Things are heating up - both in our world, and in Fantasy Football! Our Tight End outlook for the 2024 season is already upon us - and this might just be the worst thing you can read to figure out who YOU want on your squad this fall. With three months to the season opener, there's a lot of time for this list to flip completely - and for injuries to derail the narrative! So take this with a grain of salt... or stash this for some slandering towards my "Football Knowledge" later this year! Let's dig in!
Receptions Targets, Yards, and TDs were pulled from CBS Fantasy, Snap Counts* were pulled from FootballGuys, and all other stats** are pulled from the AJFFL Database. * = Snaps logged during the NFL Regular Season (Weeks 1-18)
** = Games Played is based off of the AJFFL 17 Week Schedule, foregoing the final week of the season for calculation purposes.
*** Target Share = Targets / Snaps Logged
GP = Games Played | RSP = Regular Season Points | TP = Total Points | RelVal = Relative Value | VpGP = Value per Game Played
Mark Andrews Baltimore Ravens 10 GP | 112.9 RSP | 112.9 TP | 0.72 RelVal | 11.29 VpGP | 45 Rec | 61 Targets | 544 Yds | 6 TD | TE9 MAN-drews is going to have another career year. The Ravens are in the prime of their Super Bowl Contention window (in my non-expert opinion), and now they have Derrick Henry in the backfield to help alleviate some pressure for Lamar and his running game. Speaking to the passing game - Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are the top-2 WR's listed on the depth chart, with Nelson Agholor at WR3. As long as Andrews stays healthy, he should be a top target for Lamar this fall yet again. He was on-pace to be TE2 last year before his season-ending injury, while also on-pace to have more receptions, yards, and TD's than his 2022 campaign where he played 15 games (Andrews was at a 13.1% Target Share*** before his Week 11 injury). Just imagine what he would see if he played the entire season.
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs 15 GP | 1161.6 RSP | 176.9 TP | 0.75 RelVal | 11.79 VpGP | 93 Rec | 120 Targets | 984 Yds | 5 TD | TE1 Travis Kelce is still a top-tier TE, but I'm going to start fading him in my fantasy rankings. For only the third time in his career, Kelce saw overall statistic regressions in his on-field performance - he had fewer targets, receptions, yards, and TDs than the year before. For someone who has been in the league since 2013, that is quite the impressive run. Kelce's projected season outlook will be heavily weighted in the first half of the year while the Chiefs get their offense back into rhythm, seeing that Rashee Rice could be missing time and Hollywood Brown will need to adjust to the new offense. That could mean Kelce is the favorite target for Mahomes once again - which is to be expected. As a matter of fact, he was at a 15.5% Target Share through 2023. However, I see Rice and Brown getting most of the targets as the year goes on - so maybe Kelce is a draft and trade before the aforementioned get up to speed (or back in the huddle).
George Kittle San Francisco 49ers 16 GP | 147.8 RSP | 176.7 TP | 0.70 RelVal | 11.04 VpGP | 65 Rec | 90 Targets | 1020 Yds | 5 TD | TE3 The San Francisco 49ers will have players in every one of these lists - and for good reason. They're STACKED. Do I need to elaborate? Kittle has been a top-performing TE ever since getting bumped to TE1 on the San Francisco depth chart. They will continue to spread the ball out, but Kittle should still be at the top of his game - even if he's turned the corner on his Age-30 season. That being said, he is also the most volatile name on this list. Because of the talent around Kittle, he could see less opportunities to get touches. George only had 65 receptions last year, marking him at a 10.1% Target Share for the 9ers offense - and he made the most of it by big gains with a few TDs. Can it be sustained? I'm not so sure - don't be surprised if the next few names on this list jump him in the season-ending rankings...
Sam LaPorta Detroit Lions 16 GP | 147.6 RSP | 188.9 TP | 0.75 RelVal | 11.81 VpGP | 86 Rec | 120 Targets | 889 Yds | 10 TD | TE4 Sam LaPorta is exactly what the Lions were looking for when they drafted him in 2023. He made a remarkable impact in his first season - and was easily the best Tight End in the NFC North. Through NFL Regular Season, LaPorta was on the field for 981 snaps - earning himself an 12.2% Target Share. Quite the start for a rookie - and it's only going to get better. LaPorta has shown immense growth in the year he's been in the Lions organization, and as the clear TE1 among the group - his usage will become more critical moving forward. That doesn't mean he will see more usage... just more EFFECTIVE usage. He may not be TE1 this year across the NFL, but I've seen a few experts predict that his career arc could emulate another TE on this list who has had a stranglehold on the TE1 spot for several years...
Jake Ferguson Dallas Cowboys 16 GP | 114.5 RSP | 133.7 TP | 0.53 RelVal | 8.36 VpGP | 71 Rec | 102 Targets | 761 Yds | 5 TD | TE7 The former Wisconsin Badger really pushed for the TE1 spot this year on the Dallas Cowboys after a limited rookie campaign last year. Ferguson battled rookie Luke Schoonmaker and Peyton Hendershot for snaps this year, but by Week 6 it was clear Jake was at the top of the depth chart for Mike McCarthy. His chemistry with Dak Prescott is growing too - as Ferguson saw his target share shoot up from 4.5% to 11.6%. That may have been due to their limited running game - only having Tony Pollard and a few RB3's in their backfield last season. Now that the Cowboys have Zeke back, I don't imagine the ground game will be as limited - but it won't be much better unless they can find a true RB2 to compliment Elliott. Still - Ferguson has huge upside as he's mostly battling CeeDee Lamb for targets in the passing game. You could make the argument he should be one of the Top 5 Tight Ends off he board - but there's still a huge gap between the Top Tight Ends in the league and where Ferguson is projected to be at this year.
Dallas Goedert Philadelphia Eagles 13 GP | 179 RSP | 107.9 TP | 0.53 RelVal | 8.3 VpGP | 59 Rec | 83 Targets | 592 Yds | 3 TD | TE18 Dallas Goedert saw his usage drop as the season wore on - but that was partially due to an injury where he missed four weeks in the middle of the year(starting with the Eagles Bye - Week 10). It wasn't the worst timing for him to miss play, but his snap share dwindled after his return, and it's not quite clear if it was injury related. Regardless of the season story for Goedert, he was still seeing a 10.3% Target Share during the season - meaning Hurts still trusts him. His numbers aren't expected to increase in regards to Target Share this year - especially with AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and now Saquon Barkley in the mix. Then again, defenses may be inclined to put their best defenders on the guys above, leaving Dallas in a mismatch. However you want to swing it - he has Top-10 upside for the 2024 season, but a very low floor. Caution advised before proceeding...
Dalton Schultz Houston Texans 14 GP | 93.5 RSP | 114.3 TP | 0.52 RelVal | 8.16 VpGP | 59 Rec | 88 Targets | 635 Yds | 5 TD | TE12 A shift from Dallas to Houston, Dalton Schultz was projected to be a top-target for Rookie QB CJ Stroud, but it didn't turn out to be all that he was expected. Schultz capitalized with 5TDs on the season, but he struggled in the early part of the year. That could be due to the new system, or the young QB... whatever the case, his usage stabilized in the second half of the season when it came to being on the field. Despite all that - Dalton was able to maintain an 11.9% Target Share on the season. With Houston building towards bigger and better things, Schultz will make his case for a future in Houston this fall. Schultz owners would love to see more targets - and even more conversions from the Texan TE, but Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs could push that needle in either direction. Let's see how his training camp and preseason go before we start doubling down on his upside, because (in my opinion) his floor is overshadowing his ceiling.
David Njoku Cleveland Browns 16 GP | 113.5 RSP | 164.7 TP | 0.65 RelVal | 10.29 VpGP | 81 Rec | 123 Targets | 882 Yds | 6 TD | TE8 Fantasy and Football writers have been waiting for David Njoku to take the next step as a premiere NFL TE since the year he was drafted - and he just hasn't surpassed that threshold. That doesn't take away from his freakish athletic abilities though. Njoku is the obvious choice for TE1 in Cleveland, taking 970 snaps in the regular season last year. His target share hit 12.7% - one of the highest among TE's in the league. He's still battling Amari Cooper for passes, but the Browns Receiver Room isn't as crowded as other TE's on this list - which tells me he has a better upside than some of them. Should that deter you from going after him this fall? I'd stick to a 5th or 6th Rd pick to land Njoku - anything higher and you might be missing out on a key fantasy player - QB1, RB2, or a WR with high-end upside. He's a big target for DeShawn Watson, and their running game will be a concern as Nick Chubb will be attempting to return from yet another gruesome knee injury. Maybe that pushes Njoku's upside high enough for you to take a chance on him if there's a run on TE's early... but that's a you decision.
Evan Engram Jacksonville Jaguars 16 GP | 128.1 RSP | 154.4 TP | 0.61 RelVal | 9.65 VpGP | 114 Rec | 143 Targets | 963 Yds | 4 TD | TE5 A new home has revitalized his career - Evan Engram is proving there is life after New York. After five seasons with the Giants, Engram pushed his limits in 2022, setting a career high in receptions and yards. Then last season (2023), Engram took the next step. The former Giant had another career year catching passes from Trevor Lawrence (who just resigned in Jacksonville). 114 receptions on 143 targets for 963yds (all Career-High's) and 4TDs. He was on the field for 854 snaps, earning himself a 15.6% Target Share - the best Target Share among TE's. To be honest, I think his upside is even higher than TE9, but he's going to have some tough competition to keep up with. However - if Engram can stay healthy, he may have one of the highest floor's among Tight Ends this fall.
Kyle Pitts Atlanta Falcons 16 GP | 88.9 RSP | 107.5 TP | 0.43 RelVal | 6.72 VpGP | 53 Rec | 90 Targets | 667 Yds | 3 TD | TE14 Kyle Pitts finally has a Quarterback (again). Can he prove the doubters wrong? Kirk Cousins has a strong affinity for his TEs - just look at his receiving corps over the years. There's always a TE sneaking into the Top 3... and I think Kyle Pitts has the chance to be the next name on that list. Pitts' rookie season was his best performance-wise, hauling in 68 passes on 110 targets for 1026yds and 1TD in 17 games... keep in mind, this was with Matt Ryan during his "farewell tour". This past year, Pitts caught 53 passes on 90 targets for 667yds ant 3TDs in 17 games from a handful of different quarterbacks. His 12.4% Target Share is quite high, but that's because he only logged 728 snaps through 18 Weeks - Jonnu Smith (652) and MyCole Pruitt (403) also earned snaps throughout the season. This fall, he will have another veteran QB tossing this TE group the pigskin - and I think there's going to be a lot of chemistry between Cousins and Pitts to uncover.
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