As we quickly approach the NFL Draft - let’s take a look back at last year’s rookie class and their performances. I’ll also predict where they might end up production-wise for 2023 based on their team’s current look (prior to the draft)... along with a few sleepers who you may want to target as keepers ahead of selecting your new team!
1. Garrett Wilson - WR New York Jets
Garrett Wilson had himself an impressive rookie campaign for a Wide Receiver making a living in New York. He found a rhythm with Zach Wilson, but was thrown from that routine with Joe Flacco under center for a few games during the year. It landed him as our Rookie of the year, but can you count on him for another big year this fall? I’m saying NO. Wilson is now battling Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb (who is somehow still in the league). Despite Aaron Rodgers potentially coming over, he’s already competing with two guys who have solid relationships with the drama queen from Green Bay. Add in a RB with something to prove (Breece Hall), and you’ve got an anomaly season for Garrett. He’s got the skills to be one, but I don’t think he has the same expected performance. I’m expecting Wilson to land as a WR3, and below the WR45 mark for 2023.
2. Chris Olave - WR New Orleans Saints
Olave had several consistent performances, with very few BOOM games. His consistency shows that he was either the reliable set of hands, or he was THAT GUY. Seeing that a few other players for New Orleans also performed well, I don’t think the QB change will falter his potential next season. His main competition will be Mike Thomas returning to the other side of the formation, as well as new addition Jamaal Williams in the backfield. Still - he has the potential to continue to grow in his current role. And with a solid rookie campaign under his belt and plenty of opportunities coming to fine tune it, I’d see Olave being in the conversation for a long-term keeper on your fantasy teams. He’s bumping his production up to a Top20 WR with New Orleans, with potential to be WR1 on your squad.
3. Dameon Pierce - RB Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce was part of the Running Back Committee in Houston last season - until they realized what they had in him. Pierce was then named the starter and didn’t look back. His production slowed as the season went on, and he eventually was sidelined for the fantasy playoffs due to injury. Still, he finished the season with 151 Fantasy Points on a bad Houston Team. If they go with a signal caller like they’re expected to in the 1st Round this year, I can see Pierce being their lead-guy in another RBC. That being said, I don’t think they’ll be ready to spread out the offense and start slinging it JUST yet. Put Pierce on your sleeper list. He’s going to finish as a Top20 RB this fall, and easily an RB2.
4. Kenneth Walker III - RB Seattle Seahawks
Walker started his year slow, as RB3 on the depth chart for the Seattle Seahawks. That quickly changed though, as Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny were sidelined with injuries… and as a result, they are no longer with the team. Not because they weren’t good, but because Walker was THAT MUCH better. KWIII finished as RB18 in the NFL, while also finishing with the highest RelVal among all rookie players that wasn’t a kicker. That being said, Walker and Geno Smith are certainly a duo to keep an eye on this year. Even with the return of Lockett and Metcalf, the Seahawks have the outside talent to be dangerous. The only question will be: do they have what it takes to put it all together on the field? I’m riding high on Walker next year, and say he will finish as your RB1 and Top-10. Book it.
5. Christian Watson - WR Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson seemed to find a rhythm late in the season with Aaron Rodgers under center in Green Bay. His rookie campaign showed flashes of his athleticism, but also his lack of discipline. Dropping easy passes and not being able to hold onto the football cost his team a couple of games for the Packers. Now, he's looking at possibly Jordan Love in the pocket moving forward. Watson's 10.29 VpGP was above-average for the Rookie class, but he may have a tough future if he sticks around in GB. It would be surprising to see Watson eclipse the WR50 mark.
6. Kenny Pickett - QB Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett was thrown into a bad situation, but he was able to make the most of it. At least, what's what I'm going to call it. Najee Harris didn't seem to be the same RB he was the year prior, so it was really up to the QB room in Pittsburgh to get it done. Mitchell Trubisky flunked once again, and Mason Rudolph didn't even get a look. Pickett seemed to find a connection with Rookie WR George Pickens (who we'll touch on in a moment). The rookie QB finished as a Top-30 QB after only playing 12 games under center. With a full 17-game schedule, you can expect Pickett to be in the conversation for a bigger year, and a more impressive sophomore season as a Day-1 Starter for the Steelers. I can see Pickett being a QB2 and a Top-20 QB in 2023.
7. Tyler Allgeier - RB Atlanta Falcons
Allgeier had a respectable year for RB2 in an RBC in Atlanta. He didn't really get much of an opportunity before Cordarrelle Patterson went down with a knee injury. Even still - he was battling Caleb Huntly for snaps. His best performances came in Fantasy Playoffs, so some managers may have high regard for him right now. This is the time to sell high on him. Allgeier won't amount to anything special - and there are several rumors around the Falcons targeting an defensive positions for their first selection (#8 Overall), finishing 19th in Fantasy Scoring last season for D/ST. Allgeier will be, at-best, part of another RBC next season. Don't expect a Top-40 finish from him, but you could use him as a decent flex option if he's still available later in your draft.
8. George Pickens - WR Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens let his inner-dawg come out last year, and was quite the compliment to Dionte Johnson on the other side of the formation. This young Pittsburgh offense has a lot of potential moving forward, and the chemistry between Pickett and Pickens is very apparent. This connection could be one of the more electric connections we see as their chemistry develops more over time. The athleticism and creativity of Pickens will keep him in the conversation for a while. His 7.99VpGP was above-average for 1st Year WR's across the league, but it wasn't at the top of the list. His RelVal was all the way down at 0.37. Still - I can see his breakout season coming. George Pickens can be a Top-20 WR in the league, but it will take a few seasons for him to get there. I can see an improvement from 41st to a Top-35 finish for Pickens this season as a high-end Flex, or good WR3.
9. Drake London - WR Atlanta Falcons
Drake London was part of the offensive mix that Atlanta brought to the table every week - and he performed quite well for a WR with a questionable QB in Marcus Mariota. Desmond Ridder filled in to finish the season after Mariota stepped away from the team - so we're not really sure what was going on there. Still, London's 7.98VpGP and 0.37 RelVal weren't making much noise for the rookie. He landed just behind Pickens in Pts, but his outlook is much bleaker in regards to his offensive use. Unless Ridder unlocks a deferent level of his gameplay, Atlanta will struggle offensively once again. London will be lucky to finish as a WR2 on fantasy teams, but will probably be in the Top-50 WR range.
10. Cade York - K Cleveland Browns
Cade York had a good season as the Cleveland Kicker, and most of it was thanks to Jacoby Brissett. Now that DeShawn Watson is under center, who knows how the offense will click. It will be a wait-and-see approach for York's production, but if Watson can get them in range - York has proven he can put them through. Definitely aim to draft York if you want a good kicker on your team, but he won't be going anywhere in the first 13 rounds of any draft.
Players to watch out for:
Jameson Williams - WR Detroit Lions
Mr. Jameson Williams will be donning #9 once again, and he couldn't be more excited to suit up. He played in only a handful of games last season, but scored on his lone 41-Yd reception by blowing by the Vikings Defense. He also had a nice 40yd rush against the Bears in Week 17. Two touches, 81 total yds, and a TD. After recovering from his knee surgery, Jameson Williams looks to be back to full speed and will be a dynamic player on your roster this fall. I can see him struggling at first before finding his footing... Expect Jamo to be a Top-35 WR this fall. His best fit will probably be your WR2 role until he finds his stride, but he will definitely be flirting with WR1 territory if he's on his game come Week 1.
James Cook - RB Buffalo Bills
The Bills are already talking about how much Cook has grown (both physically and mentally) since arriving to Buffalo. He's about ready to take on the task that many have struggled with: RB1 for the Bills. Singletary is gone, and so is Zach Moss - but they resigned Nyheim Hines for their RB2 role (and most likely their passing-down back). Still - with Allen under center, the utilization of Cook could be dynamic and very impactful This might be the year to get him on your roster prior to the season starting, because he's got "RB1" written all over him, much like Kenneth Walker III. Cook is projected to finish as a Top-50 RB this year, but I'm saying he will be closer to a Top-30 RB2 on your Fantasy Squad.
Jake Ferguson - TE Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott loves throwing to his Tight Ends, and every one who has played with Prescott has found some great numbers. Both by lots of targets, and lots of Touchdowns. Jake Ferguson played in 12 games last year, and really made an impact in games that Dalton Schultz was missing from. Just a few weeks ago, Schultz inked a new deal... with the Houston Texans. So now that TE1 is open, Ferguson is expected to fill that role - unless Jerry Jones says otherwise and drafts one anyways. Even as TE2 for the Cowboys last year, Ferguson ended his season as a Top-40 TE. His production will absolutely jump this fall, and he'll probably be in the Top-20 TE range this fall. You could take the risk making him your TE1... Prescott has shown it's good for your Fantasy Team.
Treylon Burks - WR Tennessee Titans
Treylon Burks is in line to be the future WR1 in Tennessee, especially after they shipped out AJ Brown prior to last season. The signing of Robert Woods took away some of Burks' opportunities, but lets be honest... with Ryan Tannehill under center, there won't be much opportunity for them to throw the ball. Add Derrick Henry to the mix and I have a very had time putting faith in the Tennessee Receiving Core. Burks finished last season with 10 games for a 7.97VpGP and a 0.37 Rel Val. Overall, not horrible numbers for a rookie WR... but it's nothing to write home about. He should be expected to take a big step forward production wise, as he has a year under his belt in the NFL - and many scouts have expected him to mature into his role. I don't see him jumping up the list all too much, but he could definitely be in your WR4/Flex conversation.
Breece Hall - RB New York Jets
Had he not gone down with an injury in Week 7, Breece Hall was the Rookie of the Year favorite. He tallied 107.6pts in 7 games for a 15.37VpGP and a 0.73 RelVal. Despite having Zach Wilson under center, Hall was constantly being found as his check-down, and it was a fantastic pairing. Whether on the ground or through a screen, Hall found ways to move the ball upfield on a regular basis. His vision and physicality definitely helped him get over the hump - but now that teams know how he plays, he may take a step back in production. Add in the knee recovery, and he will have a slow start to the year. Still - Hall finished 11th in Rookie Scoring (while only playing 7 games), and 33rd in the RB Ranks. Give him 15 games, and Hall is projected to be a Top5 RB. Scoop him up - Hall has the chance to be your game-breaking sleeper pick in this year's Fantasy League.
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