The 2023 NFL Season has officially wrapped up - and the playoffs are well underway. Now, we all get to point and laugh at exactly how far off I was on some preseason predictions! Every couple of weeks I'll have a reflection piece - starting with the Division Winners, trickling down to position player reviews and impacts. This is the long road back to Draft Day in the fall - so buckle up! The season may have just wrapped up, but next year's season has just begun... Without wasting any more of your time, let's take a look at how the 2023 Season wrapped up!
(Team - Record - Predicted Record)
AFC
AFC - North
Baltimore Ravens (13-4) (12-5)
Cleveland Browns (11-6) (7-10)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) (6-11)
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) (13-4)
Well this was quite the flop. I picked Cincy to win the AFC North - but when the Bengals started out flat (and then lost Burrow for the season), it became pretty obvious that this prediction was off. The big surprise though - the Browns at number two. DeShawn Watson pushed the team in the few games he was able to suit up - and Joe Flacco came in to keep the heartbeat alive in Cleveland. Pittsburgh once again pulled magic our of their @$$ and found not only an above .500 season, but another playoff berth. Mike Tomlin ended with the best division record in the AFC North, with the Steelers pulling off a 5-1 look against their rivals. Please don't ask me how, I'm just a fan of football - not an expert... and none of this makes sense. The biggest surprise (in my opinion) was Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers taking the division by storm this year - and found the #1 Seed in the AFC. A well deserved accolade for the NFL MVP candidate - let's see if they can add a Super Bowl Ring to their list of accomplishments in 2023.
AFC - South
Houston Texans (10-7) (0-17)
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) (13-4)
Indianapolis Colts (9-8) (4-13)
Tennessee Titans (6-11) (10-7)
I was so wrong about the AFC South... about EVERYTING! Jacksonville should have had a cake-walk to a division title - but Calvin Ridley and Trevor Lawrence couldn't do it alone. It didn't help losing Christian Kirk for several games - or Zay Jones. Still, their defense was underwhelming and they lost the division in the final game of the season going up against the Titans - who were also bad this year. You'd think Derrick Henry would have been able to carry that team once again, but lack of a consistent quarterback (and only one regular WR who met expectations) will do that to you. As a result, the Titans are one of the many coaching casualties in the NFL this season - along with King Henry expected to not re-sign. If he does, it will be a one-to-two year deal, for cheap. Tyjae Spears owners rejoice... Anthony Richardson impressed this year, despite not protecting himself. Had he stayed healthy, they might've won the South... and Indy has a bright future regardless. But so does first year head coach DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans. They surpassed ALL expectations, and earned themselves a playoff berth. Will this be good for them in the long run? Maybe. Only time will tell... Nico Collins, CJ Stroud, and Will Anderson definitely think so. Right now, it's their division to lose... but they've painted a big target on their back after this year's impressive 10-7 run.
AFC - East
Buffalo Bills (11-6) (13-4)
Miami Dolphins (11-6) (12-5)
New York Jets (7-10) (10-7)
New England Patriots (4-13) (4-13)
The AFC East was just as back-and-forth as the other two AFC Divisions mentioned so far. Buffalo started the year flat, and Miami was on a roll. The Jets lost their starting QB three plays into the season, and the Patriots had to deal with Mac Jones. Josh Allen ended up winning Fantasy MVP, but it was not how you expected him to get there. Stefon Diggs received just over 27% of all passes from Josh Allen - but Diggs still seems to be growing more and more frustrated with his time in Buffalo. Rookie Dalton Kincaid was next in line with 91 looks, and Gabe Davis rounds out the top-3 targets with 81 targets in 2023. Still, this division has three potential playoff teams in it - the Jets just need to figure out who's going to lead their QB room. I had the Bills and the Dolphins in control of this division all year, and only one of those two teams started hot enough to be labelled a contender at the midway point of the season. The Bills were able to turn it around and steal a Division Title, but you can expect Miami to come back with a vengeance. Tua will be back, the Bills will be a threat, and New England is preparing for a full teardown while the Jets want to retool (again). For what it's worth, I got the order correct on this one... just not the records.
AFC - West
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) (9-8)
Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) (10-7)
Denver Broncos (8-9) (4-13)
Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) (12-5)
OOF, I thought the Chargers were onto something. Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen... this team had the tools to do it, but Brandon Staley fumbled the bag so badly it left their team in shambles (and without a HC). Ekeler is expected to walk, and one of Mike Williams or Keenan Allen will likely be on their way out due to the cap-hit they'd carry for next season. So what's next for Justin Herbert? Nothing positive, at the moment. On the other hand, the Chiefs were able to steal the division (yet again). I should have known better than to doubt Patrick Mahomes - he makes everyone around him better. He's finally dialing in a more effective relationship with rookie Rashee Rice, but his bail out partner Travis Kelce is entering the final year(s?) of his career. They've got one more good run with this core left it seems, and then the division will be up for grabs. The Raiders and Antonio Pierce may be the team to chomp at that bit - he's turned around an abysmal franchise with poor attitudes from top to bottom - into a team that nearly snuck into the playoffs. They'd be stupid not to name Pierce as the official Head Coach... On to the other abysmal franchise, Sean Payton is trying to go full-rebuild with the Broncos and get rid of Russell Wilson just two years after trading for (and signing him to) a blockbuster deal. It's causing a lot of controversy in their locker room - and most reports say the players are siding with Russ... not a good look for a coach who's trying to win the room. They won more games than expected, but don't be surprised if they fall to the bottom of the league in an attempt to rebuild through the draft - just like the Saints did.
NFC - North
Detroit Lions (12-5) (12-5)
Green Bay Packers (9-8) (5-12)
Minnesota Vikings (7-10) (11-6)
Chicago Bears (7-10) (3-14)
HOW BOUT THAT, HUH? The Detroit Lions won their second Division Title in my lifetime, the first came when I was three months old. The Dan Campbell effect has flooded the streets of Detroit, and everyone seems to be chugging the Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid like their lives depend on it. This team is good - but they're not a juggernaut. Secondary is still shaky and needs to sort itself out, and the offense doesn't perform well on the road. It could make for a short postseason run, but it's the taste these boys need. The Lions will be back next year, just as (if not more) dangerous than 2023. I hate myself for writing this, but the Packers impressed too. Jordan Love showed why Green Bay spent a 1st Rd pick on him - he stole a few games for the Green and Gold with a rotating O-Line. Love hit the turf 30 times this year on 579 passing attempts - just as many as Jared Goff (who had 26 more passing attempts). Maybe you can blame the carousel of WR's he was throwing to, or maybe he just doesn't have the best vision. For what it's worth, Rodgers was sacked 32 times last year on 542 attempts last year in GB... meaning Green Bay may not be as far off as originally thought. The Vikings, on the other hand, are far off the mark. Kirko Chainz will be a free agent this summer - don't be surprised if he comes back on a one-year deal if the Vikes don't draft a QB. They have one of the most dynamic WR's in the game (Justin Jefferson), a rookie who exceeded expectations (Jordan Addison), a TE who 'wants to win' (Hockenson), and RB's with more to prove in Ty Chandler and Alexander Mattison. Defense was a question for them all year, but they played very poorly at home (2-6). You won't be a threat when you can't win on home turf - Home Field Advantage is an important thing in the NFL. Chicago surpassed expectations in the win column, but they were not a good looking team. Part of it was because their QB1 was hurt for a few weeks... others say it was the "Chase Claypool Effect". Claypool has found himself on teams that have collectively won six games over the last two seasons... rumors say his work-ethic rubs off on his teammates the wrong way. But it's never just one guy, and he's on Miami now (despite Chicago going 7-7 since trading him away). That being said, the Bears added Montez Sweat who generated 17 tackles, 8 assisted tackles, 4TFLs, and six sacks in nine games. Pretty impressive for a guy who's changing schemes mid-season. If they continue to add the right pieces, this team could be fighting Green Bay for a Wild Card spot as soon as next season.
NFC - South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) (4-13)
New Orleans Saints (9-8) (12-5)
Atlanta Falcons (7-10) (6-11)
Carolina Panthers (2-15) (7-10)
The NFC South was a bloodbath to begin with - and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to navigate their way to a postseason berth on the backs of their defense. That's not a shot at Baker Mayfield and company - it's a testament to how good that defense can be. They are a few seasons removed from a Super Bowl, so they've seen some turnover on their roster from both sides of the ball. But Todd Bowles has been keeping things together in an impressive manner - and they may have found a bridge QB until they can re-address their O-Line. The Saints were expected to take this division with Derek Carr, but we all saw how that played out. His stats from Vegas to NOLA improved slightly - but not enough to make a big impact (300 more PaYds, 1 more PaTD, 6 less INT's on 46 more passing attempts). Chris Olave and Kendre Miller are going to be the future of this team, according to my expert opinion (LOL). Honestly speaking, this team overachieved with the new system. They had a new QB, a WR who's played only a handful of games in the last three years back in the lineup, a new RB and a rookie RB - and they were still only one game away from taking the division. They could be the Darkhorse threat of the NFC South next season - if their draft class comes through. Atlanta has parted ways with Arthur Smith (SURPRISE!... not...), and that will be a huge boost to this offense. Smith's offense was underwhelming almost every game this year - they scored more than 25pts just four times this year - and lost two of those games. They scored less than 20pts eight times. They're going to need an overhaul - and a new HC will get things started for them. The Panthers will be bad yet again this upcoming season. They fired HC Frank Reich after a 2-15 season - like it was his fault Bryce Young had no one to throw to (or protect him from the pass rush). Not only that - but they have a lack of picks in this upcoming year, thanks to trading for Young. Their outlook (without any major trades) for the draft is their own 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Rd Picks, along with TEN 5th and SF 5th, plus ARI 6th... Yikes.
NFC - East
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) (12-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) (14-3)
New York Giants (6-11) (5-12)
Washington Commanders (4-13) (3-14)
Man, this division flipped on it's head down the stretch. The Cowboys were gifted a Week 17 win, giving them the chance to steal the division over Philly who went 1-5 down the stretch... and to many peoples surprise, that's exactly what happened. Rumors of Jason Kelce retiring could change the trajectory of the Eagles next few seasons - because some players are due BIG money the next few years, and it's going to make it increasingly difficult for Philly to rebuild that O-Line. As long as Matt Patricia is in Philly, I'm predicting them to be a Wild Card Team at best. Dallas stole another title, but their offense is also about to fall off. Dak looked like an MVP candidate starting the season off - but you better look good when CeeDee Lamb is your WR1. Brandin Cooks also impressed with his year in Dallas, but the RB Room needs improvement. Tony Pollard is a solid RB2 - but he was getting RB1 reps all year, and it showed they don't have everything figured out. Mike McCarthy may be asking for someone like Isaiah Davis (South Dakota State) or Tahj Brooks (Texas Tech) to pair-up with Pollard as a 1-2 punch - if Pollard remains the RB1. Luke Schoonmaker and Jake Ferguson both exceeded expectations - but as odd as this is going to sound, pass-catchers should exceed expectations when your QB is dropping back 35+ times per game. Their defense is what won them the division - and they should be a threat next year as well. The Giants let DC Don Martindale walk after a firey relationship with HC Brian Daboll. Their offense was lacking, but their defense was abysmal. Coach Wink was allegedly trying to undermine Coach Daboll by telling other coaches and players how to handle situations - despite clear direction from Daboll. The turmoil cost him his job - and potentially future opportunities. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes at least one season on the couch - kind of like a grown-up in timeout. Maybe he'll realize that football is a team game. A team who is also trying to get on the same page is the Washington Commanders. Poor Sam Howell was sacked the most in the NFL this season, finding chunks of grass in his facemask 65 times. He left several games early due to the beating, and they're going to desperately need to address the O-Line if they want to take any positive steps forward next season - offensively speaking.
NFC - West
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) (15-2)
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) (7-10)
Seattle Seahawks (9-8) (9-8)
Arizona Cardinals (4-13) (5-12)
San Francisco is exactly who you thought they'd be. A dynamic offense with tons of weapons, a stand-up defense, and a rookie kicker who capitalizes on his opportunities. As long as their core stays healthy, they're going to continue to wreak havoc on their opponents. The Rams and Hawks were the bubble teams, and LA did what they could to keep themselves alive. After starting 3-1, they lost their next five games and cruised into their bye week at 3-6. Coming out of the bye, they defeated Seattle, Arizona, and Cleveland before falling to Baltimore in a one-score game - improving to 6-7. If that doesn't provide the spark you need to make a playoff push, I don't know what will. The Rams would win their final four games to seal their spot as WC1 - and they looked damn good doing it. Seattle on the other hand... well, their season fell apart in the second-half. Heading into their Bye at 3-1, they had a high hopes at overtaking San Francisco who was also 5-2 through seven weeks. That's where the wheels fell off... The Seahawks would go 4-6 to wrap their season, losing five of their final nine games to playoff teams, while only defeating one team who ended up in the postseason. Their 2023 record vs Playoff Teams ended up at 3-7, with a massive point differential of -92. You could blame this on a lack of production from the offense, but they gave up 30+pts to playoff teams six times in their eight losses (SF scored 28 in Week 14...). Offense was lacking, and defense was absent. But they do have a change coming, as HC Pete Carroll has stepped down as coach - but will remain with the team in an administrative role. Maybe that means Geno Smith and the offense will find another spark. But one things for sure - Arizona needs Kyler Murray if they want to be competitive. They started their season 1-8 before Murray rejoined the team - where they would win two of their next four ahead of the Cardinals Bye Week. The only other high-note for this team was beating Philly in Week 17 - the Cardinals had abysmal performances against the Bears and the 49ers, and would get edged out by the Seahawks in Week 18 in what turned out to be a bragging-rights game for the both of them. All in all, this division is a mess at the bottom, and has some interesting competition up top. It would be quite the surprise if three teams from the NFC West find their way into the playoffs next year - but you can count on two of them to be contenders until the end.
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