It's not all too often you see a lot of movement year-after-year in the "Elite WR" group in the NFL. It's going to be much of the same for this years group too - we have a few guys who are making a case for themselves to be a Top-10 guy, and some players who are on the fringe of greatness. Let's take a look at who we're predicting to finish the 2024 season strong!
Receptions Targets, Yards, and TDs were pulled from CBS Fantasy, Snaps Logged* were pulled from FootballGuys, and all other stats** are pulled from the AJFFL Database.* = Snaps logged during the NFL Regular Season (Weeks 1-18)
** = Games Played is based off of the AJFFL 17 Week Schedule, foregoing the final week of the season for calculation purposes.
*** Target Share = Targets / Snaps Logged
Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins 15 GP | 317.6 TP | 292.6 RSP | 21.27 VpGP | 0.84 RelVal | 119 Rec | 171 Targets | 1799 RecYds | 13 TD Cheetah hasn't seen much change around him this offseason when it comes to the huddle, and he's hoping the game-plan stays similar to last year's play calling. Tyreek Hill set personal bests for Targets, RecYds, and tied his Receptions best. What is most impressive is his target share - Tyreek was getting the ball about 25% of the time he was on the field last season (24.6%) The biggest challenger for him this upcoming season will be RB DeVon Achane, although it's a totally different approach with him. Although he has turned the page on his age-30 Season, Tyreek should still dominate the aerial attack in Hard Rock Stadium. I still think he can threaten for WR1 this fall - barring injury, of course.
Ja'Marr Chase Cincinnati Bengals 15 GP | 217.9 TP | 203.9 RSP | 14.53 VpGP | 0.69 RelVal | 100 Rec | 145 Targets | 1799 RecYds | 13 TD Ja'Marr is looking to bounce back after an uneventful 2023, and you could say it was the Jake Browning effect. That's not a slight at Browning - but there's quite the drop-off between the second-string QB in Cincy and Joe Burrow. Burrow's 2021 season saw a RelVal of 0.82, and it improved to 0.89 in 2022. His 2023 was cut short due to injury, turning out a 0.56 RelVal in 10 games... Browning took over, and wasn't much different - he topped out at a 0.62 RelVal in eight games. So would you say Ja'Marr is in for a redemption season? I'd say he's hungry for one... his rookie season saw a 0.60 RelVal that jumped to 0.79 in 2022 - before falling to a 0.69 this past season. Chase was able to pull a 16.3% Target Share this past year - a slight setback compared to 16.9% in 2022, but an improvement on his rookie season of 13.6% - meaning he's being trusted with the ball more. With Joe Burrow looking to bounce back and take the Bengals back to the playoffs, I'd expect Burrow to lean heavily on his connection with Ja'Marr.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions 15 GP | 251.5 TP | 189.1 RSP | 16.77 VpGP | 0.79 RelVal | 119 Rec | 164 Targets | 1515 RecYds | 10 TD If you didn't think ARSB was a top WR, you couldn't be more wrong. ARSB has shown us year-after-year that he should be in the Top-5 conversation. Because for the second consecutive year, ARSB has improved his game - A LOT. His 0.35 RelVal in 2021 was not only his rookie year, but Dan Campbell's first year as the Lions HC. He's turned this franchise around, and ARSB is one of the staples holding it all together. He nearly doubled production in 2022 to a 0.64RelVal, and this past year jumped up again to a 0.83RelVal. His 16.2% Target Share isn't a world-beating number, but it is common among the top Target Share Percentage's you can find among the WR group. With Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta emerging on the Lions offense (along with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs) they're loaded, and can be one of the most explosive teams in the NFL. Draft him early, and watch Ben Johnson work his magic... it's going to be a fun season for the Sun-God.
CeeDee Lamb Dallas Cowboys 16 GP | 312.7 TP | 237.7 RSP | 19.54 VpGP | 0.92 RelVal | 135 Rec | 181 Targets | 1749 RecYds | 12 TD Dallas doesn't have much help to move the ball downfield, and CeeDee is their number one guy. That's the entire premise of the upcoming season - unless someone emerges and outperforms expectations. Don't get me wrong, it happens more often than not - but I just don't see Dallas being the same unstoppable force they were last year. Lamb, Elliott, and Ferguson are their top three skills players at each position (WR, RB, TE). I think that means Lamb can expect to lead the league in targets once again - beating out Davante Adams (175), Tyreek Hill (171), Garrett Wilson (168), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (164) for most targets last season. Without much else added to the WR room, he's clearly still WR1. I would expect Jake Ferguson to get more attention from Dak Prescott, but a TE's numbers are still no match for a top-tier WR.
A.J. Brown Philadelphia Eagles 16 GP | 243.2 TP | 216.8 RSP | 15.2 VpGP | 0.76 RelVal | 106 Rec | 158 Targets | 1456 RecYds | 7 TD A.J. Brown had a career-year in Philly in regards to his usage - his production fell short in a few categories, but it was an impressive year nonetheless. Brown's 15.5% Target Share lead the Eagles locker room - and his targets were near the top of the league. He did lose some points to QB Jalen Hurts though - that Philly Tush Push has stolen a lot of points from his skills position teammates, and padded Jalen's own stats. Regardless - Brown's ability to draw #1 matchups against the top CB's in the league (and win) is why Hurts trusts him with the ball. The Brown/Smith duo will be a force again, and Brown should be one of the top WR's of the board - first or second round easily.
Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 GP | 251.3 TP | 205.0 RSP | 15.71 VpGP | 0.74 RelVal | 79 Rec | 136 Targets | 1255 RecYds | 13 TD Baker Mayfield is cooking up something in Tampa, and Mike Evans is currently his go-to guy. Mayfield signed a three-year deal in March, and if you're a Mike Evans fan, it means one more year of 1k RecYds and at least 100 targets. The Buccaneers offense was a pretty even split in the ground to air attack, with Evans seeing 136 of Baker Mayfield's 566 passing attempts. That number of passing attempts regressed from Bowels' first season, but he also had Tom Brady under center... things were a bit different. That being said - Evans still posted a 15.8% Target Share in 2023, and with not much changing in the backfield for the Buccs, I'd expect that number to go up this fall.
Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings 9 GP | 142.2 TP | 98.8 RSP | 15.8 VpGP | 0.75 RelVal | 68 Rec | 100 Targets | 1074 RecYds | 5 TD You'd expect Justin Jefferson to be higher on this list because of what he can do to a game - but I'm going to drop him a few spots compared to some "fantasy experts". I think JJettas is a great player, but he has a rookie QB (McCarthy) behind an unproven veteran (Darnold) to start the year. Now, I'm not claiming to be an expert by any means, but let's look at the cards... I would say he's the first guy who has the potential to fall into WR25 or lower territory. The proof is with the Target Share in my opinion - he was hauling an 18.2% Share last year with Cousins throwing, and Hockenson at TE. So I'd still take the chance on him and draft him in the first round, second round at worst - but don't be surprised if there's slight regression.
Stefon Diggs Houston Texans 16 GP | 212.1 TP | 194.8 RSP | 13.26 VpGP | 0.63 RelVal | 107 Rec | 160 Targets | 1183 RecYds | 8 TD Diggs is in a new huddle once again in his storied career - and he's ready to try and push this young Houston team to another level. At least... that's how the Houston media is trying to push it. I think Diggs is revealing how much of a locker room problem he might be... a "Give me the ball" guy in all situations. That's not team-ball. And That might be why he was sent off from Buffalo where he had a fantastic run as their WR1... Most of the reason was financials, but there definitely could have been another motive. Diggs' 16.9% Target Share in 2023 supports the claim that he likes the ball in his hands - but that isn't necessarily by his demands. He is a really good WR. It was a slight drop compared to his 18.4% Target Share in 2022, but now he's on a new offense that can move the ball. His Target Share may drop a little bit this year, but I don't think his explosiveness will...
Garrett Wilson New York Jets 16 GP | 166.2 TP | 142.2 RSP | 10.39 VpGP | 0.49 RelVal | 95 Rec | 168 Targets | 1042 RecYds | 3 TD It's been two really painful years for Garrett Wilson and the New York Jets fans. But I think this is the year he finally gets to put his best foot forward - Garrett Wilson will be a Top-10 WR this year. Aaron Rodgers is working back to form according to Jets Beat Writers, and his chemistry with Wilson is gushing. Mike Williams is also a standout in practices, while Breece Hall dominates the run game. Last year was a different offense around Wilson, as he pulled in a 19.0% Target Share. I don't think that's realistic this year, given the players around him now. A low floor is definitely in the conversation still - and that can be blamed on his inability to break out so far in his young career. That doesn't mean anything about his ceiling though - which may be the highest of all WR's in the state of New York.
Zay Flowers Baltimore Ravens 16 GP | 176.5 TP | 137.5 RSP | 11.03 VpGP | 0.52 RelVal | 77 Rec | 108 Targets | 858 RecYds | 5 TD He's officially listed at WR1 on the Ravens Depth Chart - and he's expected to have an even bigger impact compared to his rookie season. Now the question is - how does Todd Monken want to play the Ravens offense? He's seen Lamar run. He's seen Lamar throw. Can Lamar hand-off and play-action well? He finally has a couple of stars to pick from (King Henry and Mark Andrews), not to mention the breakout sophomore Zay Flowers. Easily the lowest Target Share among all the leading WR's (11.9%), Flowers battled with Mark Andrews and Lamar's scrambles all of last year. This year, Derrick Henry has been added to the battle for touches. That being said - I think Zay has an incredibly high ceiling still. His small frame is great for slot screens, or quick hitting routes to get Lamar out of trouble. Something he excelled at last year - and will probably be in a similar role again this year. Lots of chances, maybe even a few designed handoffs... I don't see why you wouldn't want the WR1 from one of the NFL's top offenses on your team.
Honorable Mentions: Brandon Aiyuk (SF), DJ Moore (CHI), Davante Adams (LV)
Comments