Last year's rookie class was impressive, to say the least. Now, turning away from their Rookie Seasons and into their more formative years on the roster, let's take a deeper dive at who is trending to have a breakout year coming into the 2024 season.
Bijan Robinson - Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan was drafted in the first round in both the NFL Draft, and the AJFFL Draft - but he was an underwhelming rookie to say the least. Given the lack-of-depth in Atlanta, Bijan was almost a shoo-in for the starting role. Unfortunately, Arthur Smith wasted what could have been a very intriguing offense. Despite the struggles, Bijan did ok for himself as a starting RB - he accumulated 976 Rushing Yards on 214 carries, but his lack of Rushing TD's is what kept him from breaking into the "Elite" category out of the gate (4RuTD's in 2023). Smith was relieved of his duties (the Falcons fanbase was also relieved) before hiring former Atlanta Falcons assistant (and former Interim Head Coach) Raheem Morris as the team's new HC. Morris is more experienced on the defensive side of the ball, which is why he brought over fellow LA Rams coach Zac Robinson to lead the charge as his OC. Lots of things can change in the coming months before the season, but you can expect Atlanta to be desperately searching for a QB while they put the rock in Bijan's hands. I fully expect Bijan to take a massive step in the right direction - I'm predicting over 1000yds (barring injury, of course). Although Robinson has fumbled nine times over the last four years (five of those coming in college - four with the Falcons) - that shouldn't worry the Falcons rebuild... not yet, at least. His progress is moving in the right direction.
Rashee Rice - Kansas City Chiefs - WR Rashee, please. Drafted in the 2nd Round by the reigning NFL Champs, Rice found a role with the Chiefs relatively quickly. It helps when there's a lack of competition in the room - but Rice is proving to be one of the good ones. Rashee finished the AJFFL Regular Season as WR31 - but most of his usage skyrocketed after the middle-point of the season last year. According to the depth charts, Rice has ousted Kadarius Toney from the top spot, and is slated as WR1 in KC. Justin Watson, Sky Moore, Mecole Hardmon, Richie James, and Justyn Ross all saw the field, but Rice is different. His 79 receptions and 7 RecTDs were both rookie records for the Chiefs, while finishing second in franchise history for RecYds by a rookie (938yds). His size, first step, and ability to attack the ball is starting to put DB's on notice - and it might be too late... he's already earned Patrick Mahomes' trust. This could be the next deadly combo for years to come. Rice can be slotted as a Top 25 WR in fantasy next year... just wait.
Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts QB ARich can be an elite QB - if he can stay healthy (and learn to protect himself). He played in four games this past season before needing shoulder surgery - but his three complete games were not concerning in the slightest. Yes, he was a rookie and made a few bad reads... but his talent is there. For what it's worth, his four fantasy performances outscored Aiden O'Connell's 10 games, Ryan Tannehill's nine games, and Jimmy Garoppolo's six games... Indianapolis has a decent WR room that's only going to get better this offseason, and it would be great to hang on to Jonathan Taylor for anther season or two given the QB situation. What concerns me is his aggressive running style. He sees the field like Lamar Jackson, but runs like he's Adrian Peterson. That's not a good combo for a QB in the NFL... we'll see how his year 2 pans out, but I'm calling for him to be a Top 15 QB in 2024.
Chase Brown - Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon is expected to be a cap casualty for the Bengals this year. That doesn't mean Chase Brown is guaranteed anything, but it would not surprise me if he transitions into a "Tony Pollard" role for the Bengals. If the Bengals do part with Mixon, you can expect them to go after a veteran RB in Free Agency and not the draft. That would give Brown a chance to prove his worth - and gain some experience. He played in 11 games last year, but was a starter in only a handful of them. Brown racked up 335 All-Purpose Yards on 14 receptions and 44 carries. Not exactly ground-breaking numbers, but to compare - Pollard's first year had about double the touches with just over 1.5 times the yards (101 touches for 562yds). If Cincy is able to lure a top Free Agent back, Brown's draft stock in fantasy football could rise substantially. We still have the NFL Draft to see how things settle, but don't sleep on Brown just yet... he could be the next guy to come out of nowhere.
Jalin Hyatt - New York Giants WR He has a chance... but he needs some help. Mostly from the QB's in New York. Daniel Jones struggled when he was on the field last year, and he got hurt early so there was plenty of inconsistency to blame. The latest Mock Drafts show the Giants drafting a backup QB by the name of McCarthy... which would be great for NYG Wideouts. Hyatt was a standout WR at Tennessee in 2022 - his speed and separation made it difficult for college DB's to cover him - and his size and hands made it nearly impossible to defend. Jalin saw action in all games last year, and posted several goose-eggs (seven performances without fantasy points)... but you can say that was the rookie working his way into the game-plan. He saw three games over 10pts in the AJFFL, and his usage started to go up as the season wore on. His final line for 2023 reads 23 catches on 40 targets for 373yds and no TD's... yet he's somehow found his way into relevancy in the WR Room for Brian Daboll. Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson are still listed above him on the official depth charts, but all three of these WR's wrapped their seasons relatively close to one-another in offensive production. Slayton hauled in 50 passes on 79 targets for 770yds and 4TDs, while Robinson captured 60 passes on 78 targets for 525yds and 1TD. Slayton has one year left on his deal at $12M, while Robinson and Hyatt still have three more years on the books. Don't be surprised if the Giants look to get more competition in their WR Room this offseason - whether that's via Free Agency or the Draft. There are plenty of other places to point the finger and say "The Giants NEED to upgrade ___", but you can't get everything you want in one swing. Hyatt should see more usage this fall - not a gamebreaker by any means... but don't be surprised if he's finishing the year above either Slayton or Robinson in regards to offensive production.
Honorable Mentions:
Quinten Johnston - Los Angeles Chargers WR
What a fall from grace... Johnston was supposed to be the answer for when Mike Williams or Keenan Allen stepped away from the Chargers. Instead, his Rookie Year consisted of immense struggles to catch anything thrown his way. It got so bad, that Josh Palmer was promoted to WR2 (until his untimely injury) after Williams went down with another season-ending injury in Week 2. "The Answer" has become 'The Problem' - and it's mostly because Johnston catches the ball with his body, and not his hands. Jim Harbaugh is hoping to fix that and get the guy who burned him in 2023's National Semi-Final to be the threat he was drafted to be - and that's going to be a very tall task for Johnston. With the current situation in LA of Ekeler potentially walking and the inability to afford both Allen and Williams, Johnston is already being thrusted into a crucial "sink or swim" role with Justin Herbert. That could lead to some more screen passes to QJ - something he excelled at in college. Here's my hot-take: I can see QJ stepping up and improving year by year, so you can count on a Top 50 WR Season from him - but don't expect him to be the threat Chargers fans were promised when he was drafted. Not yet... he's got some growing up to do still.
Demario Douglas - New England Patriots WR
There's a lot of speculation around Douglas as the Patriots are looking to right-the-ship. That being said... there's a lot of things that need to go their way to get back on track. The biggest offensive hurdle they will be dealing with this upcoming Free Agency/Draft season will be who's under center. Mac Jones has been underwhelming to say the least, but the next big offensive lapse for them to focus on could be either RB or WR. The Wide Receiver Room is potentially losing Kendrick Bourne and Jalen Reagor - both who've played for multiple teams during their careers. Bourne has appeared in 99 games over his seven year career in the NFL, totaling 264 catches for 3409yds and 21TDs - ten of which have come in the Red-White-and-Blue. Meanwhile, Jalen Reagor hasn't been anything substantial. The former 1st Rd Pick in 2020 has suited up in 56 games, but only had 1 start for the Patriots this past season. He's been unreliable - the dude just can't hang onto the football. In his four seasons, he's caught 79 passes on 148 targets for 937yds, 4TD's and 9 fumbles. With both of theses two guys (more than likely) on the outs, Demario Douglas will get his first true look as a Starter with Juju Smith-Schuster opposite him. Douglas performed fairly consistently during his rookie season - starting 7 games and suiting up for 14 while hauling in 49 passes on 78 targets for 561yds. The former 6th Rd Pick has proven he's just as efficient as the $15M Bourne, better than Reagor, and has a substantially smaller base-salary than both. Unless they decide to give more options to Mac Jones, Douglas should find himself on the field more than he was this past season - and I'd bet he takes that next step this fall.
Kendre Miller - New Orleans Saints RB
The New Orleans Saints are in cap-trouble. Before any major roster changes are made, they've already used up 98.98% of their 2024 Cap - with nearly $3M being dead-cap. Not only that, but they have the oldest Average Age in the NFL - and they were not good last season. Right now, there's a logjam ahead of Miller in regards to the RB Room. Alvin Kamara is still under contract for another two years, as is Jamaal Williams. Both of those guys are closer to 30 than 20, and that's why I'm putting stock into Kendre. Miller saw 8 games last year (missing a handful due to injury), but he was impresively productive in those games. Not groundbreaking, but his 41 rushes totaled 156yds and 1TD, while hauling in 10 passes for 117yds. 51 Touches for 273yds, or averaging 5.4 Yards every time the Saints trusted him with the ball is pretty good for a rookie. For comparison sake, Kamara was averaging 4.6Yards per Touch while Williams was gaining about 3Yards per Touch. So why didn't he get more opportunities? I couldn't tell you - I'm not in the huddle. What I can tell you - if the Saints trust Miller with more touches, you should fully expect a breakout season. His explosiveness, field vision, and football instincts remind me of a younger version of Kamara. Maybe not the same gamebreaking ability we've seen from Alvin in years past, but Kendre knows ball. Even with Derek Carr under center, Miller's opportunity to see more touches should go up if he can stay healthy. You should absolutely target him for the fall with a mid-to-late round pick - especially as the Saints appear to be retooling their WR room.
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