Tight Ends have been hard to predict over the years, because they typically don't make the same impact as your skill-positions. You occasionally come across one diamond in the rough who sets the league on-fire - like Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, or Travis Kelce. Then you see the huge drop-off to the next stars. Here, we will recap who my top targets are for the 2023 season - and who you might want to prioritize depending on where you are in the drafting order.
Travis Kelce - Kansas City Chiefs Kelce has been, and will be the ultimate Tight End until he leaves the league. His dominance at the position is second to none. Arguably one of the greatest to play the position - and he will definitely have the likes of Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Rob Gronkowski enshrined around him in Canton once he decides to hang them up. His 243.7pts last season would have put him 6th in WR scoring, and 7th in RB scoring. 2nd Place Scoring TE was none other than T.J. Hockensen, who posted an impressive 174.3pts this season (a career high). Kelce’s 1.04RV separates him in that category too - the next closest would be Mr. Kittle’s spectacular year where he posted a .79RV. The #1 TE will dominate once again this fall. Get him while you can - he’s typically gone by Rd 2.
Mark Andrews - Baltimore Ravens Mark Andrews has been quite the bailout for MVP Quarterback Lamar Jackson - who just signed a five year extension this offseason. Turning 29 this fall, we’re curious where Andrews takes his next step… especially with news that Lamar will be asked to throw more than he runs. Andrews had a lackluster year according to his numbers, struggling to find the endzone while not getting much YAC (yards after catch). Still, it pushed him to finish the season as the #3 ranked TE in the AJFFL, along with a 0.71RV. Not bad for a guy who didn’t have many NFL caliber WR’s around him all year. I’d take a swing at him having another uptick of a year. Give him the green light and a Late 2nd Rd/Early 3rd Pick if you have him around!
Dallas Goedert - Philadelphia Eagles Goedert had a phenomenal year - but scaled back in almost every category despite the Eagles making their historic Super Bowl run. That being said, missing five games doesn’t help. Goedert posted 95.8pts for a 0.59RV through 12 games last fall - good enough to find himself in the top-18 TE’s. Even with the regression, you can point to his injuries as to why he didn’t finish the climb. He’s also trending upwards with Jalen Hurts… one thing to note is that Goedert has never really been much of a threat in the red zone. He’s scored a total of 19 times in five years, with only three 6-point celebrations last year. If he can stay healthy, he will be another top-tier TE. But it’s apparent that he won’t be adding to your totals in the endzone. Reliable? Absolutely. But he won’t be a boom/bust candidate this year.
Evan Engram - Jacksonville Jaguars The anomaly Tight End of the season - but his numbers and connection with Sunshine (Trevor Lawrence) makes it look like there was no mistake. Evan Engram had himself a career year lining up in Swampy Jacksonville, but he climbed the rankings in every way you could imagine. In his sixth NFL season, Engram set a career high in Games Played (17), Starts (14), Receptions (73), and Yards (776), while posting 4 TD’s and no fumbles. It resulted in 132.3pts this past season, and an impressive 0.56RV for a lock at #5 on the TE Rankings. But after just one year in Florida, does Engram continue to expand his skillset? Absolutely. He turns 29 right before the season starts, and carries a minor injury history. To take a swing at this potential Top-5 TE, you’ll be fishing in the 5th Rd or later. But he may be the steal of the draft.
T.J. Hockenson - Minnesota Vikings Minnesota is putting a lot of stock into their Tight End this year. So much stock, theat they decided to CUT RB Dalvin Cook in order to provide more passing support to Kirk Cousins. Never in a million years did I think I would write that… cut Cook for Kirk… but that’s where we stand. Hockenson is slated for a big payday this fall, and Justin Jefferson is really the only other qualified pass catcher on the team currently. Could Hockenson be in-line for a Travis Kelce-esque year? Possibly. But in order for that to happen, Minnesota needs to be able to get the ball out of the backfield - something that Cook was able to do and create space for Cousins. With Mattison being the leader now, does Minnesota go out and secure someone like Ezeikiel Elliot? Possibly. Don’t count them out yet, but you can expect Hock to be a main-focus for this offense unless they make another big splash before Training Camp.
George Kittle - San Francisco 49ers The West-Coast TE who is near the top of everyone’s charts is once again gearing up for a big season. Now that Christian McCaffery is on board in the Bay Area, San Francisco doesn’t NEED an elite Quarterback… they just need someone who can get the ball off before the defense gets to the backfield Deebo Samuel, Brandon Ayiuk, George Kittle, AND MORE… what else do you need? Kittle is in line for another big year, after posting 162.7pts in 14 games last year, repping a 0.79RV and sliding in at #4 in the ZRankings. What more can you ask for? Expect Kittle to be flirting with a top-5 finish. He will be gone before some guys above him on the list, so don’t panic if you still need a TE in Round 5 or 6…
Juwan Johnson - New Orleans Saints You could call it an anomaly year, but Juawn Johnson would say otherwise. His big season in New Orleans ended with 117.5pts in 15 games for a 0.54RV. Quite impressive for an undrafted free agent signing… but what could you do when your other option was Taysom Hill - who was splitting time as a Starting QB just one year prior? For a back-filled player, Johnson’s year was off-the-charts. He even finished as the #6TE in the NFL last year. With a full off-season regiment and enough time to mentally prepare for this fall, don’t be surprised if Johnson takes another step towards Top-End Tight-End Talent. He did just sign a two-year deal with NOLA this March…
Dawson Knox - Buffalo Bills Many people had high-hopes for Dawson Knox. And while he did finish the season as TE#7, he just didn’t impress the way most people expected Josh Allen’s starting TE to impress. He finished his 2022 Campaign with 48 receptions for 517yds and 6 TD’s… three shy of his career high (1 catch and 70yds shy of career highs in other categories). That being said, it’s not like he regressed this past year… he just didn’t hit expectations. His 0.53RV was low, but quite average for the league. He would be a good TE to fill and keep you competitive - a “solid role player”, if you will. But he won’t be a game-breaking TE like most championship teams have these days.
Zach Ertz - Arizona Cardinals 32 Year Old Zach Ertz is gearing up to play another season with the Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. One thing to note… Arizona is slowly losing talent around their offensive tree. Ertz is aging, Hopkins is gone, and James Conner has struggled to be the RB1 they need. Ertz’s career has had two stops - one with a ring (Philadelphia in 2017) and now Arizona. Ertz only suited up in 10 games last year, logging four TD’s and 94.8pts for a 0.65RV. If he were able to keep it up for all 17 games, he’d be a lock for your team. But in his last five seasons, Ertz has missed 16 games. His health could drop him from the Top-10, but he’s got the talent to make it here.
Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons The athletic freak that Kyle Pitts is could finally see a major breakout season. He missed seven games last year, but he’s had an entire year to study the playbook. And he’s stepping back into the picture at just the right time… Bijan Robinson is fighting for time in the backfield, while Drake London makes a name for himself on the outside. Kyle Pitts will bring lots of relief to both of these playmakers, and should be able to double his points total from last year (71.0pts). Don’t let his finish from last year deter you (0.44RV, #22 TE)... He can be your gamebreaking TE once this offense finds their rhythm.
Honorable Mentions: Chig Okonkwo (TEN), David Njoku (CLE), Tyler Conklin (NYJ)
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