This will be a pretty straightforward post - I'll be going over three players from each position that I thought was a "Must-Have" on your roster, but ended up being a drop candidate at some point during the year. No if's ands or buts - just cases of mistaken identity for budding stars in the league.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals 244 Completions | 365 Attempts | 2309 Passing Yards | 15TD | 6 INT | 155.46 Regular Season Points (RSP) | 155.46 Total Fantasy Points (TFP) | 15.55 Value per Games Played (VpGP) | 0.56 Relative Value (RelVal) Injuries happen. But it completely derailed the Cincinnati Bengals momentum when Joe Burrow went down. Burrow and the Bengals started the year slow, at 1-3 before getting things (somewhat) back in order. After only scoring 49pts in their first four games, Burrow helped reignite the Bengals offense by throwing for 1480yds and 12TDs over his next five games, leading them back to a 5-4 record before injuring his hand in Week 11 vs Baltimore - ending his season. Looking at the stats, Burrow's Fantasy Season ended with him as QB24 in regards to his week-to-week performance (VpGP). His RelVal was much lower than his performances in years past (0.56 in 2023, 0.89 in 2022, 0.82 in 2021), but you can point to his three-games scoring below 10pts (Wk 1 - 3.28pts / Wk 4 - 4.7pts / Wk 11 - 8.74pts). Removing those three, (Achilles injury in the preseason that carried over into Week 1, a flare up in Week 4, and injuring his hand and leaving early in Week 11), Burrow's VpGP shoots up to a 19.82, or a RelVal of 0.72. Not that it backs up the poor play, but Burrow could have been a Top-Tier QB if he was able to stay healthy - this year was not a reflection of his ability.
Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers 297 Completions | 465 Attempts | 3134Yds | 20TD | 7 INT | 242.22 RSP | 242.22 TFP | 18.63 VpGP | 0.67 RelVal Herbert and company fell off a cliff this year. Brandon Staley fell through the cracks, and now Jim Harbaugh is leading the Chargers. One thing we know for sure - Harbaugh got the most out of his players in the NCAA. Reports from his time in SF says he ruffled a lot of feathers with his coaching style, but this LAC team needs a kick in their @$$. Justin Herbert has had one stellar season (2021) in the last few years. His last two seasons are fairly similar in comparison... (2022 - 16gp, 276.94pts, 17.31VpGP, 0.66RelVal / 2023 - 13gp, 242.22pts, 18.63VpGP, 0.67RelVal). His overall RelVal is 'regressing to the mean', for lack of a better term (Lifetime RelVal is now 0.72). With Austin Ekeler and either Mike Williams or Keenan Allen preparing to hit the Free Agency Market, Quinten Johnston and Josh Palmer should see expanded roles in their offensive game plan - unless they opt for a WR in the draft again. LAC owns a pick in each round, and two in the 7th this upcoming April - let's see if they address the trenches or go for a skill-position. Either way, Herbert's high expectations missed the mark. He's going to need to put in a lot of work this offseason to be listed as a Top-10 QB coming into 2024.
Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars 370 Completions | 564 Attempts | 4016Yds | 21TD | 14 INT | 236.34 RSP | 262.34 TFP | 17.49 VpGP | 0.63 RelVal Lawrence had been labelled the savior of the Jaguars - but this past season may have people second-guessing their projections. TLaw was taken first overall for obvious reasons, and 2022's performance was impressive enough to bump him up to a reliable option in the NFL - and someone you could lean on in Fantasy. His 291.44pts in 16gp went for an 18.22VpGP (0.70RelVal). This year, it was much of the same: 15gp, 262.34pts, 17.49VpGP, 0.63RelVal - dropping him to a QB12 finish in 2023 from QB7 in 2022. Not exactly a huge drop, but it's the difference between spending a 5th Rd Pick and a 9th Rd Pick in Fantasy. Calvin Ridley provided a small spark to this offense, but not what they needed to be explosive. The Jaguars had every opportunity to take the division this year, yet they floundered at every opportunity. Looking at their defensive performances, they allowed 350+ Total Yds 11 times this year, and 20pts or more 12 times... the only highlight seems to be 40 Sacks, 17 INTs, and 11 Fumble Recoveries. Due to the lack of punt returns, Jacksonville will need Lawrence to take care of the football better in order to keep up with his opponents (14 INTs and 7 Fumbles Lost in 2023) - because it seems apparent his defense can't help but let opposing teams put up points.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler Los Angeles Chargers 179 Car | 628Yds | 5TDs | 41 Rec | 74 Tar | 436RecYds | 1 RecTD | 132.1 RSP | 151.5 TFP | 11.65 VpGP | 0.52 RelVal Austin Ekeler looked a step slower and a bit lost this past season. His utilization dropped substantially compared to last year (179 Rushing Attempts for 628Yds, 51 Receptions on 74 Targets for 436Yds, 6 Total TDs). Preseason Predictions had Ekeler finishing as a MVP candidate - and he didn't even finish as a Top-20RB (RB24). With the Chargers contract behind him, Ekeler looks to a fresh start somewhere new - or at least, under a new coaching staff. Harbaugh's offensive style should open up room for a RB like Ekeler, but that's if he sticks around in LA. Long story short, he missed the mark and was underwhelming in 2023 - let's see if the narrative changes around him coming into the 2024 season - whether that's due to a new team, or new offensive scheme.
Saquon Barkley New York Giants 247 Car | 962Yds | 6TD | 41 Rec | 60 Tar | 280RecYds | 4 RecTDs | 150.6 RSP | 180.5 TFP | 13.88 VpGP | 0.62 RelVal This was a difficult one to swallow, but looking at his overall season - he was a bit of a miss. Saquon was expected to be relied on heavily due to the QB situation in New York - Daniel Jones up front with supporting cast members Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. Jones and Taylor went down with injuries, leaving 3rd String QB DeVito to start - and Barkley's role expected to expand after returning from an early-season injury. But Barkley returned to the lineup for a consistent four weeks of play before entering a Boom or Bust pattern - 7pts in Week 10, 28pts in Week 11, 6pts in Week 12 followed by another up and down finish to the year. Don't get me wrong - the Giants are not a good football team right now. Saquon, among other big names, are slated for Free Agency... Taylor, Sterling Shepard, even backup RB Matt Brieda... A full rebuild is about to rain down on the Giants. Barkley's underwhelming 2023 shouldn't be too much concern though - his 2022 showcases his ceiling much better (258pts, 16.13VpGP, 0.77RelVal). A change of scenery should help - but there's a chance he get Franchise Tagged again... if that's the case, I might consider avoiding Barkley in 2024.
Jamaal Williams New Orleans Saints 106 Car | 306Yds | 1TD | 18 Rec | 20 Tar | 62 RecYds | 26.9 RSP | 40.9 TFP | 3.41 VpGP | 0.15 RelVal One year removed from being the NFL Rushing TD Leader, Jamaal Williams scored only 1 touchdown in 2023 - and it was his last touch of the regular season. His smash mouth-style football was supposed to help NOLA be dominant in both the passing game and the ground game... but Derek Carr wasn't able to come through on that side of the ball. This team is missing their identity - and Jamaal did not fit the mold here. Projected to be a Top-25 RB this year, Williams finished as RB72 after his lackluster season - without exceeding 10pts in Fantasy Scoring at any point in 2023. A lot needs to change in New Orleans - and Williams is locked up for at least one more season (Opt-Out clause ahead of 2025). For a UDFA, this guy has carved out a respectable career in the NFL as a Running Back... but he's going to need more help to get this team moving down the field.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams Las Vegas Raiders 103 Rec | 175 Targets | 144Yds | 8TD | 152.7 RSP | 204.8 TFP | 12.8 VpGP | 0.64 RelVal You might say I'm crazy for putting Tae on this list, but the truth is: he underperformed all season long. He still finished WR20, but this is a guy who is expected to be a Top-10 WR every year - and he didn't miss a game in 2023. As a matter of fact, Adams hasn't missed a Fantasy Football Game in his last three seasons - and this was the lowest total he accumulated across all three seasons. Maybe that's a reflection of the QB situation in LV... Aiden O'Connell and Jimmy G were not exactly home-run picks, but you gotta work with what you got. Adams saw nearly 400 fewer Receiving Yards on a similar number of targets and receptions - but his statline was also low in TD receptions with four of his TD Receptions coming in the last four weeks of the season (14 in 2022, 8 in 2023). The Saints own a Pick in the 1st (14th Overall) and 2nd Rounds (45), but won't see another pick until four in the 5th Rd (148, 166, 168, 173), along with two in the 6th (191, 200) and a 7th Rd Pick (229). Could they be retooling and not rebuilding? Their cap situation suggests that's the best path next season... but with a new coach at the helm, you could see a very similar squad rolling out to start the 2024 season - and hopes that Adams returns to form due to the growth of the players around him.
Cooper Kupp Los Angeles Rams 59 Rec | 95 Targets | 737Yds | 5TD | 97.2 RSP | 139.2 TFP | 11.60 VpGP | 0.58 RelVal Cooper missed a portion of the season, causing him to land on this list. Speaking statistically, his RelVal ended near the upper-middle of the WR pack (0.58), but his four missed matchups to star the year was a huge hit to his impact - not to mention his six-week slide through the Bye Week (20.7pts over six games from Wk 7 - Wk 12). The combination of those two results in Kupp being a bust for his draft position, and what was expected of him. Granted, Puka Nacua's emergence (along with Kyren Williams) helped take a lot of the heavy lifting off of Kupp, but maybe that was the strategy. With Kupp aging, it's time to spread the ball around more. Let's see what happens in the LAR backfield this offseason, and who's under center come September. His 2023 Stats ended with 50 catches for 737yds and 5TDs, falling short of his 2022 performance of 812yds on 75 catches with 6TDs... Kupp's reign as an elite WR may be dwindling, and he hasn't seen a season like his 2021 career year. Maybe we won't see another one again from Kupp - but his understanding of the game is still next level, and he can be a contributing factor to the youth on this team for at least another season... which is a good thing for the Rams, as his Potential Out on his contract comes after the 2024 season.
Jaylen Waddle Miami Dolphins 72 Rec | 104 Targets | 1014Yds | 4TD | 132.9 RSP | 166.8 TFP | 11.91 VpGP | 0.59 RelVal Waddle is in the last year of his deal in Miami, and you should expect big thigs from him this upcoming season. Especially after this past year... Waddle was 300yds short of his 2022 performance, and had 4 less TD catches while missing three games. His usage was more along the lines of his rookie season - when he caught 104 passes on 140 targets. Waddle's minimal base salary ($1.1M) is accompanied by a $4.265M Signing Bonus, a $3.3M Roster Bonus, for an $8.62M Cap Hit. There is a fifth-year option available for Waddle, which will heavily depend on if McDaniels can get it done and move past the 1st Rd of the postseason. That being said, his health will remain a focus coming into the season. Waddle finished WR30 while his counterpart, Tyreek Hill, finished WR1. Hard to match the pace of Cheetah, but expectations were substantially higher for Waddle coming into the year - maybe we overshot that projection. He should still be a reliable WR2 for your squad this fall.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox Buffalo Bills 22 Rec | 36 Targets | 186Yds | 2TD | 30.8 RSP | 34.4 TFP | 3.13 VpGP | 0.20 RelVal Dalton Kincaid wasn't expected to burst onto the scene the way he did - it was expected to be more of a 1A/1B relationship between him and Dawson Knox. That theory was quickly washed away... Through the first four games of the season, Kincaid was targeted 17 times to Knox's 13 - only to pick up offensive production due to Kincaid missing a game and a half due to injury. Knox would then miss five games, and never find a rhythm after - collecting only 8 targets (7 catches) in his final five games of the 2023 season for 84yds and a TD in Week 18. In that same window, Kincaid hauled in 17 passes on 27 targets for 199yds. Considering the Cap Hit Knox is carrying next season ($14.3M), this could be one of the first cap-casualties of the offseason. His production has tapered off over the last three seasons, and now a younger player is outperforming him. Buffalo would be wise to shed what they can - while they can.
Juwan Johnson New Orleans Saints 37 Rec | 59 Targets | 368Yds | 4TD | 31.2 RSP | 73.8 TFP | 6.15 VpGP | 0.39 RelVal Johnson is heading into his fourth NFL season, but his stats have never really been anything exciting. His sophomore season outperformed this past year, and I think a lot of it has to do with Taysom Hill stealing snaps from Johnson. Don't get me wrong - Taysom Hill is quite the athlete. But Johnson isn't getting passes when Hill is under center... or taking a sweep... and this past year, he was adjusting to a new QB with Derek Carr. One would hope Johnson's best football is still ahead of him; at 27 years young, he has logged 1033yds on 92 catches with 15TDs in three seasons. Johnson signed a one-year deal last season that will carry a $5.5M Cap Hit, compared to Hill's $15.8M Cap Hit. Johnson is currently listed as TE1 ahead of Hill on the depth chart, but that doesn't mean much heading into the off-season.
Zach Ertz Arizona Cardinals 27 Rec | 43 Targets | 187Yds | 1TD | 38.2 RSP | 38.2 TFP | 5.46 VpGP | 0.35 RelVal Ertz signed a Practice Squad agreement with the Lions ahead of their NFCCG against the San Francisco 49ers - but that expired the Monday following their game. It was a safety-net move by Detroit, after Brock Wright was placed on IR two weeks after James Mitchell was placed on IR due to a hand-injury. In reality - Ertz will hit the Free Agent Market to see if there could be any interest in the 33year old TE. The Cardinals waived Ertz on November 30th after being placed on IR for a quadricep injury. Like those mentioned above him, his production has had a downward trend over the last three years - and it doesn't appear to be getting any better. There aren't a lot of openings in the TE market right now - especially when there are younger players who are less injury prone available ahead of Ertz.
Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles 6084 Yards Allowed | 428 Points Against | 39 Sacks | 9INT | 16 FF | 89.0 RSP | 101.0 TFP | 6.31 VpGP | 0.52 RelVal The Eagles were expected to be one of the best defenses in the league this year - they ended near the bottom. Philly saw the most passes against them (and the second most completions), while giving up 35TDs and securing 9 INTs. QBR's averaged a 97.6 against the 'stout Philadelphia Defense', which was the fourth-highest QBR for opposing QB's in the league (behind Denver, Arizona, and Washington). Not to mention the 410 rushes they saw, averaging 4.3YPC (tied for 6th most Yards-per-Carry Against in the league). While they did force 16 fumbles, their 8 recoveries indicate they just couldn't get to it once it hit the turf. Nick Sirianni decided it was enough to jump ship - removing Philly's Defensive Coordinator Sean Desai play-calling for Matt Patricia's poor decision-making in December... (to no one's surprise, things got worse). Now with Patricia on the outs, Philly has announced the hiring of Vic Fangio - who served as Miami's DC in 2023. This group has talent, but we'll see if there are any growing pains as the team readjusts to Fangio's defensive approach.
New England Patriots 5127 Yards Allowed | 366 Points Against | 47 Sacks | 10 INT | 15 FF | 80.0 RSP | 39.0 TFP | 7.44 VpGP | 0.61 RelVal New England was BAD this year... offensively speaking. Their defense wasn't as abysmal as their record made it out to be. The Patriots allowed 3791 yards in the air, and 19TDs - but garnered 10 INTs, 15 Forced Fumbles, and 47 Sacks. They landed 15th in Points Allowed in the league, but it doesn't help when the defense has a short field... New England threw 21 INTs and dropped the ball eight times offensively, putting them behind the 8-ball more times than not. Could this defense be one of the better defenses in the league? I think that's a bit of a stretch. But here's my hot-take: The Patriots are a fringe playoff team if their offense gets their act together.
Seattle Seahawks 6313 Yards Allowed | 402 Points Against | 38 Sacks | 11 INT | 13 FF | 102.0 RSP | 120.0 TFP | 7.5 VpGP | 0.62 RelVal The Seahawks were slated to be a fringe-playoff team this year thanks to Geno Smith's successful year in 2022. Expectations were set aside after Week 1's thrashing from the Rams (30-13), but concerns quickly waded away after Week 2's 37-31 Overtime victory over the Lions. From there, it was kind of a back-and-forth season for the Seahawks... they finished the year at 9-8, missing the postseason by one game. Their record against teams in the postseason finished at 3-7, taking down Detroit, Cleveland (Wk 8), and Philadelphia (Wk 15). Three solid wins, but it was poor performances outside of that... Seattle was outscored 282-200 in those matchups - most of which came in the final eight weeks of the regular season. This defensive group gave up the third-most-yards to opponents, but they made some key takeaways when they needed to - earning 19 Turnovers throughout the year. This core is young, too... and they just added a key piece to their defense: Mike Macdonald. He's been an integral part of several defensive surges - from the NCAA (Graduate Assistant to Defensive Quality Control Assistant at Georgia from 2010-2013, and Defensive Coordinator at University of Michigan in 2021) to two stints with the Baltimore Ravens (2014-2020, 2022-2023). My hot take: this group could be the next Legion of Boom if Macdonald handles them the right way. It sure would be impressive to see him bring two defensive powerhouses back to their former glory.
Most Valuable Player
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals See above... he was projected to be a Top-Tier QB, and an injury shortened his season. You can count him to bounce back - but don't expect him to out-perform his 2022 numbers.
Austin Ekeler Los Angeles Chargers See above... multiple outlets say it was a combination of a bad offense and a lack of effort... whatever it was, Ekeler is looking for greener pastures.
Mark Andrews Baltimore Ravens Like Burrow, Andrews saw his season cut short due to injury. He was on-pace to be a Top-5 TE too - something he regularly produces with Lamar Jackson under center. Even with his Week 11 injury, Andrews ended his season as TE9. Just imagine what he can do with a full-season... his pace was good enough to set himself as TE2 if he finished the season.
Rookies
Quinten Johnston Los Angeles Chargers 38 Rec | 67 Targets | 431Yds | 2TD | 56.0 RSP | 73.7 TFP | 4.61 VpGP | 0.23 RelVal QJ fell flat on his face this year - and you can blame that on the fact that he refuses to use his hands. That's going to be his biggest hurdle - learning to catch the ball out front, rather than in his chest. With some potential openings ahead of him on the LAC Depth Chart - and Jim Harbaugh at the helm - QJ could bounce back to have an impressive 2024. Don't hold your breath though - despite his speed and size, he needs to prove his hands are right there with him. If he's not pulling an ARSB after every practice (catching 200+ balls from the JUGS machine), don't expect substantial improvements from him or the LA Offense. He didn't get enough looks to solidify his future - but it doesn't take much to know he's got some growing up to do.
Bryce Young Carolina Panthers 315 Completions | 527 Attempts | 2877Yds | 11TD | 10 INT | 125.78 RSP | 158.22 TFP | 10.55 VpGP | 0.38 RelVal Young didn't have any help this year - and it was obvious. Carolina sold the farm (and the picks meant to help support Bryce) in the trade to acquire the 1st Overall Pick from the Bears last season. Where did it get them? Right back where they started - while giving this year's 1st Overall Pick back to the Bears. Speaking fantasy points comparison: Young's closest matches are Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, and Mac Jones... that's not good company. Even Desmond Ridder finished as a higher QB prospect than these four. Bryce is a competitor, and all the articles from Carolina talk about how his understanding of the game is second-to-none. But if he doesn't get the time to use that knowledge, he's going to be useless to this franchise. Carolina will have some more growing pains this year, but expect a step forward from the Panthers Offense. Not because of their coach... but because of this guy.
Zach Charbonnet Seattle Seahawks 108 Car | 462Yds | 1TDs | 33 Rec | 40 Tar | 209RecYds | 74.4 RSP | 83.1 TFP | 5.54 VpGP | 0.25 RelVal Charbonnet was RB2 in a slow-moving offense this year. Kenneth Walker III returned to spearhead the running game, but the Seahawks never really turned the corner with their offensive production. Charbs had a slight emergence after Walker went down with an injury in Week 11, but there wasn't much before or after to write home about. Maybe that's due to the offensive scheme, or you could point the finger at the Rookie RB status of Charbonnet... he wasn't exactly on pace with KW3's rookie performance last year. Granted, Walker had more than double the number of carries in his rookie year compared to Charbonnet's (219 Carries for KW3 in 2022) - but he also scored 7 more TD's, earning more trust with the running game. Could we see Zach take the next step in 2024? Possibly - it really depends on how the Seahawks decide to use him.
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