Lots of interesting takes, and I definitely have undervalued a few teams this year - but here's where I think each team will end up at the end of the 2024 NFL Season - starting with the playoff picture...
San Francisco 49ers (16-1) I feel like this is a fairly safe bet - the 49ers will continue to dominate the NFC and the West Coast. Reports are surfacing indicating Brock Purdy was still rehabbing his UCL halfway through the season in 2023 - explaining why he wasn't throwing many deep passes or challenging opposing defenses. Regardless of the reason, I think Purdy is in a safe enough offense that he won't need to be tested on a regular basis. CMC, Deebo, Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk is reportedly showing up to training camp - despite the Trade Request from earlier this offseason. I think San Fran has at least one more legitimate shot at a Super Bowl before they have to start addressing some of the contracts that's holding this team together. Until then, they're the NFC Favorite.
Detroit Lions (14-3) This is a hot take - not that the Lions will win the NFC North, but that they're going to be NFC2 (possibly NFC1) depending on how their young players fill out in their roles with year. Dan Campbell has revitalized this franchise and it's fanbase, but most importantly - this team believes in themselves. The Lions have always had a knack for "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory", and finding new ways to kick themselves while they were down. Since Jared Goff arrived to Detroit, this team has had a new purpose - and their NFC Championship run last year shows they are buying in. Brad Holmes added a few new pieces to help them build toward the ultimate goal this offseason - a Lombardi Trophy. This might be Detroit's best shot to bring home a title since before the 'Super Bowl' was coined.
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) I still think the Eagles are a Super Bowl Contender - especially with a new Power Back behind Jalen Hurts. This offense should be one of the most explosive in the league this year based on what the depth chart says. AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert is still quite the core to roll out every week. Philly's defense has also been quite impressive in the last few seasons, making the offense's job much easier. I think Philly can actually win the division this year, avoiding a monumental collapse late in the season. Dallas is falling off, and Washington/New York might be duking it out for the worst record in the league this year.
Atlanta Falcons (10-7) Straight outta left field, I'm calling Kirko Chainz to get the Falcons back into the postseason, just edging out Baker and the Bucc's. Atlanta may be punished for Free Agent Tampering, but Kirk Cousins will help them get back to the postseason. As a matter of fact, Cousins' is trending towards being healthy to start the season - coming after his season-ending Achilles tear in Week 8. Just like every new team, there will be some growing pains... but Atlanta could be a dark horse for a deep playoff run, depending on how things shake out.
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) I still think Dallas can be what every other teams wishes they could be... a playoff team. But a lot has to go in their favor for it to work out in 2024. Dak Prescott is under contract for one more season before another potential 'market reset' on QB contracts according to some Cowboys Beat Writers. If that's the case, that money will need to come from somewhere... Currently, the Cowboys don't have much depth on their offensive roster. I still think their top-end talent is in the "elite" tier, but it's a short list - and it's only getting shorter as the years go on. Can Dallas overtake the Eagles this year? It absolutely can happen again - especially if Philly runs into a wall the way they did last year. That being said, I see Dallas as the team closer to the edge of relevance - and this could be one of their final pushes for a Super Bowl with Prescott in town.
Green Bay Packers (11-6) I hate the Packers. I hate Jordan Love. But you gotta admit, they're looking better with Josh Jacobs and a healthy WR core... The only way I see them making the playoffs is if Jordan Love plays to his contract. Baker and the Buccs, Smith and the Seahawks, along with Stafford and the Rams will all be on the Packers heels. It's hard to predict some of these down-the-road matchups, but I think among the four teams: the Packers might just be the worst of the bunch. However, I'd like to see the NFC North stay competitive because it will only elevate the Lions' play down the road... selfish and not fantasy related, but I can't help but to root for the boys in Honolulu Blue.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) Baker Mayfield signed on for another 3-years in the Bay, and they're looking to make it back to the postseason. His biggest hurdle? Kirk Cousins and the newly revamped Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers have some WR depth still with Chris Godwin around for at least another season, while Mike Evans signed on for two more years with Tampa. Mix in the explosive Rachaad White, and the Buccs have a bit of a rhythm going on the offensive side of the ball. It's going to be a fun year for the Buccs, as long as their defense can float around the same metrics as last year - Averaging 19PPG Against, 2.8 Sacks per game, and 1.8 Turnovers per game.
Seattle Seahawks (9-8) Geno Smith is looking to right the ship after a tough 2023, but the biggest change came on the defensive side of the ball for Seattle. Pete Carroll has stepped away from the HC position and Mike MacDonald has taken over for Seattle - a move that is expected to revitalize their defense. Seattle's "12th Man" may become a big factor in games later this year - and I would absolutely look to draft the Hawks with a late round pick for a backup defense. Their metrics last year weren't anything to write home about, but if they buy-in to the new defensive system the same way Baltimore did... You can see why some Beat Writers are calling for Seattle to be a NFC West threat for the Wild Card.
Los Angeles Rams (8-9) I think the Matt Stafford Career-Arc is ending, and what better way to do it than by missing the postseason. The Rams have a decent defense and some standout players on their offense - but health is a major factor that's been concerning a lot of Rams Beat Writers. Stafford is aging, Cooper Kupp is getting flagged as a caution, saying his preseason will determine his usage this year due to his injury history. Kyren Williams is coming off a foot injury, reportedly his fourth in his young NFL Career. That would put a lot of weight on Puka Nacua and rookie Blake Corum to carry the workload - something Corum is used to, just not at this level. The Rams could be the threat I think Seattle might be - but let's get past the preseason before I dwell on this too long.
New Orleans Saints (7-10) They've gotten better! But they still suck. New Orleans was a dysfunctional football team last year - somehow finding a way to win 9 games. Their offense never really found a rhythm... Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, and Taysom Hill all took snaps last year, with Carr throwing for 3878yds, Winston for 264, and Hill for 83 collectively passing for 4225yds. Their running game was hit and miss - Alvin Kamara came back into the fold after missing the beginning of the season and totalled 694RuYds and 5TDs, while Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller combined for 462yds and 2TDs... Keep in mind, this is one year after Jamaal joined the 1k Rushing Yds club, while also leading the NFL in RuTDs. The Saints did shed some cap money, letting Michael Thomas hit the Free Agent Market - but they immediately spent that on the defense - adding Chase Young, Willie Gay Jr., and Will Harris. There is youth on the Saints that could help them turn this offense around - because the defense wasn't the problem last year.
Arizona Cardinals (6-11) Kyler Murray is trying to bounce back to his MVP-like self after a long 2023. Murray left the field in a Week 14 matchup against the New England Patriots in 2022 (December 14th) after tearing his ACL during a play. He spent the next ten months rehabbing and getting back to game-shape before getting the green-light to suit up in November 2023, where he performed above expected for someone returning with a non-contact injury. It lofted the Cards to the top of the draft, where they selected standout WR Marvin Harrison Jr., adding Zay Jones in Free Agency. Now, the story begins... Arizona has seen glimpses of excellence from Murray and RB James Conner, and with the new WR group of Michael Wilson, Zay Jones and rookie MHJ, this team could be building towards a brighter tomorrow. This year may be full of growing pains, though.
Minnesota Vikings (6-11) JJ McCarthy is projected to start the year... on the bench. That's through no fault of his own - Sam Darnold has looked like the better QB according to Vikings Beat Writers. It is a low bar, but McCarthy has been impressing the coaching staff in Minnesota. With all the good news, there's some bad news: the first team offense looks bad. Either that, or the first team defense is GOOD. Darnold struggled in their first pads practice, but there was one spotlight - Jalen Nailor is stepping up his game on the outside. Coaches have been pointing out he's winning contested catches more often than not - which could open the door for some creative offensive schemes with Jefferson, Addison and Nailor all performing at the top of their game. They'd have to get there first... but it would be an impressive offense to watch. Let's see how the rest of Training Camp goes before putting too much stock on the Vikings' ceiling though!
Carolina Panthers (5-12) They Carolina Panthers were in for a rough go last season, and the road to the playoffs doesn't look much easier - this year. After trading away everything and the kitchen sink to Chicago for Bryce Young, Carolina prepares to enter year 2 with the former Alabama product under center. The franchise did decide to revamp the coaching staff though... After one year in Tampa as the OC, David Canales was named the Carolina Panthers Head Coach this past January. What does this mean for Carolina? Well, Canales worked closely with Pete Carroll from 2009 through 2022 before heading to Tampa Bay to work under Todd Bowles. If he's able to bring the same explosiveness to the Panthers offense that was in Tampa, this team could look a lot different this fall. Two big improvements on the O-Line will help with that, courtesy of Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. However, most of the offseason was spent revamping the Panthers Defense... 12 of the 18 players signed this offseason are defensive players - with the majority competing for starting/rotation roles. Carolina could see a big step in the right direction this year, and targeting guys on this squad with late-picks might not be a bad idea if you're looking for keeper value. Don't go too crazy though, these players (most likely) won't be making an impact on your roster this fall.
Chicago Bears (4-13) There aren't many teams in worse shape than the Carolina Panthers, but the Chicago Bears might fit the bill. Even after reaping all the rewards from trading away a 1st Overall Pick to Carolina, the Bears are still rebuilding their team. Former 1st Rd Pick Justin Fields has been sent packing to Pittsburgh after the Bears drafted Caleb Williams this year, and a lot of fans are claiming he will single-handedly turn their franchise around. Beat writers... aren't so sure. Chicago also saw Darnell Mooney, Justin Jones, D'Onta Foreman, Trent Taylor and Equanimeous St. Brown hit the high-road, but they did make a few splashes in Free Agency. D'Andre Swift, Gerald Everett, Mercedes Lewis, Deandre Carter, and Dante Pettis all signed up for a year of "fun" with the Bears, while also making a few trades to replenish the WR group. Now the Bears have Williams, Swift, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett to cycle through the offense. There shouldn't be any excuses for Caleb in his rookie season... but it's the Bears, so **** 'em.
Washington Commanders (3-14) Jayden Daniels has been impressing everyone who shows up at the Washington Commanders Training Camp. He's hitting passes with accuracy, power, and is extremely composed while in the pocket... but that's all talk. Washington has had some tough luck when it comes to draft picks panning out in the last few years - they pick talent, but the talent doesn't always come through (or stay healthy). In the last three years, Washington's First Round Selections have averaged 13 games per season, mostly missing due to untimely injuries. They have re-tooled a bit yet again - adding Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz in Free Agency, drafting Daniels and bumping 3rd Year Running Back Brian Robinson Jr. to 2nd String. What's the ceiling for this team? I'd say 6 or 7 wins... so keep that in mind when deciding to draft a Commander.
New York Giants (1-16) If the GM losing his mind when Saquon Barkley left for a division rival wasn't convincing enough: this team is in DEEP ****. The Giants lost Darren Waller to retirement, but gained Drew Lock in Free Agency to back up Daniel Jones. Devin Singletary has found a new home in New York, replacing Saquon Barkley - while Malik Nabers looks to make an impact as a rookie in a very shallow WR core. Beat Writers are slotting Nabers in a Top-2 role for the WR room, sharing snaps with Darius Slayton as WR1 - but ahead of Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt. The worst part of the Giants situation? They have no cap room... they gave it all to Danny Dimes, who is slotted to eat a $47.9M Cap Hit this year. Desperation moves only for Giants players.
Comments