If you are referencing my pre-season predictions, this is going to be an embarrassing post for me. I've never called myself an analyst - let alone projected how NFL Players would perform (or their teams). So let's have some fun with this and make fun of how far off I was! We'll start with the NFL Teams themselves, then head to the current Top 5 Position Players before wrapping up with the Rookie Reflections. Let's dig in!
AFC Outlook: (Predicted Record through Week 8, Actual Record through Week 8)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (7-1, 6-2)
I had the Ravens finishing the season as the AFC North Division Winner (12-5), so things are trending in the right direction here. They have the talent on the defense to get it done - and their offense is coming together still. Zay Flowers has turned into Hollywood Brown 2.0 - Lamar Jackson's favorite target this season. The rest of their WR group has been sub-par to say the least(OBJ, Rashod Bateman, and Devin Duvernay). What really hurt was losing JK Dobbins for the season again (the poor guy just can't stay healthy). The Ravens have put together several dominant victories, but a few lapses at the beginning of the season have left them a little too close for comfort in the Division Standings; but I don't think it's a concern for John Harbaugh and company. Don't be surprised of Lamar gets a game or two off later in the season - they're going to need him for a deep post-season run this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3, 4-3)
Pittsburgh has once again surprised me with their play - despite correctly predicting their record through eight weeks. That being said... I don't expect them to keep it up. Pickett has been ok at best, and their running game is not good. Najee Harris actually ranks behind Jaylen Warren in Fantasy Production (not carries), and that's a direct reflection of Najee. George Pickens has made an impact in his development, as he's currently WR20 in the AJFFL - much higher than his position after last year (WR41). It's no thanks to Matt Canada, if you read any Pittsburgh Steelers writers. He is causing controversy in the Steel City with his playcalling - I wouldn't be surprised Matt Canada is out of a job by season's end.
Cleveland Browns (2-5, 4-3)
They've won twice as many games as I thought they would have by now, so this is good news for Cleveland Fans. What's really surprising is DeShaun Watson looked like an NFL QB for the first few games of the season again - but he's quickly disappeared from the limelight due to injuries. He's only played 10 of a possible 24 games for the Browns since signing a multi-year deal with the organization... and I've read some Browns fans calling it "money well spent"... I'm not sure if they're delusional or on hard drugs, because I couldn't disagree more. If the Browns want a chance at a division title, they'll need Watson back for two reasons. Number 1, you aren't moving that contract. No one wants him for that price. Number two, because Dorian Thompson-Robinson and PJ Walker are not getting it done - so Watson is your best option.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-1, 4-3)
Joe Burrow and company had a BAD start to their season. Burrow was nursing a calf injury, and the offense couldn't get on the same page. Joe Mixon finally broke through last week for an above-average performance, but the rest of the Bengals (outside of Ja'Marr Chase) are still getting up to speed. This division is wide open still - the Bengals have the talent and skills to get back in the race. Expect them to make a push for a WC spot at the very least.
AFC East
Miami Dolphins (7-1, 6-2)
Talk about a hot-team. Tua Tagovailoa is on his revenge tour after suffering two gruesome head injuries last season - and he's not slowing down for anyone. Currently QB3 in the league, Tua has provided the spark to this offense they've been waiting to ignite for a few years. They have the fastest WR in the league (Tyreek Hill), the fastest RB in the league (De'Von Achane), and two fantastic supporting skilled-position players to round out their speed-to-talent ratio. This team is fast, they're smart - and they're on their way to a 1st Round Bye. Keep and eye on Miami - they might be pre-booking that trip to Vegas in February.
Buffalo Bills (6-2, 5-3)
The Buffalo Bills started their year with a concerning trend of not being able to get the offense rolling- and that's why they have three losses so far. They've "bounced back", thanks to players like Gabe Davis outperforming expectations. James Cook is also playing the best football of his career, while Stefon Diggs is listed as a Top 5 WR in the league. It makes things easier when Josh Allen is helping a lot with his arm, as he's currently QB1 in the AJFFL. With the defense stepping up the way they have in recent weeks, the Bills will be a threat to a few AFC teams in the postseason.
New York Jets (4-3, 4-3)
Zach Wilson has had to step in to fill in for Aaron Rodgers who played only a handful of plays with the Jets before tearing his Achilles. To put it lightly, things haven't gone according to plan since the get-go for Robert Saleh - but they're making the most of it. Wilson has played impressively comparing to his performances last season - which is good for WRs like Garrett Wilson. They're still in the hunt, only two games out of First in the division. This Jets team could surprise us yet - but they will need Wilson and company to step up even more down the stretch if they want to sniff a divisional seed.
New England Patriots (1-7, 2-6)
I wasn't too far off about the turmoil in New England. Mac Jones hasn't looked comfortable, the rest of the offense has been horrendous, and the defense has been less-than stellar to start the year. The D/ST has picked it up in recent weeks, but it hasn't been enough to move the needle for most writers in the Greater-Boston Area. It's not good for offense when your passing options keep going down with injuries - and it really doesn't help when your running game can't find a rhythm. The Patriots will need a LOT to get things turned around - it may not be a one-offseason thing anymore. It's getting out of control - and you could say it started when Matt Patricia returned...
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3, 6-2)
The Chiefs have dropped only two games to this point - their season opener against the Lions and their most recent game against the Broncos. If you asked 100 fans who the Chiefs would lose their first two games to this season, I guarantee you that there wouldn't be a single fan who would've picked both Detroit AND Denver. The Chiefs are once again making the most of their exhausted roster. Isiah Pacheco has found a home as RB1 with KC, while Rashee Rice is making strides to be one of the more prominent WR's in the group. Travis Kelce is still doing Travis Kelce things, and still atop of the TE Rankings. The Chiefs are pushing their limits once again, and setting the standard in the AFC West. Don't be surprised if they find a way to hang another Division Championship banner at the end of the season - if not more.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-2, 3-4)
Justin Herbert is doing what he can with this offense - he's QB6 in the AJFFL right now, but the Chargers cannot get points on the board. He will pass the 2000yds mark this week, and he has 13 Passing TD's and 3 Rushing TDs. Losing Mike Williams doesn't help with that, and not having Austin Ekeler at 100% to start the season was a clear indication that this team was going to struggle for the first few weeks. I had them winning the division this year at 12-5, but at this point I don't think they'll hit that mark. Their final nine games, I have them going 8-1... the trends of the season don't like this outlook, but they will still be in the conversation for a Wild Card spot.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-5, 3-5)
The Raiders fired Josh McDaniels and GM David Ziegler mid-season. It's going to cost them a lot of money to move on, but they never came close to the team McDaniels promised they would be - as a matter of fact, they regressed substantially in the years that McDaniels was in charge. I said this was a Darkhorse team with a loaded offense that could sneak into the playoffs - LOL... Now Garoppolo is on the bench, and Aiden O'Connell is QB1 in Vegas. Good thing I don't do this full-time!
Denver Broncos (2-6, 3-5)
The Broncos aren't far off from what I projected - the Russell Wilson hype is just noise. Sean Payton doesn't seem to be connecting with his players either, so it's just a nasty situation for everyone. Rumors of Jerry Jeudy wanting out swarmed the NFL Airways ahead of the deadline, and it's clear the WR is disgruntled. This team needs to show a heartbeat, or you can expect some pieces getting moved in the offseason.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2, 6-2)
Jacksonville is slated to be the #3 AFC Seed in my rankings, but their shaky start to the season made some analysts nervous. Not me! I hung tough with my projection, and they've been on a tear ever since. The big surprise is their division is not the Jags at the top, but the Texans/Titans/Colts all at 3-wins! Etienne is having a coming-out party, Evan Engram is a reliable (not game-breaking) TE, and the WR room is doing their due-diligence. The Jaguars Defense has been the story of this team, as Doug Pederson's offense was expected to boom this year. They Jag's have a stranglehold on the AFC South, and will most likely lock-up the division by early-December.
Houston Texans (0-7, 3-4)
This was my biggest miss so far - but it wasn't just me! Houston's season has shocked every NFL analyst. Most projections had them winning 2 or 3 games all year. They've stolen three games already - and Stroud looks like a good rookie with lots to build on. He's got a long way to go to become a good NFL QB, but he's on the right path. There's a long way to go before this team is regularly competitive, but they're making the right decisions - both on the field, and in the Front Office.
Tennessee Titans (4-3, 3-4)
My Preseason Ranks had the Titans at #9 in the AFC, missing the playoffs by a few wins. Trends of the season so far agree with me, although Will Levis provided an impressive offensive spark for the Titans in Week 8. If Levis continues to impress, this Titans team could turn around their season and be on the doorstep for a Wild Card spot. Long way to go still, but they held on to Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins at the deadline - don't be surprised if they're able to do it.
Indianapolis Colts (2-6, 3-5)
Anthony Richardson was expected to be a Rookie of the Year contender - but he took himself out of the conversation because he protects the football more than he protects himself. He is an aggressive football player, and an even more aggressive runner. Unfortunately, it knocked him out of the running and into season-ending shoulder surgery after Week 4. The Colts have something special in Richardson - they just have to make sure he knows how important he is to that team moving forward. Their 2023 record could be pretty close to my projection come January.
NFC Outlook:
NFC North
Detroit Lions (6-2, 6-2)
Can't say it's a surprise, but man does it feel good to look at the Lions atop of the NFC North. Jared Goff has been on a heater, and David Montgomery singlehandedly stole a few games for the boys in Honolulu Blue. Don't forget the emergence of Sam LaPorta - this team is trending up. The Lions defense needs to be addressed - specifically locking down the passing game. Aiden Hutchinson doesn't have much help on the other side of the D Line, so there's more than one thing that needs to get dialed in - but that's normal. They've got a firm grasp on the North right now, and have five division games left on the schedule. The only game I'm concerned about them dropping (in-division) would be the road game against the Vikings in Week 16 - but if the trends stay true, this team will be hosting a playoff game at Ford Field in January.
Minnesota Vikings (5-3, 4-4)
The Vikings were looking to go all-in this year, moving on from Dalvin Cook and in the final year of Kirk Cousins' big contract. Unfortunately, they've had some serious setbacks... Mattison has struggled, Jefferson was placed on IR, and then Cousins tore his Achilles, effectively ending his season. Jefferson will be ready to return in two weeks, but this offense will need to regroup because now they have a new face under center (for the season) in Josh Dobbs. Jaren Hall is slated to be QB1 until Dobbs gets familiar with the offense, but this team has run into a big problem as we turn the page past the Trade Deadline. They're on the outside looking in to the postseason race, but they have the talent to steal the WC2 slot in the NFC if things fall in their favor.
Green Bay Packers (2-5, 2-5)
The Packers are dead. Aaron Rodgers left this team in the dust, and there's no saving Matt LaFleur's job ahead of the end of this season. Jordan Love has shown flashes of competence, but nothing more. Christian Watson is still the WR1, although he's not getting the touches you'd expect a WR1 to be seeing. Even Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are underperforming. It's all leading to the fall of the Packers - into the NFC North Basement.... right above the other team rotting from the inside-out. Fans and some analysts are calling for Sean Clifford to lineup under center, while others are blaming the Wide Receivers for a "lack of effort". Whatever it is, the Packers are not in a good spot.
Chicago Bears (3-5, 2-6)
Justin Fields is on an island by himself in Chicago. This team is abysmal, and there's no improving it this year. DJ Moore has been one of the only consistent positives on this team, but that's not saying much compared to the rest of the roster. They've got a lot of work to do in order to "find themselves" this offseason. The Bears Front Office are still doubling down on Fields being their guy - so they need to seriously invest in protecting him next year if they want him around long-term. They have two first round picks and two second round picks this year, courtesy of Carolina... That should be a big boost to their re-tooling.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2, 7-1)
The Eagles were projected to finish as a Top-2 team in the NFC by just about every analyst I researched through - and right now, they're the #1 team in the league at 7-1. The off-season acquisition of D'Andre Swift while shipping out Miles Sanders is starting to look like the change they needed for their offense - not that they needed more firepower on the offense, but because it gave them some much needed cap-relief. I expected them to lose their Week 7 Matchup against Miami, but with the way they're playing right now - I don't know if anyone can stop them. I said the Eagles would be 7-2 at their Bye, and with a 7-1 projected run after their break. Looking at the schedule now, that 7-1 post-bye run is looking bleak... Philly has a gauntlet of games coming up. Vs Dallas Week 9, Bye Week 10, @ Kansas City Week 11, Vs Buffalo Week 12, Vs San Francisco Week 13, @ Dallas Week 14, and @ Seattle Week 15. Their final three games should coast them into the postseason (Vs NYG, Vs Arizona, @ NYG) - but this team has a big challenge ahead of them to finish as the #1 Seed.
Dallas Cowboys (6-1, 5-2)
Dallas has the hottest defense in the league again this year, and that shouldn't be a surprise. Projected to be 6-1 after eight weeks, it's not surprising they're second in the NFC East. They have two big challenges against the Eagles coming up - two games that will help define if this team is the REAL DEAL. Dallas has allowed the fewest points in the league (121PA), so they're going to need their defense to step up in a big way when they take on Philly - who has the second-most points-scored in the league (behind Miami and their 70pt thrashing of the Broncos). I had the Cowboys finishing at 12-5, but if they catch Philly on a down-week, they could make a run at the division title. Needless to say, they're right on track for a Wild Card finish at-worst.
Washington Commanders (2-6, 3-5)
Washington sold some big pieces at the deadline, effectively announcing the end of their season. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are gone - and that's all she wrote. The only focus for the Commanders moving forward this year is to get their offense on the same page. Sam Howell has shown he's a capable NFL QB (on occasion), but he's a rookie who's getting better. Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin will be hot-commodities the rest of the year while Brian Robinson Jr continues to impress in his Rookie+1 year (currently RB12). This team has some growing pains to get through, but the offense seems to be in good position to take a big step forward as they wrap up their 2023 season. I had the Commanders winning 3 games all year - so they're ahead of schedule, but a long way to go still.
New York Giants (2-6, 2-6)
Do I need to elaborate on this? The Giants and Brian Daboll are in hot water. Danny Dimes is not performing up to expectation, their QB2 is hurt, and they have no passing game once again. Their defense is horrid, and they don't seem to be making progress anywhere other than slowing football games down. Truly, I thought this team would be better given that Daniel Jones took some big strides last year, but it appears it was all smoke-and-mirrors. The Giants need to win four of their next 9 games to finish on-par with my projections - not something I see happening for these guys. Unless you have Saquon or Darren Waller, I'd avoid any Giants for the remainder of the year.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 5-2)
Geno Smith has found himself atop of the NFC West - something I bet nobody had at the mid-point of our season. Seattle has been a solid team since getting rid of Russell Wilson - and Smith has been good for them the last two years. Currently QB23, the big story is their defense. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest points in their division, ranking 8th in the NFL in that category. It helps substantially, because they are no longer a big-play team - they control the ball and the game. Smith is relatively responsible with the football, with 7 turnovers on the year (6INT, 1 FL). I do expect them to have a fall from grace though... my projected record for them after their Week 5 Bye is 6-7, which would leave them with a 9-8 record. That's good enough to stay in the Wild Card conversation in late-January - it all depends on how some of our other "Wild Card Hopefuls" pan out over the next two months.
San Francisco 49ers (8-0, 5-3)
I didn't think San Francisco would lose any games ahead of Week 9. I had them losing only two games all year - and here they are, with three losses after 8 Weeks. Brock Purdy is exactly what I thought he would be - J.A.G. (thanks Steve Smith), or "Just a Guy". He's nothing special. I made a comment to a friend ahead of the season that if you swapped Purdy and Mac Jones, you'd see the same records and outputs as if they stayed on their current teams. Meaning, Purdy isn't anything special - just like Mac Jones has proven to be J.A.G. What MAKES Purdy special is the talent around him. George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, I mean come on... what else do you need? And now they're adding Chase Young to the other side of their DL to compliment Nick Bosa - on paper, this team should destroy everyone. San Francisco has two big games in Week 13 @ Philadelphia and Week 16 Vs Baltimore - and four more Division Games (Week 12 @ Seattle, Week 14 vs Seattle, Week 15 @ Arizona, and Week 18 vs LAR). They should should win at least five of these games without much struggle, but the big games (@ Seattle, @ Philly, Vs Baltimore) could cause some ripples in the NFC West standings if they're not too careful.
Los Angeles Rams (2-6, 3-5)
I can say the Rams have overachieved so far this year, given they're running with an offense that can't stay healthy. Cooper Kupp missed the first four games of the season, and then their Rookie RB was sidelined for potentially five weeks after Kupp returned to the lineup. They've found a few stars in the rough (Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams), but is it sustainable? I projected the Rams to finish 7-10. Nacua has impressed with his performances so far this year, but we're only halfway through the season. He has some real RotY potential - if he stays healthy. Stafford on the other hand... he's playing like the Matt Stafford from Detroit. He will steal a few games, but this team will continue to struggle down the stretch. Wildcard hopeful? Maybe... it's more of a longshot than it is "hopeful" - but who knows, Stafford has pulled some magic out of his *hat* on more than one occasion.
Arizona Cardinals (1-7, 1-7)
Arizona sold Josh Dobbs to Minnesota because Kyler Murray is just about ready to return. Clayton Tune will fill in under-center this week, and Murray is expected to make his season-debut Week 10. That's good news for Hollywood Brown owners! The Cardinals have been riddled with injuries all year, which is tough because a lot of their starters are top-tier players according to some analysts. I had Arizona going 1-5 through their first six games, and then a jump to 4-9 at their Bye in Week 14. With Murray returning, there's a chance they make it... but I don't think it's sustainable. They will be lucky to finish at 5-12.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (4-4, 4-4)
It took me until Week 8 to realize I never added the Falcons to my "2023 NFC Preview" article from the pre-season. Oops! Atlanta is currently leading the NFC South, but it's not by much. Desmond Ridder has officially been benched for Taylor Heinicke, and I'm not surprised on why. Ridder has 12 turnovers on the year, and Heinicke has played two quarters and scored four out of six times. With the offensive tools on this team, I fully expect them to be competitive - but not a playoff team (this year). Bijan Robinson is coming to form, while Kyle Pitts stock is rising quickly thanks to the QB change. Drake London might actually become a relevant fantasy receiver this year if Heinicke stays put - but their defense is anemic and cannot stop anyone. They currently rank 28th in the AJFFL for Points, and are 17th in Points Allowed. How are they at the top of the division? Well, take a look at who they're going up against... this might be the second year in a row a sub-.500 team makes the playoffs as a Division Winner from the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints (5-3, 4-4)
I thought the Saints would be better - but it's clear they are struggling with the many-changes from the off-season. New QB, new-look backfield, Olave and Mike Thomas expected to mesh well - and Taysom Hill as a backup option to find offense. With Hill under center, this team has a triple-option on every play. With Derek Carr, it's going literally anywhere. Carr has the 6th-most passing attempts on the season as of this writing, and is 24th in Completion Percentage (looking at Starting QBs with more than 2 starts), and 21st in QB Rating (under the same guise). That's not good. This team needs to start clicking if they want to take the division - which is wide open for literally any of these teams. Well... not so much Carolina, but they're technically in the race still.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7, 3-4)
Baker Mayfield may have found a new home for a few seasons if things keep going well for him. He's 15th in Passing Attempts and has a 64.2% completion percentage - and is tied for 11th with 10 passing TDs this year. He's also only taken 11 sacks - tied with Tua for second-fewest among starting QBs. When your QB is upright, he can make plays - and Baker has made a career of extending plays. Currently QB16 in the AJFFL, I would not be surprised if Tampa makes a push for the postseason in the coming weeks. I was way off with their projections, expecting them to struggle immensely and wrap up the year with only four victories. They're already at three W's heading into Week 9 - I could also see this being the team who sneaks into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record at 8-9. Time will tell, but keep an eye on the Bucs.
Carolina Panthers (2-5, 1-6)
Carolina gave up a lot to get Bryce Young 1st Overall. They sent away their #1 WR, two 1st Rd Picks, and two Second Round Picks - and for what? A long season of "watch us get dismantled"? I don't have much to say about the Panthers. You thought they'd know what they were getting themselves into when they traded for the 1st Pick from Chicago - but they gave up all the draft capital they needed to get protection for Young in that trade too. Now, without assets or an offensive line, Young is struggling to stay upright. He's hit the turf 22 times this year, good enough for the 7th most sacks in the league this year. There's going to be a lot of growing pains for this team - especially since their draft board will look bare this upcoming May once again.
Player Outlook:
Quarterbacks (Current QB Rank / Pts / LDP)
Josh Allen | 195.5pts | 2.04 Projected to finish 2nd in the MVP Race, Josh Allen is driving the Bills to the playoffs again this year. On pace for the MVP, Allen is once again throwing the ball with a purpose. 5th in Passing Yards, 5th in Attempts, 4th in Completions, 3rd in TDs, and the big blunder - 2nd in INT's. He's always been a "big play" guy, throwing 21 passes of 20yds or greater, and five passes of 40yds or greater. If he keeps pace and stays healthy, he will be the MVP at the end of the year. Bills fans would love that - because it means their offense is clicking at the right time.
Jalen Hurts | 191.6pts | 7.05 Last year's MVP is right on the heels of our QB1. Hurts and the Eagles will continue to be dangerous - because of that damn Brotherly Shove. The Eagles are also a great football team, so definitely expect Hurts to remain in the conversation through the end of the season.
Tua Tagovailoa | 167.5pts | 12.07 Tua is lighting the world on fire once again - and this time, he's staying upright. He's been sacked 11 times this year, and only Patrick Mahomes has been sacked less (based on Starting QB's only). I picked Tua to finish as QB7, but hes' on pace for a healthy season and some personal-bests. If the Miami offense stays as hot as they started the year, Tua will have an NFL (and AJFFL) MVP trophy come springtime.
Lamar Jackson | 166.7pts | 3.04 Lamar is a playmaker - and he used to be a runner. I say that because the new offensive scheme the Ravens run is supposed to be pass-heavy - and his stats (mostly) reflect that. He's got 380 RuYds this year, and 5 RuTDs - add that into his 1700+yds in the air (9 PaTDs), and you've got an elite dual threat QB in Jackson. Still a ways off from MVP (or Pocket Passer), but he's a gamebreaker - both in the NFL, and on your fantasy team.
Patrick Mahomes | 163.7pts | 1.10 Mahomes is once again doing Mahomes things - making the Chiefs relevant despite their lack of depth on offense. Their Defense has really stepped up this year, making the offenses job s bit easier... not by much, but Mahomes is doing very well. If he controlled his INT's a bit more (8 on the season), he would be closer to the #2 spot - but there's still half-of-a-season left to play. Keep him on your radar for MVP.
Running Backs (Current RB Rank / Pts / RelVal)
Christian McCaffrey | 184.4pts | 1.02 McCaffrey is doing exactly what you'd expect of him - tearing up opposing defenses. He was one of a handful of players to eclipse the 300pt mark last season - an impressive feat for a Running Back. And, as expected, the 49ers are leaning on him heavily. Only Travis Etienne has more carries than CMC, but Christian has the Yardage Total (and TD Total) locked down. He has missed substantial time in two of the last three years due to injury - so that's going to be on the radar as we get to the homestretch. That being said - the 49ers have wayyy more options to get the ball downfield compared to Carolina - so they might not need to run him into the ground like he has in years past. I don't think he'll slip in the rankings unless there's an injury.
Travis Etienne | 152.4pts | 3.09 Etienne is having a fantastic start to his sophomore season. He's on-pace to have about 300 rushes this year, and he should become a 1000yd rusher once again this year. He's also finding more utilization out of the backfield with 27 catches for 266yds to date. I was pretty harsh on ETN coming into the year - I thought he'd be on the outskirts of a top-10 RB... not one of the leaders. If Trevor Lawrence continues to find success in Jacksonville, ETN will be right there with him as a top-tier target.
Raheem Mostert | 146.6pts | 6.07 Mostert was on 0 radars ahead of the season. Literally, not once did I see his name pop up in conversations for Top RB - especially since Miami was planning on running another RBC. Mostert, Wilson, Achane, Ahmed... who knew? His stats are heavily padded by three outstanding games this season, but don't get discouraged - he's still listed as RB1 on the Miami Depth Chart. Mostert may have found a home in Miami for now, but the emergence of Achane may give him a run for his money next year.
Zack Moss | 117.2pts | UDFA No one expected Zack Moss to be here. Not even Zack Moss. He was traded for Nyheim Hines last year, a lateral move IMO... From RB2 in Buffalo, to RB2 in Indy. Then... Jonathan Taylor sat out, and Moss was gifted a chance to prove his worth. And he has - even after JT returned to the lineup, Moss has proven he's extremely valuable to this young Colts team. He's radiating heavy "Tony Pollard" vibes to me, and I wouldn't bench him unless you have a ridiculously favorable matchup for another RB1.
D'Andre Swift | 106.6pts | 6.05 Swift went from Blue to Green this offseason - and he's really enjoying his season. He's finally found an offense that uses him the way he was utilized in college - and he's having himself a career year. He has 706 All-Purpose Yards through 8 games with Philly. In his three seasons in Detroit, Swift totaled 878 (2020), 1069 (2021), and 931 (2022) All-Purpose Yards. Due a contract in the offseason, Swift may have found a long-term home, and Eagles fans couldn't be happier with the upgrade from Miles Sanders.
Wide Receivers (Current WR Rank / Pts / RelVal)
Tyreek Hill | 195.3pts | 1.08 Tyreek Hill is posting Video Game Numbers as he torches defenses this year. He has 8 Receiving TDs, 7 catches of 40+yds, 16 catches of 20+yds, and was the first to clear 1000yds this season (1014yds after 8 Weeks). He's . 61 catches on 87 targets, and he has the most YAC yards among all WRs (382yds). As long as Tua stays healthy, Hill will be at the front of the line for MVP candidates.
AJ Brown | 159.9pts | 1.04 AJ Brown truthers can breathe a big sigh of relief - he had a slow start, but he's now the first player in NFL History to have 6 consecutive games with 125+RecYds (after his first two games of 7 catches/79yds/0TDs, and 4/29/0). Jalen Hurts clearly has found his favorite target, with 60 catches on 83 looks (well ahead of DeVonta Smith's 39 catches on 57 targets).
Stefon Diggs | 144.8pts | 1.12 The Target King continues to give defenses headaches - especially since he's fast enough to blow by most DB's in the league. Diggs and Allen are once again burning secondary's left-and-right - but not always on the deep ball... Diggs is a smart route-runner, and can get open as soon as he recognizes trouble in the pocket. He only has 748yds so far this season, but his 64 catches on 90 targets is near the best in the league (71% of targets are catches). Don't expect that to slow down as we near the playoff push.
Keenan Allen | 125.9pts | 3.05 This may come as a surprise, but Keenan Allen is on pace for a career year. 54 receptions for 643yds and 4TDs in seven games - his best line is 104/1199/6 in 16 games in 2019. Many analysts speculated this could be Allen's last year in LA, but with the injury to Mike Williams - there's a chance they cut ties with him and pick-up the option for Allen next year. He's got 74 targets through seven games, which is just under the number of targets Palmer, Ekeler, and Johnston have combined this year (83 targets among the three players). It's not a surprise Herbert is leaning so heavily on Allen, and you should absolutely start him down the stretch if you need points. He's getting the looks.
DJ Moore | 125.1pts | 4.04 A big surprise, DJ Moore is near the top of this list. He has 44 catches on 57 targets for 691yds and 5TDs... but 22 catches, 365yds and 4TDs came in three games against weak defensive opponents - the Broncos, the Commanders, and the Buccaneers. He's been held to 55yds or less in every other game he's played, totaling 22 catches for 226yds and 1 TD in the other five games. It's not consistent, but you could blame it on the fact that he doesn't have his QB1 under center right now. That being said - Moore is on pace for a career year if he can stay healthy - something the Bears desperately need.
Tight Ends (Current TE Rank / Pts / RelVal)
Travis Kelce | 113.3pts | 1.07 Travis Kelce missed the first game of the season against Detroit - but his statline still shows why he's TE1 in teh NFL. 54 catches on 68 targets for 583yds and 4 TDs is second to no one - only Mark Andrews has more TD's... No one else surpasses him in any category. He's averaging 83yds/game - another unreal stat for a TE. Kelce has this more-or-less locked up for TE1 again, but there's ope another youngster can overtake that title from him in the next few seasons...
Mark Andrews | 91.7pts | 2.10 Andrews is once again Lamar Jackson's favorite target in the Red Zone - to no one's surprise. What is surprising is who is the leading receiver on the Ravens - Zay Flowers. Regardless, Andrews has a line of 32/397/6 in 7 games (also missing one game, like Kelce), and is clearly THE workhorse for Jackson still. The trends will continue, and Andrews will finish as a Top-2 TE.
Sam LaPorta | 90.9pts | 10.07 The youngster referenced earlier, Sam LaPorta has taken the TE world by storm - and you can give Jared Goff a big shoutout for it. He's second on the Lions in Targets (43 catches on 59 targets) for 434yds and 4TDs. Unreal stats for a Rookie - and he's gaining confidence and getting better. He may not finish as TE1 this season, but he will be a top-tier TE target for years to come.
TJ Hockenson | 90.3pts | 3.06 The guy who was excited to win games after leaving Detroit has won a total of 11 games since leaving the Motor City, and has watched his team drop 7 games. Meanwhile, the Lions have won 14 and lost 4. Tough shit, huh TJ? Enough trash talk to a guy who doesn't know I exist - the Vikings may be in trouble now that Kirk Cousins is done for the year. Hockenson stock may rise because it's easier to find a TE 5yds downfield than it is to find a WR 10-20yds downfield. I expected Cam Akers to have more of an impact on this team since Mattison hasn't found his footing as RB1 - but the next two weeks will give us a good idea of where his usage will lie for the rest of the season.
George Kittle | 78.5pts | 3.10 George struggled to start the season, but now he's back at the top of the league in regards to the TE department. Kittle has a line of 32/443/3, and that's after he had 6 catches for 49yds in his first two games. Don't forget how many playmakers are in SF... that is part of the reason why he doesn't get nearly as many touches has he did in years past. Still - Kittle has the skills to be TE1, if the 49ers get him the ball. He is currently 9th in targets amongst TE's, so it's not like they're ignoring him - they just don't need to get him the ball. You take that risk when you load up your offense with talent - but it keeps defenses guessing because you have so many different ways to beat them.
Defense/Special Teams (Current D/ST Rank / Pts / RelVal)
Dallas Cowboys | 102pts | 12.02 Dallas is unreal once again. Not sure how else to elaborate on it - they're shutting down the runs, they're getting turnovers, and they've gotten to the QB on a regular basis. It's an elite D/ST, and that's all I need to say about them. Expect them to be the #1 D/ST come January.
Baltimore Ravens | 87pts | 15.04 The Ravens took a big jump in the rankings compared to last year when Mike Macdonald took over the DC role in 2022. Last year, opponents scored 315pts, averaging 18ppg. This year, it's down to 15ppg, and it's trending downward. Mostly because they're at 31 sacks through eight games... The biggest difference is they somehow found a way to increase takeaways compared to last year (14 INTs, 14 FFs in 2022, 8 INTs, 6 FFs through eight games in 2023). It always helps when your offense is on the field more than your defense.
Buffalo Bills | 87pts | 12.08 The Bills are a force on the AFC East - but they're getting more turnovers this year too. Last year, the Bills had 40 sacks and 27 takeaways. This year, they're already up to 28 sacks, on pace to come close to their 40 sack total last year. It's fun to watch a team with a dynamic defense - and Buffalo is that team IMO. Don't be surprised if they sneak past Baltimore and challenge Dallas as the Top D/ST before year's end.
Kansas City Chiefs | 82pts | UDFA In 2022, the Chiefs allowed 369pts. It didn't matter too much because they scored a lot more than they let up - but they still had one of the better Defense's in the league. 55sacks, 11 INTs and 12 FFs with 9 recoveries in 2022 gave Patrick Mahomes enough chances to extend (or regain) their leads. This year, it's been pretty much the same pace in the turnover department... only 12 takeaways through 8 games for the Chiefs, with 28 sacks as of today. They ARE doing a much better job keeping their opponents off the scoreboard though (129PA). Don't expect any ground-breaking revelations about this team heading into their Bye - they just need to rest up for their playoff push.
Jacksonville Jaguars | 82pts | 12.09 I went to some fantasy football forums ahead of the season and proposed an open-ended question to the visitors - is Jacksonville a legit D/ST? It pissed a lot of people off. I'm not sure why, I thought Jacksonville was one of the sneaky defensive units that most people didn't realize was good until it was too late. In 2022, they accumulated 35 sacks, 14 INTs, 17 FFs and 13 recoveries for 27 takeaways. How is this a "bad" unit? What's even more impressive - they have 16 sacks, 11 INTs, 9 FFs and 7 Recoveries this year already. Should I go stir the pot on those forums again with a victory lap?
Kickers (Current K Rank / Pts / RelVal)
Jake Elliot | 88.5pts | 17.07 Want to know something funny? None of the kickers on this list were on my preseason outlook. 0. That's just how some things go, I guess! Kicker success is largely based on offensive production, so it's no surprise to see Elliot at #1. Philly scores a lot, which means Elliot kicks a lot. He's 18/20 on FG's, and 22/23 on XPs. If they keep scoring, so will he.
Dustin Hopkins | 85pts | UDFA This one was kind of surprising to me - Dustin Hopkins was traded to Cleveland from LAC after losing the starting job to Cameron Dicker. Initially, I thought it would be a good fit for him - he's reliable, and Deshaun Watson was supposed to be healthy and ready to rock. He's missed three games so far this year, and the Cleveland Offense looks lost. The fact that Hopkins is still K2 is impressive - he's 18/20 on FGs, and 10/10 on XPs. Last year, he went 9/10 on FGs and 12/12 on XPs, while 2021 was much stronger - 30/34 FGs, and 40/44 XPs. Consistently consistent.
Brandon McManus | 84pts | UDFA McManus leaving Denver for Jacksonville was a great move - because McManus is getting a lot more reps. He's can kick the ball a country mile; his longest FG in the last three years was 61yds. Granted - that could have been in Denver air... but 61yds is a lot of ground to make up, and the Jags shouldn't ever need him to kick it from that far away. Last year, he went 28/36 on FGs, and 25/27 on XPs. He's improved on that so far, at 17/19 FGs, and a perfect 18/18 on PATs.
Harrison Butker | 82pts | 16.04 Chiefs Kicker Harrison Butker is perfect through eight games - 18/18 on FGs, 19/19 on XPs. There aren't many who can brag about that - and Andy Reid has shown confidence in Butker. His longest FGs from the last three years are 56yds (2021), 62yds (2022), and 60yds (2023). His accuracy is improving too - another box checked for Coach Reid.
Brandon Aubrey | 77pts | UDFA A 28-year old rookie kicker in Dallas - not what many people had in mind when the season was getting underway in August. The former failed soccer star turned to the USFL before getting a tryout with the NFL - and Dallas hasn't let go of him since. An impressive 18/18 on FGs with his longest being 58yds, he's only missed one XP (17/18). He could be a tide-turning player in a close fantasy playoff game.
Rookie Outlook: (Current Rookie Rank / Pts / RelVal)
CJ Stroud | 123.3pts | 17.09 I thought Stroud was going to struggle - but he's been the most-surprising rookie so far this year. Currently QB15, he's about to eclipse the 2k PaYds mark (and is 1 toss away from his 10th PaTD). He could use some more options to throw to, but he's making a lot out of a bad situation right now.
Puka Nacua | 122.4pts | UDFA This guy wasn't even on the radar for analysts ahead of the Cooper Kupp injury. The Puka stock exploded through the roof when Kupp went down to start the season - and the Nacua Craze hasn't stopped. He's a strong route runner with quick feet - and he doesn't lose the ball once he has it. 61 catches on 89 targets for 795yds and 2TDs, he's got a real shot at locking down a spot on the Rams roster for the foreseeable future.
Jordan Addison | 112.4pts | 7.04 There was a lot of hype around Addison when he was drafted to compliment Justin Jefferson. I bought in, and put him in my Top-10 Rookie Projections for the year. Then JJettas was moved to IR, and the league went on notice. Addison only has 36 catches this year, but he's nearly at 500yds with 7TDs. All that attention to Jefferson/Hockenson has given Addison the extra room on the gridiron he needs to make an impact. He has at least 4-catches and 50yds in five games - eclipsing the 10pt Fantasy Marker six times in eight games. Will his target share go down once Jefferson returns? Maybe. But he's earned respect of defenses based on his recent performance.
Kyren Williams | 104.6pts | UDFA Another Ram who came from out of nowhere! Talk about lightning in a bottle - Kyren Williams took the NFL by storm after the first two weeks of the season. He's been out of the lineup since his injury in Week 6, but he's still listed at RB7. He's averaging 16 carries per game when he plays, with 7TDs of his own. Once cleared from IR, Kyren could surge back to the top of the rookie class if his usage matches the beginning of the year.
De'Von Achane | 97.2pts | 11.06 Big boom or bust guy here - Achane has four games with points logged: Week 2 (1.4pts), Week 3 (49.3pts), Week 4 (25.5pts), Week 5 (21pts). That's when we went to IR... but one thing is for certain, that points average is not sustainable. Especially with the RBC in Miami, Achane will be a fantastic asset - both in fantasy and the NFL. I snuck him in as a Top-10 Rookie this year in the projections, and now I'm wondering if his usage will return once he's back in the lineup.
Big Misses: This list is based off of my preseason predictions - MVP candidates, Keepers 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 lists, as well as players who are typically at the top of their game who have fallen off in the production category.
Joe Burrow (QB22) | 97.2pts | 7.03 He was nursing a calf injury to start the year, but up until last week, he didn't have any "Joe Burrow-like" performances. Struggling to move the ball downfield, not finding Ja'Marr Chase nearly as often as Bengals fans would have liked - many people were worried that Burrow got his bag and left town (mentally). The Bengals are trending back up in the standings, which means that Burrow is finding his game again. I think he will be just fine - but he's definitely a buy-low guy if he's on the block.
Najee Harris (RB33) | 53.2pts | 3.01 Najee Harris had a spectacular year as a rookie in 2021. Since then, he hasn't done s***. As a matter of fact, the backup RB in Pittsburgh (Jaylen Warren) has nearly as many rushing yards and more than twice the receiving yards as Harris - is listed at RB32 in the AJFFL. As the iconic South Park cartoon loves to sing... "BLAME CANADA"! Harris needs a swift kick in the rear-end if owners are going to find any value from him moving forward.
Aaron Jones (RB45) | 43.8pts | 2.11 The only backfield in more turmoil than Pittsburgh (in my Fantasy opinion) is Green Bay. Aaron Jones has been the true Number 1 for the Packers for years, but AJ Dillion is getting the work. Jones has 244 All-Purpose Yds through Week 8, and 2TDs. Meanwhile, AJ Dillon has 266 Rushing Yards and 100 Receiving Yds (he's also RB 40). Is this the final straw for Jones? We've already seen one Power RB from the NFC North get axed from their team in the last few seasons (Dalvin Cook), could Jones be the next to go?
Rashaad Penny (RB119) | 1.9pts | 5.05 Penny was expected to compliment D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell in the Philadelphia backfield - but he's not even getting on the field. He played in Week 2 and had four touches, suited up in Week 3 and didn't play - and has been inactive in every week since. Time to drop him if you still have him. His season is just about done, barring injury.
Dalvin Cook (RB70) | 18.5pts | 5.08 Dalvin Cook was expected to be a big part of the NYJ offense this year, and Aaron Rodgers was going to help take their offense to the next level. Well, four plays into their season and it seems everything has changed. Dalvin Cook hasn't looked himself - it doesn't even appear like he wants be playing football. Then last week, he asked for a trade. See how well that worked out for him? Breece Hall is the clear Number 1 for the Jets, and Cook should be thankful he's getting paid to watch from the best seat in the house. He's had 12 touches for 42yds in the last four weeks. Time to bail.
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