It's real! It's good! It's real good! We're highlighting the Top-10 Free Agent Landings of the offseason (so far), and how it impacts their 2024 value coming into the season. This will only highlight the Offensive FA Signings - no trades (like the Stefon Diggs scenario). It's been a while since I had time to write - life has been busy. So without wasting any more time - let's dig in!
Kirk Cousins QB Atlanta Falcons The biggest signing of the offseason, in my opinion. Atlanta finally has their QB1. This could be exactly what the Falcons need - an experienced signal caller that can manage the game while under center. Drake London and Kyle Pitts stock skyrocketed after the signing became official, although I'm hesitant to put an overwhelmingly positive spin on their track records. There's still a lot to prove on this offense - especially with Bijan Robinson entering his second season. But from an offensive standpoint - they definitely made an improvement this offseason.
Derrick Henry RB Baltimore Ravens This was HUGE news - The King heads to Maryland. Both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards left town, leaving the RB1 hole wide open on the depth chart. That won't intimidate Lamar Jackson, but the coaching staff would much rather have a bruiser with the ball and not their star QB. Henry joining the already-dangerous Ravens offense improves their ceiling - as long as he can stay healthy. The Ravens are currently my way-too-early Super Bowl favorites for 2024, and King is back into my RB20 or above list.
Saquon Barkley RB Philadelphia Eagles The Philadelphia Eagles have been piecing things together with the scraps they have left over for the last two seasons, but this signing was HUGE for the birds. A true RB1, taking over for D'Andre Swift who left town for Chicago. Kenneth Gainwell will still see touches, but not nearly as many as he was splitting with Swift. Barkley, like Henry, is a dynamic power back. His vision and speed can overwhelm defenses - and I fully expect him to be a RB1 Title Contender this fall. It has a lot to do with that offensive line in Philly... just wait and see. Barkley could be in store for his fourth 1000RuYd season in his young career.
Josh Jacobs RB Green Bay Packers Jacobs went from being on the disgruntled radar to being in another heavy-usage offense. Green Bay leans on their RBs the way Matt Stafford leans on his WRs - and Jacobs is fully expected to be the RB1 for the Cheeseheads. After his breakout season in 2022, Jacobs regressed last year substantially - both in touches, yards, and TDs (233 Rushes / 805RuYds / 6RuTDs in 2023, 340/1653/12 in 2022). That was surprising to see - especially with Zamir White as the RB2 for the Raiders - a clear step-down compared to Jacobs. It could have been for several reasons - QB play, change in Head Coach, etc... That being said, Aaron Jones runs the same way that Jacobs does - powerful, agile, but most effective between the tackles. He's in for another big season in the NFC North.
Marquise Brown WR Kansas City Chiefs Hollywood was expected to have a spotlight on him after being traded from Baltimore to Arizona - he was filling the hole left by star wideout DeAndre Hopkins. In his two seasons in the desert, he didn't exceed expectations - just met them. No standout years from one year to the next... as a matter of fact, the best season of his career came in his final year in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson. That's not a coincidence, but now that he's moving to Kansas City - you can expect those numbers to climb. He will assume the WR1 role almost immediately after arriving to the Chiefs facility - with his only real competition being Rashee Rice. The returning rookie is dealing with some off-field issues, which should make it even easier for Brown to take over primary WR duties. His line last year read 51 Rec on 101 Targets for 574RecYds and 4RecTDs... very similar to his 2022 (61/107/709/3) and 2020 (58/100/769/8) stat lines. With Travis Kelce trailing off, and another planned RBC - Brown should find his most usage yet this fall. Expect him to be a top-target in the draft, and a career year in 2024.
Gabe Davis WR Jacksonville Jaguars One of the top blocking WR's has landed a gig with a QB who is still refining his game in the NFL - this will be an interesting combo. Gabe Davis is known to help RB's burn the edge and turn a 3yd run into a 13yd run - something that only helps the passing game down the line. He doesn't have the best hands according to his numbers (career 54.5% success rate on targets - 163 Rec on 299 Targets), but he also had a missile incoming from Josh Allen on almost every pass. He does score on a lot of deep balls though, something the Jag's have been trying to do to extend the field. Christian Kirk was a huge proponent of that, but now they have two viable downfield threats and a dangerous RB - I would be surprised if he didn't hit a career high in RecYds this year. Don't go expecting an MVP caliber year from Davis - he will be floating around WR40 at best. But you'll definitely want to grab him for your team this fall if he's available around Round 6 or 7 in your fantasy draft.
Calvin Ridley WR Tennessee Titans A DB-burner for sure - Calvin Ridley will try to help rekindle the Titans Offense this fall. His elite speed and Will Levis' arm could open up a lot of doors on this offense - as long as the O-Line holds true. Ridley didn't do anything overwhelmingly positive last year after returning from his 1-year suspension for gambling on NFL games - but he did eclipse the 1k RecYds mark for the second time in his career. Ridley turns 30 this fall, so most experts say he should be turning the corner on his production. I think we can see similar numbers to 2023 - when he went 76Rec/136Tar/1016RecYds/8TDs. Can he eclipse the 1k mark again? Absolutely! But his usage will heavily depend on how well this new offense clicks... Tennessee has a new RB (mentioned below), a new WR1, a new Head Coach, and a returning "rookie" who only started 9 games last year (and was hurt in 2 of them). Growing pains are expected, but he can still be a guy who lands in the WR25 range.
Tony Pollard RB Tennessee Titans From RB7 to RB11, Tony Pollard is showcasing why he belongs in the conversation for one of the most explosive RB's in the game. Even if you coin him a "system running back", that's two consecutive seasons on a pass-heavy team that he exceeded expectations. Outside of last season, his touches have increased year after year - along with his total yards... his 12TDs in 2022 were a career best. But just like Calvin Ridley, the new offensive scheme could (and most-likely will) set his production back for the first few games of the season. Don't expect a career season from him, but he should be the workhorse in Tennessee (take this with a grain of salt... especially with the NFL Draft right around the corner). Pollard has projections already floating around RB10, but I think RB15-20 is more suitable for his first year away from Dallas. Don't get me wrong - he will still be a top RB heading into your fantasy draft, but he could slip further than you'd expect...
D'Andre Swift RB Chicago Bears THIS GUY... where to even begin. His three seasons in Detroit where underwhelming at best. The former 2nd Rd Pick just couldn't stay healthy and was shipped off to Philly before having a career year for the Eagles. Career highs in Games Played (16), Rushes (229), Rushing Yds (1049RuYds), Touches (268), and Yards from Scrimmage (1263yds), but he also tied a career high in fumbles (3). He's now in Chicago, taking over for Dont'a Foreman and company - although Roschon Johnson is returning for his second year in the Windy City and will more-than-likely take over the powerback role. Swift could see the endzone more now that Jalen Hurts isn't stealing touches from him in the RedZone, but that is dependent on Roschon's path forward on this young offense. Swift finished this year as RB19, and RB24 in 2022... I'd be remiss if you say he see's a major drop off in production, but I don't think he exceeds any previous marks he's set. RB30-35 is a more likely range for Swift this fall - and you can expect to see him off the board around Round 5-7 in your fantasy draft.
Zack Moss RB Cincinnati Bengals After spending 2 1/2 years in Buffalo behind Devin Singletary, Zack Moss finally got a shot in Indianapolis with Jonathan Taylor's absence from the Colts lineup. He capitalized on that opportunity in 2022, and put in some respectable work in 2023 - setting career highs last year across the board. Now, he's in Cincinnati - taking over for Joe Mixon after he was moved to Houston... and it couldn't be a better situation for Moss. With Joe Burrow looking to bounce back after a rough year on Injured Reserve, Ja'Marr Chase and company are looking to expand their offense. What better way to do it than with a young, healthy, hungry RB who's looking to show what his former teams missed out on! Last year, Moss's line ended just shy of the 1k All-Purpose Yds mark (986yds), with 794 of those coming from rushing and only 192 RecYds. Expect those both to inflate this fall, as Moss is one of my sleeper picks for the year... I'm projecting an RB15-20 finish for the new Bengal, although he may fall to Rd 6 or 7 in your fantasy draft.
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