We are WEEKS away from the draft now - and I'm still catching up on content! We're listing off the 2024 RB's and their projections to finish the season. Who takes a step up - and who are you going to target in the draft? Let's check out my non-expert projections:
Carries, Fumbles, Yards, and TDs were pulled from CBS Fantasy, Snaps Logged* were pulled from FootballGuys, and all other stats** are pulled from the AJFFL Database.* = Snaps logged during the NFL Regular Season (Weeks 1-18)
** = Games Played is based off of the AJFFL 17 Week Schedule, foregoing the final week of the season for calculation purposes.
*** Target Share = (Targets + Carries) / Snaps Logged
Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers 16 GP | 359.8 TP | 285.4 RSP | 22.49 VpGP | 1.00 RelVal | 272 Carries | 1459 RuYds | 14 TD | 2 FL If you don't have CMC as your RB1 then you are delusional. Those are monstrous stats, not to mention the 83 targets, 67 receptions for 564yds and 7 additional TDs. His Target Share is astronomical compared to wide receivers (but so is every RB's) - coming in at 43.7%. You're reading that right - CMC was getting the ball 43.7% of the time he was in the game last year. The only reason he wouldn't get it that much moving forward was because of injury. That's it, that's the whole blurb. CMC is RB1. Fight me.
Saquon Barkley Philadelphia Eagles 13 GP | 180.5 TP | 150.6 RSP | 13.88 VpGP | 0.62 RelVal | 247 Carries | 962 RuYds | 6 TD | 2 FL The floor opens up after RB1. It could be anyone... but Saquon Barkley has the best case to steal it from McCaffrey. He struggled once again on a bad New York Giants team, being leaned on heavily to make up the offense. His Target Share ended up at 42.8% - very close to CMC, but in fewer games, and production. Barkley was able to capture 41 passes for 280yds and 4 RecTDs in addition to his stat line from above - but his new explosive Eagles offense should help him boost all of these numbers back to an MVP caliber. Expect Saquon to wreak havoc.
James Cook Buffalo Bills 16 GP | 206.8 TP | 161.4 RSP | 12.93 VpGP | 0.57 RelVal | 237 Carries | 1122 RuYds | 2 TD | 2 FL I think this is the year Buffalo leans heavily into the run game, and that's why James Cook will be the first Running Back I take off the board in 2024. He's only improved his game from year to year, and he's entering his third season as the Bills Starting RB - plus they just shipped out Stefon Diggs. Cook's versatility trumps that of his brothers, who was a dynamic running back - James is a bruiser back and quick out of the backfield with a decent set of hands. Cook's target share while in the game eclipsed CMC's (45.9%), but he saw nearly 200-less snaps in the season. With 40+ receptions and nearly 240 carries, why wouldn't you want an RB with almost 300 touches per season leading the way?
Derrick Henry Baltimore Ravens 16 GP | 213.76 TP | 185368 RSP | 13.36 VpGP | 0.59 RelVal | 280 Carries | 1167 RuYds | 12 TD | 0 FL DUH, you have to put the King in the Top 5. He saw nearly 300 carries last year, and 36 passes came his way. Now, he's on the Ravens - and they're going to mix him in with all the offense they already can create with Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers and company. His target share was the highest in the league, coming in at 56.6%. I don't think that can be recreated, but it just shows how much the Titans trusted Henry. The Ravens have a high-powered offense, and won't need to lean on Henry that much... but that could mean Henry would be more effective when getting the ball. Lots of upside/downside conversations to be having with him in this new offense, but I think he will be dangerous either way.
Breece Hall New York Jets 16 GP | 226.5 TP | 164.0 RSP | 14.16 VpGP | 0.63 RelVal | 223 Carries | 994 RuYds | 5 TD | 0 FL A new dynamic for this offense - but the same Breece Hall as years past. The Jets have added another big piece to their offense with Mike Williams coming over from Los Angeles - and the return of Aaron Rodgers. Breece had a helluva rookie season despite it being cut short due to injury - and in 2023 Hall stated his claim for RB1. He missed the 1k Club by 6 yards, but his overall offense (1585yds) and 47.7% Target Share says he was the workhorse in New York last year. With the changes on the offense, I wouldn't expect Hall to be worked as heavily this upcoming year, but he still has Top-10 upside to me without a doubt.
Travis Etienne Jr. Jacksonville Jaguars 16 GP | 244.2 TP | 206.9 RSP | 15.26 VpGP | 0.68 RelVal | 267 Carries | 1008 RuYds | 11 TD | 0 FL Jacksonville gained a few key run blockers, and I think Etienne is going to flourish as a result. He's always been a quick and elusive back - even during his days in college. They lost Calvin Ridley for this upcoming campaign, but I think this will benefit the Jag's - Christian Kirk will run WR1 with Gabe Davis locking up WR2, Evan Engram at TE and Travis Etienne at RB... Trevor Lawrence has it good. I can see the Jaguars winning their division again - because I learned my lesson last year and now I'm gonna double down on them. Etienne's Target Share of 39.7% is lower than most RB1's, but the Jaguars were trying to feed Ridley most of last season... ***insert ETN SZN***
Jahmyr Gibbs Detroit Lions 14 GP | 207.7 TP | 157.1 RSP | 14.84 VpGP | 0.66 RelVal | 182 Carries | 945 RuYds | 10 TD | 1 FL I think one of the two Detroit back's will make this list - so I'm giving it to the speedy youngster in this year's preview. Both backs are viable to have 1000yd All-Purpose Seasons again - kudos to Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell, but I think Gibbs will be the guy people go after more aggressively in the draft. Suiting up for 14 games in the AJFFL last year, Gibbs put together a solid rookie campaign - nearly joining the 1k Rushing Club. It's clear Goff trusts him with the ball - Gibbs only lost one fumble, but his Target Share was came in a bit lower (42.7%) compared to Montgomery (53.6% Target Share). Do I think Montgomery is the better back? Depends on how you'd like me to answer it - I think he's a stronger runner between the tackles, and more physical. I also think Gibbs has breakaway speed and is much more elusive. They're the perfect compliment to one another, and I don't know if I could pick a better Fantasy back.
Joe Mixon Houston Texans 16 GP | 218.9 TP | 180.6 RSP | 13.68 VpGP | 0.61 RelVal | 257 Carries | 1034 RuYds | 9 TD | 0 FL Houston gained a dawg in their move to acquire Joe Mixon. Now their offense is ready to roll after an off-season revamp. Not that the Texans were touting a poor offense last year... they made the playoffs, they had to be doing something right! But in addition to adding Joe Mixon from the Bengals, the Texans were able to land Stefon Diggs form the Bills, Danielle Hunter from the Vikings, Azeez Al-Shaair and Denico Autry from the Titans, and several more. I would consider Mixon an upgrade from Singeltary - Mixon has been in a high-powered offense and knows how to play the role well. I think his physicality will help protect Stroud a bit, but will really come in handy for the Texans ground game. His Target Share last year of 42.7% will be hard to trust seeing that he's in a new offense this year, but I don't think it should be too far off. Mixon *should* be a Top-15 back at worst this fall.
Bijan Robinson Atlanta Falcons 16 GP | 194.7 TP | 169.0 RSP | 12.17 VpGP | 0.56 RelVal | 214 Carries | 976 RuYds | 4 TD | 3 FL Despite his lackluster rookie season, I still think Bijan is a top-tier Fantasy RB. Robinson's usage was hard to predict last season - and Arthur Smith will take sole responsibility for that. Now that there's a new offense, Bijan and finally put his best foot forward - and if he doesn't, his new veteran QB will help him get there. Bijan's under-usage boiled down to a 38.9% Target Share - not what you'd expect from a Running Back who was supposed to dominate the game at the next level. I would understand why some people are shying away from him this year - but I'm going full-gas on Bijan.
Josh Jacobs Green Bay Packers 13 GP | 162.8 TP | 162.8 RSP | 12.52 VpGP | 0.56 RelVal | 233 Carries | 805 RuYds | 6 TD | 1 FL Jacobs is geared up for a big year. Not only has the power back found a new home in Green Bay, but he's joining a team who is desperate for a strong presence in the backfield. Not to take away from AJ Dillon who is RB2, but Jacobs runs with purpose. His 47.8% Target Share while with the Las Vegas Raiders last year says everything you need to know about him - he's trustworthy with the ball. He's now one-season removed from his RB1 Fantasy run in 2022, but I think he has a good chance to put up Top-10 numbers once again this year. Don't sleep on Jacobs.
Comentários