What a year it was! From untimely heroes, to the 3rd-String QB debacle in the NFL playoffs - there were a lot of crazy events this year. From a Fantasy perspective, we had a few standouts that may have carried you to the promised-land! So let's take a look at our top-performing AJFFL Regular Season players this year - and what my 2023 Way-Too-Early projections are for each one!
Quarterbacks
#1 - Jalen Hurts (MVP)
Our top-notch talent this year was none other than Jalen Hurts - who surprised many and took the high-flying Eagles to the Super Bowl. Hurts threw for 3701 yds and ran for 760 more - leaving him with a 22:6 (PaTD/INT) ratio and 13 Rushing TD’s on the season. It locked him in at a 27.97 Value. Despite having eight turnovers on the season, Hurts was clearly this year’s MVP - but it helped to have a deep threat like AJ Brown who was added via trade prior to the season. With the chemistry they built together this year, I’d expect Hurts and Brown to be staples in that offense for a long time.
#2 - Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes rattled the cage of every Fantasy Football manager this year yet again. He finished #2 in the MVP race - right on the heels of Hurts - notching a 41:12 ratio and 4 Rushing TD’s at a 26.82 Value during the regular season. He was crowned the 2022 Passing King - flying for 5250 yds and another 358 on the ground. It guided the Chiefs to their 3rd Super Bowl Appearance in 5 years, and their 2nd title. With the additions of Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney this year, the Chiefs high-flying passing offense will continue to be a threat to years to come.
#3 - Josh Allen
The Buffalo Bills are trying to find a way past the AFC Championship game, but Josh Allen is still one of the best in the biz. Allen topped off his 2023 season with a 3rd place finish for the league MVP - after being ranked #1 as the positional favorite at the beginning of the year. He posted 4283 PaYds, another 762 RuYds, and went 35:14. Seven more rushing touchdowns helped his cause - but the 5 fumbles hurt his seasonal value. It dropped Allen to a 26.48 Value - which is still one of the best in the league (part of an exclusive group of 5QB’s who are at 21+ Value). Allen’s future is bright if he plans on slinging it - especially with the WR core the Bills have put together.
#4 - Joe Burrow
The Cincinnati Bengals went from one of the worst teams in 2019 to the Super Bowl in 2021. It had a lot to do with 2020 1st Overall Pick Joe Burrow. His rookie campaign was cut short due to injury - but the Bengals doubled down with another southern Tiger, drafting Ja’Marr Chase. That opened the door to an explosive offense - and Burrow has looked great ever since. Finishing 4th in the MVP Race, Burrow threw for 4475Yds for a 35:12 ratio, while scampering for 257Yds and 5 more rushing TD’s. His 3 lost fumbles is slightly below average amongst NFL QB’s - meaning Burrow will continue to add to his value as long as his offensive line can keep him upright. He still posted a 23.97 Value this year, so the biggest concern for Cincy is the future of WR Tee Higgins. If Higgins does get moved, it could have a serious impact Burrow’s long-term value.
#5 - Justin Fields
Justin Fields was a surprise to everyone - finishing 7th in the MVP race behind a RB and a WR. But the biggest surprise was HOW he got there… Fields showed us all that he’s got the wheels by running his way to relevance, but he struggled to throw the ball. That could be because the Bears WR core might be one of the weakest in the league. Fields tallied only 2242yds in the air, but he gained 1143 on the ground with a 17:11 ratio and 2 fumbles. His 8 Rushing TD’s helped give him extra value over most QB’s since the Bears didn’t have much of a passing attack (Darnell Mooney missed part of the season due to injury, and Chase Claypool jumped into the mix mid-season and was trying to play catch-up). Even with Montgomery and Herbert in the backfield - Chicago NEEDS to address their O-Line. Despite landing a 21.69 Value, Fields was more or less asked to ‘make something’ of broken plays on a regular basis. If the Bears’ producing players can’t take that next step (or stay healthy) this season - expect Justin Fields to want a new home, or a massive contract.
Running Backs
#1 - Josh Jacobs
A lot of fans expected Las Vegas to be a contender this year - but it wasn’t because there was hype around Josh Jacobs. Derek Carr rejoined forces with Davante Adams, who had a great year, but Jacobs overshadowed both of them by earning the 2022 RB Title this season. Jacobs powered his way to a career year, logging 1653 RuYds for 12 TD’s and only 1 lost fumble for a 19.63 Value this year. No Running Back in the NFL outpaced his value in the regular season… and he’s a UFA this summer (Vegas didn’t pick up the $8.3m 5th-Year Option on his contract). Jacobs may be working his way up from a mid-round pick to a top-tier pick, depending on his landing spot.
#2 - Austin Ekeler
Austin Ekeler was THE guy for the Chargers this year. Justin Herbert wasn’t himself all year, and you could say it was because his top two targets were in and out of the lineup. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed a combined 13 games - and TE Gerald Everett couldn’t keep up with his heavy usage. Josh Palmer made an appearance (and a name for himself) during his stint with the starters, so expect to see his involvement go up. Ekeler will continue to carry the heavy workload for this team though. He finished just shy of 1000 rushing yards with 13 TD’s, but he caught 107-of-127 targets for 722 RecYds and 5 RecTD’s for an impressive 18.59 Value. Coming into a contract year - Ekeler’s value won’t go down this upcoming season - but it could go UP depending on how they address their WR room.
#3 Derrick Henry
The Tennessee Titans haven’t used much of a passing game in the last few years - which you could argue was the main reason they shipped out AJ Brown before last season. You could also point the finger to their QB… as Ryan Tannehill isn’t the signal caller everyone thought he was during his first playoff run with Tennessee a few years back. But making your gameplan is VERY easy when you have Derrick Henry in the backfield. Henry logged 15 games in 2022, gaining 1538 RuYds and 13 RuTD’s while only losing 3 fumbles. He was targeted 41 times and hauled in 33 catches for about 400 RecYds, closing out the year with an 18.53 VpGP. Great numbers - but not the best he’s had. Henry is coming into a contract-year himself, so his usage in 2023 most likely will continue at the current pace.
#4 Christian McCaffrey
New place, same face… or is it? The Christian McCaffrey blockbuster deal near the deadline last year put the 49ers on the map as the most talented Skill-Position team out there. Their starting WR’s, TE, and RB all rank in the top 25… and Jimmy G was their best performing QB last season at 15.35 Value (better than 11 Starting QB’s). Trey Lance doesn’t have big shoes to fill - but he will have to go up against Brock Purdy for the starting role. I’d say it’s doubtful that Garoppolo sticks around in the Bay - but he may be in the division still (see LV Raiders). That being said… McCaffrey will continue to be a staple for the 9ers. After being traded, McCaffrey compiled an additional 196.96 fantasy points, totalling 1139 RuYds for 8 RuTds in 2022. He held on to 85-of-108 targets for another 741 RecYds and 5 RecTds for a 18.53 Value - meaning he’s still at the top of his game, and he’s joining an explosive offense. Despite the second-half boom on his numbers, remember the core around him… his usage might not be the record pace that you’ve seen from him in years past, but he will still be a top-tier target.
#5 - Saquon Barkley
Can you call it a comeback? Some would say yes, but others would point to the season his QB had. I stand with the RB on this one - Saquon Barkley had himself quite the year. Despite the gap between him and McCaffrey as RB4, Barkley logged 15+pts in 10 or more games. Only three RB’s accomplished that feat (see Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler). Barkley ran for 1312 Yds and 10 TD’s, while catching 57-of-76 for another 338 RecYds. His 16.26 Value was a little shy of the others in the group - but he will continue to be a force next season. It just depends on if it’s with the Giants or elsewhere… Barkley is scheduled to be a UFA this spring. Which is concerning, as the Giants current top-2 WR’s are Darius Slayton and Richie James. It would be wise for the Giants to resign their star RB.
Wide Receivers
#1 - Justin Jefferson
He’s got the hottest set of hands on the market - and he’s making a name for himself. It helps to have a strong running game to compliment. Justin Jefferson took home this year’s WR title, posting 310pts+ this season. Kirk Cousins landed in the top-8 for QB’s - and JJettas is the main reason why. His line looks a bit like this… 128 Receptions on 184 Targets for 1809yds and 8TDs - a 20.25 Value. Playing in 16 games this season, Jefferson finished with less than 10pts only three times this season. Adam Thielen - the next top target on the Vikings - only eclipsed 10pts six times this season…. So yeah, JJettas stock is rising. Get him while you can.
#2 Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill found a new home with the Fins - he also found himself at the top of his game (yet again). Cheetah put together a spectacular season - coming in as the 2nd best WR in the league behind Jefferson. Hill was slotted alongside Jaylen Waddle - and those two tore it up with Tua under center. Hill’s production didn’t slow down despite who was taking snaps - as he fell below the 10pt mark only twice this season. An impressive line of 119-of-170 for 1710Yds and 7TD’s for a 19.32 Value is quite the standard in your first year with a new team. Despite the personal accolades - Tyreek has the ability to make your (fantasy) offense dangerous at any point of the season. His primary role will continue as the downfield threat, so go big on him next draft.
#3 - Davante Adams
Reuniting with his college quarterback, Davante Adams was hoping for a big year. He did just that - despite Carr leaving the team late in the season. Adams was able to tally an 18.06 Value last year as a top-tier WR - his line was quite impressive (100-of-180, 1516Yds and 14TD’s). He didn’t get much help from his supporting cast member (Mack Hollins) - who struggled to stay consistent. Josh Jacobs really helped open the field for the passing game - and Adams always seemed to be the primary target. While they are switching up who’s taking the snaps, it’s safe to assume Davante will be atop the draft board next year.
#4 - Stefon Diggs
The Buffalo Bills are a WAGON of a team… until you get to the Fantasy Postseason. That’s when Stefon Diggs dropped the ball - scoring only 17pts from week 14 to 16… it ended up bringing his best season to date down to a 17.81 Value. With the high-powered throwing offense the Bills have created, I’d put a lot of stock into a fast WR like Diggs (or Davis). An impressive line of 108-of-154 for 1429Yds and 11TD’s, Stefon is signed through the 2027 season, but a buyout clause is in place after the 2025 season. We’ll see if the Bills continue to push with the core they have, or if they look to reload before Allen wears down. Either way - Diggs is a must-have on your fantasy team.
#5 - AJ Brown
If you wanted a standout WR that hadn’t broken through his ceiling yet - then you probably drafted AJ Brown this past season. If you’re lucky, you got him later than the 3rd Round. The #1 from Tennessee was shipped up to Philly before the season began - and it created a recipe for success for AJ and Jalen Hurts. Brown had a career year - posting 221pts, on 88-of-145 targets for 1496 RecYds and 11 TD’s for a 15.29 Value - while finishing only four games under 10pts. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert helped draw off some heavy coverage as they deserve plenty of attention themselves - which tells me Brown is in his happy place. He’s a deep threat with speed, and if the defense gives him daylight… well, he’s going to turn it into 6pts. Just like he did last year.
Tight Ends
#1 - Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is a no-brainer. He’s been at the top of the charts for the last few years, and he will be at the top for the next few if him and Mahomes stay together. His only competition the last few years was Gronk - and he’s not in the league anymore. No shade against the next guys on this list - Kelce just happens to be “That Guy” - and there’s nothing you can do about it. His line reads 110-of-152 for 1338 Yds and 12 TD’s for a 15.69 Value. Let him get old and retire, and we can talk about the new No.1 TE after that.
#2 - T.J. Hockenson
Another Minnesota Viking on the list - but this one is a recent acquisition. TJ Hockenson flipped the script on the NFC North after the Lions shipped him out to a division rival - one that seems to be paying dividends for both parties. Detroit landed more draft capital, and TJ got to winning games (against everyone EXCEPT Detroit… LOL). He put together a remarkable second half while learning the new offense on the fly - even setting a new (fantasy) Post-Season record for most points scored by a TE in one game. He finished the year 86-of-129 for 914 Yds and six TD’s and a Value of 9.68. With that big payday kicking in this upcoming season - courtesy of the Lions picking up the 2023 Contract-Option before sending him to Minnesota - I’d expect Hock to be back at the top of the leaderboards in the TE category… but don't’ be surprised to see some regression with the new offense.
#3 - Mark Andrews
Lamar Jackson had already lost one of his favorite targets coming into this season in Hollywood Brown - so you’d expect another WR to take his place. But the Ravens WR room couldn’t get away from the injury bug, and Mark Andrews is a reliable set of hands that Jackson found often. Andrews saw his output decrease - but that could have been due to the struggles and injuries Baltimore faced in-season. Still - he was able to put together a well-rounded season after only missing one game himself. Andrews compiled 73-of-113 for 847 Yds and 5 TD’s for 10.36 Value - still one of the best in the league.. Keep him in the top-ranks of your future picks. It will serve you well.
#4 - George Kittle
The San Francisco 49ers have arguably the strongest team in the league on paper when it comes to offensive talent. George Kittle helps round out that group. He didn’t get to play the entire season, but he made a huge impact when he suited up. His line reads 60-of-86 for 765 Yds and 11 TD’s for 10.37 Value - second best among TE’s. What SF lack’s is a proven signal-caller. Kittle still has game-breaking ability, but if he can’t get the ball in his hands…a few names may be climbing above him come the 2024 preview - but it’s not from any fault of his own.
#5 - Evan Engram
When was the last time the Jacksonville Jaguars had a noteworthy Tight End? Evan Engram has updated that to RIGHT NOW. The 4th year TE signed a 1-year deal to play with Trevor Lawrence and it led to a career year for Engram (and a playoff appearance). Latest news from the Jags’ camp says he’s expected to stick around at least one more season - even if they have to franchise tag him. The tag might not motivate him - but a division title and a chance at a ring definitely could. Engram didn’t have nearly the same pace as other TE’s on this list - but his line of 73-of-98 for 766 Yds and 4 TD’s and 8.15 Value earned him 114pts this year - saying he’s worth investing in if he stays - especially for a late round pick that he could fall to.
Defense/Special Teams
#1 - New England Patriots
Defense’s are hard to predict. I’m going to start each note for this category the exact same because it’s true - there are 11 people impacting each play for this group so it can’t be based on individual performance. That being said… the Patriots have been one of the best for a while. Disciplined, fast - but this year they were scoring. Despite allowing 347 Points and 5400+ yards, they were able to get the ball away from their opponents quite often. 30 turnovers (19INT, 11FR), 54 Sacks and 8 Defensive TD’s gave them the nod as the best Defense on the year - posting a 12.14 Value. But it’s defense - this could be the coldest take you can find come October.
#2 - Dallas Cowboys
Defense’s are hard to predict. But the Cowboys were the best last year - and Micah Parsons helped guide them to a top-2 finish again this year. They gave up more yards than the #1 team (5600+ yds), but only 342pts. The Cowboys also took home the turnover crown - with 16INT’s and 17 FR’s and 54 Sacks. Only 3 Defensive TD’s, so comparing it to their #1 counterpart - the Cowboys have a better chance at sustaining their success next season.
#3 San Francisco 49ers
Defense’s are hard to predict. The 49ers had another stellar season and their offense is starting to help them out even more by keeping them off the field for longer. They ARE getting stronger… THis year, their line reads 277PA, 5110 Total Yards Allowed - but they had 30 turnovers (20INT, 10FR) 44 sacks and 3 Defensive Touchdowns. They may not be scoring you tons of points - but they’re limiting their opponents. Worth investing in - if you’re willing to give up a mid-round pick and a potential RB2 for a solid D/ST,
#4 - Philadelphia Eagles
Defense’s are hard to predict, but the Eagles were showing off all season long. 27 Turnovers and 70 sacks are more than you need to advertise them as a dangerous unit. Their 2 Defensive TD’s always bolster their points, but they did allow a LOT of points and yards (344PA, 5125TYA). Their 10.21 Value shows that they still can put your fantasy team over the top - but they may not be as reliable as the other three mentioned.
#5 - Baltimore Ravens
Defense’s are hard to predict. The Baltimore Ravens have been in and out of this scene many times since the retirement of Ray Lewis. The team is getting more disciplined - and Mike MacDonald is now leading the charge as the D/C. Already, the team has dropped their Points Allowed and Total Yards Allowed by nearly 10% compared to their 2021 statistics. They could be trending in the right direction - but if their offense can’t give them a break next year, they may be dropping from the top-5.
Kickers
#1 - Daniel Carlson
A surprise candidate makes an appearance here! Then again… Daniel Carlson was the top-scoring Kicker in 2021 also. The Las Vegas Raiders still feels weird to type out - and even more unjarring to hear aloud - but they’ve been quite the team to make some fantasy noise… offensively speaking. Josh Jacobs had a helluva year, and Davante Adams is also lights-out. Derek Carr is unfortunately (and surprisingly) finding a new home this offseason - which leads me to think Carlson will get the green light to kick the ball more often if they can move it to midfield. Carlson has quite the track record over the last few seasons. He ripped 34/37 through the uprights, and knocked home 35/36 PAT’s. He’s consistent - and he can play the long game (57yds in 2022). A good kicker can give you a big boost to your team - and sometimes steal you some matchups.
#2 - Tyler Bass
Buffalo Bills’ found their way to the AFC Championship game again this year - but couldn’t get past the Anti-Allen Barrier and find the Super Bowl. It wasn’t because of Tyler Bass though. When asked - he delivers. Bass doesn’t get nearly as much use as other kickers because of how strong their offense is - but he did score 27 times on 31 FG attempts last year (56yds longest) - and he really gets a lot of opportunities for PAT’s (48/50). With 1 year left on his contract, I’d look to add Bass to our fantasy squad.
#3 - Nick Folk
The Patriots brought on Nick Folk in the fall of 2019 and he’s been on and off the active roster ever since. Injuries were a problem for him, but he has since recovered and re-earned his starting spot. Coming into his final season of another 2-year deal, the 39-year old can still be bought out… but it wouldn’t make much sense unless they were getting an “automatic” kicker. Folk went 32/37 last year (Long: 54yds), while knocking 32/35 PAT’s through. Not bad for a guy who’s been in the league since 2007. If he doesn’t get bought out - he’s still a top-tier place kicker.
#4 - Justin Tucker
The man who holds the record for the longest FG in NFL history signed a 4-year extension last October - so it’s safe to say Justin Tucker won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. The 34-year old is still hitting the long-ball with ease, but he did miss a few crucial kicks throughout the season (37/43, Longest - 58yds). The PAT’s were consistent at least (31/32) - but that’s to be expected from Tucker. Let’s hope Lamar stays in Baltimore for Justin’s sake - otherwise he will be leaning on Tyler Huntley (9.07 Value).
#5 - Brett Maher
The Dallas Cowboys had another season without their starting QB for all 17 regular season games, but it didn’t stop them from putting together quite the season. Cooper Rush stepped in for Dak Prescott again and played quite well - and Brett Maher kept them in games with the long ball. Maher notched 29/32 FG’s (Longest - 60yds) while showing how dialed in he was on his PAT’s (50/53). The 33 year-old will be a UFA this summer - we’ll see where he ends up. Any kicker in Dallas will get a boost in the fantasy rankings though… not just because of the dome, but because the Cowboys Offense can move the ball down the field effectively.
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