We are SO CLOSE to the NFL Super Bowl - so why not reflect on our top Fantasy Performers from this year? We'll highlight our 2023 MVP and Rookie of the Year winners (and runners-up) - while making some way-too-early predictions on how their 2024 season will fare! Take these with a grain of salt - most of these guys will have a lot of changing scenery around them come next season... whether it's coaching staff, their supporting cast members, or their team colors. Let's dive in!
*NOTE: I used www.spotrac.com to find all financial information on players, while referring to www.nfl.com for statistics.*
1. Josh Allen - QB Buffalo Bills
I doubted Allen would return to the top of this list, but here he is again - terrorizing the AFC East. The Bills QB threw for 4306yds and 29TDs - only trailing Tua Tagovailoa (4624yds/29TD), Jared Goff (4575yds/30TD), and Dak Prescott (4516yds/36TD) - while finishing the year with the fewest sacks among the group (24). The Bills WR room is dangerous - and Allen is making the most of it while he still can. At the same time, Buffalo had their first 1000yd Rusher (James Cook, 1122RuYds) since Shady McCoy in 2017 - which helps this offense become more than the one-dimensional deep-threat to Diggs. If Allen is to remain at the top of this list next year, he will need to improve his judgements... his 18INT's were second only to Sam Howell this past year. And with Allen's $47M cap hit, you can expect some changes to come to the Bills - some big names may be on the way out of Buffalo this offseason.
2. Jalen Hurts - QB Philadelphia Eagles
It comes as no surprise that Jalen Hurts was #2 in the MVP race this year. The guy can throw the ball a country-mile, and he gets major boosts for that Philly-Tush-Push that may or may not be returning to the NFL next season. But Hurts-Stock is dropping rapidly as Jason Kelce's retirement announcement permeates the league. It doesn't take anything away from Hurts' ability to read defenses and throw the ball - but it could have a major impact in the protection to get those passes off. Not only that, but D'Andre Swift is in need of a new contract - while Kenneth Gainwell has one year left worth $1M. Let's pile it on, shall we? The depth WR's are also due for a new deal (Quez Watkins/Omalide Zacceaus). Lots of turnover on a team that was expected to hang a banner... they may be entering a soft-rebuild next year unless they can find another low-cost/high-effective trade like they did with Swift last season.
3. Tyreek Hill - WR Miami Dolphins
The most explosive WR in the game, and one of two non-QB players to make the list - Tyreek Hill earned his keep with his multiple 40yd+ TD's. They seemed to come every week... For the second season in a row, Cheetah eclipsed the 1700Yds mark - and was only 1yd shy of 1800 (1st in NFL) in 2023. Hill hauled in 13TD's (T-1st) with 29 catches for 20yds+ (T-1st), 9 catches for 40yds+ (1st), and 652YAC (3rd). This guy will be dangerous again next year - and you can put him near the top of the WR board.
4. Christian McCaffrey - RB San Francisco 49ers
If you didn't have CMC as the top RB in the league coming into the season, I'm not sure what you're on. The guy was electric on a bad Carolina Panthers offense... when he was traded to SF during the 2022 season, it all but locked up his RB1 performances for years to come - as long as he stays healthy. CMC ran for 1459yds (1st) and 14TDs (2nd among RBs), while only losing the football twice all season. This was the first time McCaffrey eclipsed 1400yds in his career - he ran for 1387 on the 2019 Panthers team, but only broke 1000yds one other time in his career (2018). Health will continue to play a major factor in CMC's future - but he's shown that when he's in the lineup, you want him on your team.
5. Dak Prescott - QB Dallas Cowboys
HERE WE GOOOOOOO, OH ****. This was the first big surprise to me - I didn't even have Dak as a Top-10 QB coming into the year after last season's struggle. He slapped his worth on the table by airing out 150% more passing yards compared to 2022 while leading the league in TD's. His ball control improved immensely too - throwing only 9INTs compared to 2022's 15INTs. Still, he was sacked 39 times this year - almost double his 2022 count of 20 sacks (which is possibly why his INT count was lower this season - hanging on rather than forcing the play). Dallas will need to address their RB situation - as Pollard (UFA) and Rico Dowdle (RFA) could walk, but the throwing options aren't changing much. Dak may need to rework his contract with Jerry Jones - as it's expected to be nearly $60M Cap Hit for the former Mississippi State QB - while CeeDee Lamb ($17.9M), Michael Gallup ($13.8M), and Brandin Cooks ($10M) are still under contract for next year. It all wraps up to - Dak did a lot of heavy lifting for your team this year, and you can put some more stock into him next season as a result.
6. Brock Purdy - QB San Francisco 49ers
I said Brock Purdy and Mac Jones were in the same tier of QB's coming into the year. Boy, was I wrong about that. Purdy may have been Mr. Irrelevant, but he's shown just how smart he is with the football. It helps when you have some of the best skill-position players around you - and it makes it even easier when you take only 28 sacks in 16 games. The O-Line in SF is elite, and it allowed Purdy to torch defenses for 4,200+yds in the air, and land 31 PaTDs. Do I need to say more? The longer this kid stays upright, the more likely he is to find an open receiver downfield. He might not be the flashiest, or the fastest, but he's definitely one of the smartest guys getting the football - his success backs that claim up.
7. Lamar Jackson - QB Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson won the Heisman for a reason - and it's been translating to the NFL quite impressively. This past season, the Ravens introduced a brand new offensive scheme with Todd Monken as OC - and although it took a few weeks for them to start clicking, they've been firing on all cylinders ever since Week 4. Baltimore scored less than 20pts in games only twice this season (Week 5 vs Pittsburgh, and Week 18 vs Pittsburgh*, when a group their starters were resting). Only three teams were able to put up more points than the Ravens (483pts) in the regular season - Dallas (509pts), Miami (496pts), and San Francisco (491pts). The next team on that list? The Detroit Lions (461pts). Baltimore needs to lock down their identity, because they do not run the ball effectively - and that could be due to the lack of RBs staying healthy on their depth chart. Next year will be interesting for this team. One thing is for sure though - Lamar can get them out of trouble with his legs or his arm. Get him some backfield help, and this team should be a lock for another Super Bowl push.
8. C.J. Stroud - QB Houston Texans
This was another name I was NOT expecting to be on this list. As a matter of fact, I expected the QB drafted higher than Stroud to be on this list. But that's a testament to the team around him and what they're building; Stroud surpassed ALL expectations and took home the Rookie of the Year award in the AJFFL - along with this Top-10 MVP Finish. Tank Dell and Nico Collins provided a lot of help - but Devin Singletary took on the workload out of the backfield after Dameon Pierce went down with an injury. Even with the changes, Stroud's numbers hit some impressive marks (Wk9 vs TB - 470PaYds, 5TD, 0INT, Wk12 vs JAC - 304PaYds, 2PaTDs, 0INT, 6Rushes, 47Yds, RuTD). This offense is young, and worth putting some stock into - if you can get your hands on any of them.
9. Patrick Mahomes - QB Kansas City Chiefs
Swing and a miss here - I didn't expect Mahomes to pull off any more magic with the lack of WR's on their depth chart. Needless to say, Mahomes Magic doesn't stop - he knows how to get the most out of his teammates. Not only did he navigate the AFC West to an 11-6 Division-Winning record, he did it while throwing the ball to 16 different players throughout the year. Granted, there was a big drop-off from the top two players and the next two (Travis Kelce had 121 Targets, Rashee Rice: 102 Targets, Justin Watson: 53 Targets, Isiah Pacheco: 49 Targets). I think this just goes to show - don't bet against Patty Mahomes.
10. Sam Howell - QB Washington Commanders
For a guy who was hitting the turf more than any other QB in the league, it's amazing he found his way to this Top-10. Howell played for an abysmal offense, but somehow found a way to throw for 3946yds and 21TDs on the year. His notable games (388yds, 2TD, INT vs CHI, 397yds, 4TD, INT vs PHI, and 312yds, 3TD vs SEA) all came before the Bye week - not that it means anything specific, just an interesting observation. Could Howell be here next season? Time will tell... the Commanders are going through yet another regime change, but Howell is entering his second season. He could be the silver lining from this past year's Washington team.
Changing gears, let's highlight our 2023 Rookie of the Year race!
1. C.J. Stroud - QB Houston Texans
As you can read above, Stroud ran away with this category. The next guy in line set records for his amazing first season, but it was nothing compared to what Stroud and his young teammates were able to accomplish. I'm not going to expand on this any further - Houston had a magical season this year, and DeMeco Ryans is expecting even more in the years to come - and Stroud is buying-in.
2. Puka Nacua - WR Los Angeles Rams
It helps to have Matthew Stafford throwing to you - but this guys passion for the game is second-to-none. Early reports from this season were saying there were three guys always in the film room - Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua. These guys are on a different level when it comes to understanding the game - and it shows in their production together. Nacua went for 1486yds (4th in the NFL) and 6TDs on 160 targets - which ended up being the 7th most targeted WR in 2023 (105 Receptions - 8th in the NFL). The question isn't if he's good enough to do it again - it will be is his quarterback good enough for him to reproduce those numbers? Stafford is rumored to be considering retirement, and Stetson Bennett is next in line on the depth-chart unless they make a move this offseason. I like Nacua and his skill - he's going to continue to get most of the looks moving forward. But his effectiveness may vary.
3. Kyren Williams - RB Los Angeles Rams
You don't typically see two skill-position players at the top of this list from the same team - but that had a lot to do with the lack of competition for Kyren. Cam Akers was traded and Kyren stepped into the every-down role immediately (and hasn't looked back). His 1144RuYds (3rd in NFL) and 12TDs (5th in NFL) paced most of the league - only Royce Freeman challenged him. But the Rams backfield has been volatile since Todd Gurley left the scene. Williams was good - but let's see if he's even listed as RB1 on the depth chart ahead of the Preseason in 2024.
4. Bijan Robinson - RB Atlanta Falcons
Had Arthur Smith been relieved of his duties earlier, Bijan may have found his way closer to the top of this list. Now, (Former LA Rams Defensive Coordinator) Raheem Morris is the Falcons HC, and there may be even more changes to come from the offensive side of things as a result. Robinson stock is still high - he's a strong runner and has a young offense around him. Barring any serious injury, things can't get much worse than this past season for Bijan.
5. Jahmyr Gibbs - RB Detroit Lions
Gibbs was taken high in the draft by Brad Holmes, and most people thought he would be a compliment to RB1 David Montgomery. What everyone was wrong about, was the fact that it was more of a 1A/1B relationship between the two-headed monster in the Detroit Backfield. Gibbs put up a lot of impressive numbers - 945RuYds (17th in NFL), 10RuTDs (8th in NFL), 52 Receptions (9th in NFL for RB's) for 316RecYds, and 1RecTD. The explosive offense continued to find ways to utilize his speed once he got comfortable in Detroit - and he's going to have some high stock as well moving forward.
6. Tank Dell - WR Houston Texans
Clearly C.J. Stroud's favorite target - until his untimely injury ended his season - Tank Dell was THE GUY in Houston for the first 12 Weeks of the season. He was third in our Rookie of the Year race (behind none other than C.J. Stroud and Puka Nacua), averaging 7.5Targets/Game and 4.7 Catches/Game for just over 70RecYds (that's a 62% success rate throwing to Dell). Stroud found a rhythm with Nico Collins after Dell went down - causing concern to his future stock... but Dell's season was quite impressive for the time he was in the lineup. There are other concerns about this offense - as there are a few Free Agents that may change the offensive attack of this team - but Stroud/Dell/Collins seem poised to continue their success against the AFC South.
7. Sam LaPorta - TE Detroit Lions
Another Detroit Lions Skill-Position player making the list! Clearly they're doing something right - and it's translating to all kinds of success on the gridiron. The rookie ended his Fantasy Regular Season with TE4 numbers (147.6pts) - but his Fantasy Postseason usage bumped up, resulting in a TE1 overall finish (188.9pts). For a rookie - that's astonishing. LaPorta had seven games over 10pts, and only two games where he finished with less than 5 points. His 86 receptions on 120 targets led rookie TE's (only Second in Receptions/Targets to Puka Nacua), trailing Travis Kelce (93Rec on 121Targets), TJ Hockenson (95Rec on 127Targets), and Evan Engram (114Rec on 143Targets) for the most utilized TE in 2023. He really stood out in the TD Department though, hauling in 10 touchdowns on the year - four better than any other TE in the league (Njoku, Kmet, Kittle, Andrews, Henry all with 6TDs in 2023). Needless to say, his future looks bright. He'll have the offseason to rehab the knee injury back to full health, and a hungry Lions offense looking to wreak more havoc on the NFC North.
8. Jordan Addison - WR Minnesota Vikings
Addison was one of the highest rated WR's in this past year's draft class, and he was thrust into WR1 responsibilities after Justin Jefferson went down with an injury in Week 5 - missing eight weeks of football. That didn't slow Addison down though, as he continued to surpass expectations to start the year. His first eight games of the year netted him 112.4pts (14.05ppg) - a remarkable feat for a Rookie WR. The only other rookie WR's to keep pace with those kinds of numbers were Puka Nacua and Tank Dell - and Addison cashed in while he could. The tail end of his season seemed to slow down in production - but his target share didn't drop much (6.4 Targets per game in the first half of the season, vs 6.2 Targets per Game in the second half). His 10TD's helped bolster his numbers to a WR23 Finish - but his future is uncertain with the state of the Vikings Backfield. They're in need of a reliable RB1, and Kirk Cousins' future is still up in the air (with rumors of him signing in Las Vegas). Still - Addison will be a great compliment to Jefferson as they both mature together. If they can get a true gunslinger in Minnesota, this offense may be more dangerous than everyone gives them credit for.
9. Jayden Reed - WR Green Bay Packers
Much like Addison, Reed took on an expanded role due to injuries ahead of him on the depth chart - he cashed in as well. The former Western Michigan Bronco/Michigan State Spartan finished his rookie season at WR26 in the regular season, but his Fantasy Postseason numbers skewed his impact to a Top-25WR finish. Doesn't seem like much, but a lot of names moved around due to their Week 14-17 performances... and that doesn't do much for you in the Fantasy Regular Season. Green Bay showed some promise by breaking into the postseason late in the year, but there's questions about their future as well thanks to their backfield situation. On a more direct note - if Christian Watson gets healthy for a full season, Reed's impact and usage could go down a lot. Reed is currently listed as WR3 on the Packers Depth Chart - behind Watson and Romeo Doubs. Dontayvion Wicks made an impact late in the year as well - but I don't think he ousts Reed from his current supporting role. Still - there's a competition to be WR1 for Jordan Love. Reed has shown he can do some of the heavy lifting - but we'll see if he can elevate his game next year now that the 'Rookie Shield' has worn off.
10. Zay Flowers - WR Baltimore Ravens
It took a few weeks for the Baltimore offense to start moving, but they didn't slow down once things fell into place. Flowers has gone from Slot Receiver WR3 to Slot Receiver WR1 in the Baltimore Offense. His best comp is Marquise (Hollywood) Brown - who had lots of success in the Lamar Jackson led offense. Even with a struggling backfield due to injuries, Flowers was heavily utilized and impressed just about every week. Zay wrapped his 2023 Regular Season with only three games below 5pts, and four games below 8.5pts. Just shy of 900yds, Flowers has a real chance to be a 1000yd receiver next year for this offense - and if not that, 1000yds from Scrimmage (Flowers gained 56yds on 8 carries last year for a total of 914 All-Purpose Yds). If they can sort out their Running Back woes, this team will continue to be dangerous for years to come - and Flowers is going to be one of their big keys to success.
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