Pitts and London. Expect a lot of touches for him by mid-season through your post-season push - also the reason why he's my #1 RotY candidate.
Bryce Young - QB Carolina Panthers The #1 Pick in the NFL Draft goes #1 for a reason - they are typically one of the top impact players in the draft class (obviously). Young will be no different, being thrust into a tough position in a rebuilding Carolina organization. But they're making the best of what they have right now - a refreshed WR corps led by DJ Chark and Adam Thielen, a change in the backfield adding the speedy Miles Sanders, and a big target from Cincinnati in Hayden Hurst. According to ESPN - Young has officially cracked the depth chart as QB1 and is earning a lot of respect from his new teammates - let's see if he's able to continue building that chemistry and provide the spark the Carolina Panthers' rebuild needs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR Seattle Seahawks Smith-Njigba is in quite a unique situation. He was drafted to a team with a deep WR group in Seattle (behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett), but Tyler Lockett will be entering his age-31 season this year. He recently restructured his contract that has three years left on it, so JSN will have time to learn the game from a new perspective with DK and Lockett around. Still - JSN was one of the best (and most explosive) WR's in the draft last year. Add that to a mix of two Pro Bowl WR's and a strong showing from last year's rookie RB - and this is a recipe for success in the Pacific Northwest for Smith-Njigba. If Seattle's passing game performs anything like it was last year... JSN will be a high-value target this fall.
Quinten Johnston - WR Los Angeles Chargers Johnston has more long-term value than he does immediate return right now - but I threw him in my top-5 because someone ALWAYS gets hurt in LA. Johnston is in what could be perceived as the perfect position to be thrust into a WR1 role within the first two years of his career. That's because the future of the WR room is unclear. Keenan Allen is signed through next season, but has an opt-out clause after this year. Mike Williams' contract is structured the same way, and Austin Ekeler's contract expires after this year. Despite this, the Chargers threw the second-most passes in the NFL last year (good news for Herbert fans) and that is even better news for Johnston stans. He still has to battle Allen/Williams for targets, but their injury history's indicate Johnston would be a great pickup (or late draft pick, considering the contract outlooks). His low-floor for the season might indicate a low round pick, but he will have long-term value in dynasty leagues.
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB Detroit Lions Most people expect Gibbs to appear on this list - but not everyone would put him in their top-5. I think he has an even higher floor and can be the steal of the fantasy draft - depending on how long it takes before he's off the board. The Lions and Ben Johnson have clearly found a rhythm the Motor City hasn't seen in years, and their offense is clicking. Add in one of the fastest players from the draft class in the backfield and you're in good position to make more noise. He'll be lined up as RB2 on the depth chart behind David Montgomery, but don't be surprised to see him on the field at or near a 50% snap count. He's got a high ceiling though - don't sleep on it.
CJ Stroud - QB Houston Texans CJ Stroud is currently QB1 in Houston, but they have their work cut out for them. New from Buffalo RB Devin Singletary has spoken in high regard of his new teammates awareness and understanding of the game - but it's different to know the game than it is to be able to play the game. Houston struggled to move the ball last year because their Offensive Line was in a bad spot. They made a LOT of trades this draft season and have restocked their cupboard on linemen. Only time will tell if they are able to keep Stroud on his feet. He could be the RotY, or he may end his rookie season early due to injury. Despite the variance - his ceiling prevents me from leaving him off this list.
Zay Flowers - WR Baltimore Ravens My long-play/dark-horse candidate (and possibly the best outlook for a WR fantasy-wise) - Zay Flowers is going to be a stud with Baltimore. His rookie season will see a WR corps of Duvernay, OBJ, Batemon, and Flowers. Add in Mark Andrews and Baltimore's "New Look" passing game is already taking shape on paper. Flowers is already getting spotted working out with OBJ and other NFL WR's. He clearly is hungry to make an impact, but there's a lot of competition in the Ravens room. Flowers has a high enough ceiling to be a top target for Lamar, but Duvernay and Batemon being healthy and active is drastically impacting his floor ahead of the season.
Jordan Addison - WR Minnesota Vikings There is a lot of hype around Jordan Addison - and for good reason. His athletic ability alone is enough to get butts out of seats - but now he has the chance to share the field with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson. Defenses will need to figure out who the more dangerous target is of the three - and the thing is, they ALL can make plays. While he does have a large role to fill (replacing Adam Thielen), but the 5-foot-11, 173lbs Wide Out can create separation and move the ball downfield. With Alexander Mattison slated to fill Dalvin Cook's role, you can expect the Vikings to toss the pigskin around a bit more this year. Addison may be on the receiving end more often than not, depending on who the defenses want to respect.
Anthony Richardson - QB Indianapolis Colts The #4 overall selection in the NFL Draft has 13 career starts under his belt since leaving high school - but Jim Irsay and the Indianapolis Colts said that was good enough for them. Now it's a "trial by fire" approach for Richardson, according to Irsay. The front office is hammering down on Richardson's development will only improve through game-situations, which is true to an extent. But for someone who lacks the experience, the Colts Front Office seems to think doubling down on "learning from his mistakes" is going to be a good thing for him. As a result, I worry about his overall trajectory as an NFL QB. His college tape shows he has the vision and ability to move the ball, but his floor is also quite low. His ceiling is the only reason he's made this list.
Devon Achane - RB Miami Dolphins Miami's RB room is STACKED right now. Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Salvon Ahmed, Myles Gaskin and now Devon Achane. But wait - there's more! Dalvin Cook is still looking for a home, although the latest reports say he isn't happy with any offers he's received and he's going to wait until closer to training camp to make a decision on where he will play this season. This opens the door for Achane - who was drafted with the 84th Pick (3rd Rd) this past season - to make a case for himself. He was the fastest drafted player this past spring, clocking in a 4.32 40Yd Dash. Add that in with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's speed, and you've got one of the fastest skill-groups in the league. Miami ranked 31st in rushing attempts last year, and 25th in Rushing Yards. Achane won't be a first-down back by any means due to his size, but his explosiveness gives him the green light to be a big help in PPR leagues. Then again, if Dalvin signs in Miami - Achane and any other Dolphin RB will be worth next to nothing.
HM: Dalton Kinkaid - TE BUF; Jayden Reed - WR GB; Tyjae Spears - RB TEN
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