We are turning the corner to the homestretch. Have you done your homework? Are you ready to draft? There's only a few more weeks until you stake your claim to the league. It's best you start drawing out your roadmap to the championship - and this may be the next best spot to start. This list will consist of players who have high upside with a mid-round to late round pick, but won't disappoint you too much if they don't hit their metrics. This is your 'Play It Safe' guide to the 2024 draft:
LDP = Last Drafted Position | GP = Games Played | TP = Total Points | VpGP = Value per Game Played | RelVal = Relative Value
Michael Pittman Jr. Indianapolis Colts 15 GP | 196.8 TP | 13.12 VpGP | 0.65 RelVal | 9.05 LDP | WR12 Michael Pittman is a valuable WR who finally earned his payday - albeit for three years, but he got paid. Now, he's going to have to earn it with Anthony Richardson throwing to him. Pittman is a quick WR with great hands - he's seen two 1000yd seasons and one 100+ Reception Season (2023, had 99 Receptions in 2022 and 88 in '21). With his numbers going up and his usage clearly defining as WR1 numbers in Indy - the only reason I'd stay away from Pittman at 7th Rd Value is due to his TD Dependency. He's averaging 72Yds and 7 catches per game - that's only 10.7pts in the AJFFL. He's going overperform and see regressions to that all season, but is that worth the pick? That's for you to decide - I'm keeping my options open.
DeAndre Hopkins Tennessee Titans 16 GP | 180.0 TP | 11.25 VpGP | 0.56RelVal | 9.03 LDP | WR16 You're looking at a very similar situation for DHop in Tennessee that Pittman has in Indy. Clear WR1 role, but is the offense sufficient enough for it to match the value of the pick? The Average 7th Rd Pick in the AJFFL is at a 9.49 VpGP, and a 7.5pts VpW... sounds like Pittman and Hopkins might be worth the risk based on those numbers. One thing to take into account with Tennessee - they are also seeing a new offense emerge. Tony Pollard is now the lead back for the Titans after Derrick Henry left for Baltimore - so this may be a more pass-heavy offense with Will Levis under center. The preseason will tell us more, but I don't see any issues with DHop taking a 7th Rd Pick this August.
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals 10 GP | 155.46 TP | 15.55 VpGP | 0.56RelVal | 7.03 LDP | QB24 Here's the case for Burrow: one great season, one ok season... and an injury history. Bengals Beat Writers are saying the Bengals fate rests on Burrow's health - if he can stay in the lineup, they will be contenders to end the Chiefs dominance in the AFC. If Burrow has to ride the season out on IR, their offense will mostly be channeled through Chase Brown and Zack Moss. So what about Burrow? Is he worth a 5th Round Keeper? Quarterbacks drafted in the 5th Round of the AJFFL in the past consist of Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott.... I think Burrow is better than both of those guys - when healthy. So the assessment really comes down to 'do you think he will play?'
Quinten Johnston Los Angeles Chargers 15 GP | 259.9 TP | 17.33 VpGP | 0.62RelVal | 11.12 LDP | WR78 QJ is being thrust into WR1 responsibility with Josh Palmer - but has he learned how to catch the ball? He has great top speed, but it's worthless if he can't hang on to a pass. The Chargers gained former Ravens RB's Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins in the backfield to replace the loss of Austin Ekeler, while also adding DJ Chark to the WR Depth. The Chargers also lost TE Gerald Everett to Free Agency, but they did add Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst to their huddle. With all that in mind, QJ seems like a bit of a risk, considering how many passing options Herbert should have this fall. I do think he holds a great Keeper Value in 9th Rd, but you can probably find Johnston on the 11th or later rounds if you'd rather take the chance and wait.
Dalton Kincaid Buffalo Bills 15 GP | 103.9 TP | 6.93 VpGP | 0.44RelVal | 10.05 LDP | TE13 Dalton is listed as TE1 over Dawson Knox, and I'm fully expecting it to be Kincaid and James Cook carrying this offense in 2024. Josh Allen will still be chucking the ball from the pocket, and Khalil Shakir can only do so much on the outside. Kincaid will become a favorite target by years end in a similar role to Mark Andrews. Dalton earned 91 targets and 73 catches in his rookie season, and my guess is that number is only going up. I'd expect Kincaid to be off the board around Round 5, so an 8th Rd Pick for him is a steal in value.
Kyren Williams Los Angeles Rams 16 GP | 90.0 TP | 5.63 VpGP | 0.36RelVal | UDFA LDP | RB7 Kyren Williams literally came out of nowhere to take over the starting job in LA. He finished as RB7 in the league after starting the season in a RBC. Now, he's battling Blake Corum for touches and I'm not sure who I like more in that offense. Kyren absolutely could be a one-hit wonder RB - especially with the expectations for Corum despite his underwhelming draft profile. Williams would take a 13th Rd Pick in the draft as a UDFA, unheard-of territory to draft a RB1 (or even RB2), however his usage and health remain to be seen.
Rashee Rice Kansas City Chiefs 16 GP | 175.3 TP | 10.96 VpGP | 0.54RelVal | 16.06 LDP | WR31 Rashee Rice found a rhythm with Patrick Mahomes near the end of 2023/into the postseason. He was the clear WR1 on KC's Depth Chart until they signed Marquise "Hollywood" Brown this offseason. Pair that with his legal/off-field issues and potential suspension, is he worth the extra money to have him on your team? It's hard to argue against a guy who's more than likely going to be challenging for WR1 reps on a high-scoring offense, but for him to sit on your bench for 4-6 weeks while costing you money... is that going to be worth it? We've had a few owners who bit the bullet on suspended players, and it hasn't seemed to pay off yet. Rice is a gamble, and it could pay off ten-fold to have a top-25 WR drafted in the 14th Rd... or he could be a 14th Rd Pick who you drop after Week 10 because he still hasn't made an impact on your season. The latter would me much more painful because he would have cost you more money to stash on your bench vs picking him up after the draft.
Ezekiel Elliott Dallas Cowboys 16 GP | 138.4 TP | 8.65 VpGP | 0.38RelVal | 10.12 LDP | RB32 This loaf of bread has returned to Dallas with the intention of being RB1 again. Zeke struggled with New England last year - along with everyone else associated with their franchise. Elliott totaled 184 rushes and 51 catches on 65 targets for a surprising 46.2% Target Share - but a pathetic line of 955 All-Purpose Yards and 5 total TDs. It was easily Zeke's worst professional season to date according to statistical metrics - and he might agree with you on a personal note. Now he's back in a familiar offense with Dak Prescott under center - and I can see him returning to his former self - although it won't be as big of a role as it used to be. I'd say Zeke can hit the 1k All-Purpose Club again this year, which would make an 8th Rd Pick for him a bargain.
De'Von Achane Miami Dolphins 10 GP | 164.6 TP | 16.46 VpGP | 0.73RelVal | 11.06 LDP | RB25 Achane burst on to the scene last year (literally) with 460 Rushing Yards on 38 carries through his first four NFL games - finding the endzone seven times in that stretch. Unfortunately he saw limited playing time through the rest of the season due to a lingering knee injury - but he's back and battling Raheem Mostert for touches in the Miami Dolphins backfield. Think about it - Tyreek Hill and De'Von Achane blazing down the sidelines together as the fastest duo in the league... For the low-low price of a 9th Rd Pick, De'Von Achane is a valuable player to put on your wish list ahead of your fantasy draft!
DeShaun Watson Cleveland Browns 6 GP | 92.80 TP | 15.47 VpGP | 0.55RelVal | 16.05 LDP | QB30 When DeShaun Watson is playing, he's a middle-graded QB on a dangerous offense. He's may have one or two outstanding performances, but he's not the player he used to be. Watson isn't the most responsible with the ball, but he can make plays happen when he needs to. And getting a starting QB in the 14th Rd of the draft isn't a bad start to your Fantasy Draft - it's just a matter of if you can find a QB to take the primary reps over Watson. He'd be a great QB2 to fill in on a bye week... better than Jarrett Stidham.
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