Every year, RB's go off the board faster than every other position. As highly touted as they are - there's always going to be injuries that ruin our preseason rankings. There's also going to be your rookie standouts who make more of an impact than you expect! With those both in mind, here's who is getting the "gamebreaker" projections in the NFL this fall.
Christian McCaffrey - San Francisco 49ers 16 Games | 300.46pts | 18.78VpGP | 100% Start | 0.89RelVal One of the few names that populate at the top of the RB category - Christian McCaffery is slated to have a HUGE year - if he can stay healthy. For the first time in a long time, McCaffery isn't the focal point of the offense. He now has several high-profile and playmaking teammates around him in San Fran, and I think it will drive his overall value DOWN. Not that he wouldn't be a Top-10 RB for you this fall, but there are just so many more options. Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk, Jennings as Slot - not to mention Elijah Mitchell as RB2, and hidden gem Ronnie Bell as a deep depth WR who will probably find some time on special teams before earning a role in this stacked offense. Overall, McCaffery is a safe RB to grab off the board if you need a true #1. I don't see him as THE RB1... but top 10 for sure.
Derrick Henry - Tennessee Titans 15 Games | 276.96pts | 18.46VpGP | 94% Start | 0.88RelVal The workhorse in Tennessee is still being leaned on heavily - and their offense could see some trouble if King Henry goes down this season. Ryan Tannehill is still listed as the Titans starting QB, and the highly anticipated arrival of Will Levis is not working out according to plans - as the latest reports indicate Malik Willis is outplaying the 2nd Rd Pick for the backup role. Meanwhile, a different battle in the backfield - for RB2... Former Michigan RB Hassan Haskins was arrested earlier this summer for aggravated assault directed at his (at-the-time) girlfriend. Nothing has been reported outside of the incident, so we are unsure if this could impact Haskins rostering... That being said, Tyjae Spears is gaining value in response to the uncertainty. What does all this mean for Henry? More work - which means he's either going to be lights-out this season, or he's going to miss a few games while he tries to recover from being the workhorse. Henry will finish as a Top-3 RB if he can play all 17 games.
Austin Ekeler - Los Angeles Chargers 16 Games | 312.2pts | 19.51VpGP | 100% Start | 0.93RelVal The man who is the pre-season favorite to overtake RB1 status... Ekeler is in the final year of his contract, and he's already made it known that he's ready for a change or scenery, or a change in responsibility with the football. He finished RB2 last year, ahead of Henry and McCaffery. Justin Herbert is looking to make that next step with his offensive development as well - while also attempting to take the division for the first time in over a decade. Ekeler can expect a steady workload as RB1 on a hungry offense. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett are looking to make a big impact outside, while rookie Quinten Johnston has already earned a starting role. The Chargers skill positions are stacked, and this could be the year they finally get over the KC hump.
Saquon Barkley - New York Giants 16 Games | 258.0pts | 16.13VpGP | 100% Start | 0.77RelVal The new-look Giants have made a lot of changes this offseason. The biggest concern is Barkley's contract. He has still yet to sign his Franchise Tag, and has been vocal about holding out. Without Barkley, this team will have a hard time moving the ball as they will lose a HUGE part of their offensive versatility. If Barkley signs, could the new additions be enough to get the Giants to the postseason in a WildCard spot? ... Eh... Darren Waller and Parris Campbell are good adds for a small, slow team (Waller adds size, Campbell adds speed). Matt Brieda as RB2 helps secure a second option incase Saquon needs a breath, but now that Barkley has help, he may become the asset he was at Penn State once again. BUT... that means he has to A.) stay healthy and B.) not be the only player gaining yards on offense. The second bullet point isn't really up to him - but it could become his problem. Barkley will be one of the high-volume backs in the league if he's suiting up.
Breece Hall - New York Jets 7 Games | 107.6pts | 15.37VpGP | 41% Start | 0.73RelVal Breece Hall was on his way to Rookie of the Year had he not gone down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 7. Through six games and one quarter, Hall logged 107pts - and was projected to finish in the 210-240pt range. Unfortunately his season was cut short, but the offense around him hasn't stopped growing since he left the field. Zach Wilson is no longer QB1, as Aaron Rodgers has moved East to the Jets camp. Allen Lazard will lead the WR room with Garret Wilson opposite him, and Mecole Hardman in the slot. Don't forget Tyler Conklin on the edge - the Jets have created quite the dynamic offensive attack for the third year coach Robert Saleh. It will be interesting to see how Hall adjusts to the new environment with all these new assets around him. His upside is still ELITE, but I can see a drop-off in usage due to the playmakers around him now. That being said - his most productive plays came from the screen game last year (0.5ppr fans celebrate here). The Jets will - at worst - be competing for a Wild Card spot with this roster. It will be tough to beat out both the Bills and the Dolphins, but I've seen crazier things happen.
Tony Pollard - Dallas Cowboys 15 Games | 231.4pts | 15.43VpGP | 94% Start | 0.73RelVal Tony Pollard - quite possibly one of the sneakiest RB1's in the NFL right now. He's worked his way up the depth chart and has finally ousted Ezekiel Elliot for the job in Dallas next to Dak Prescott - but how much longer can the Cowboys hold on to their window? Dak is getting older, they're losing their offense, and Mike McCarthy is still their head coach. Their high-flying passing attack days are still around, but how effective are they if you don't have the secondary choice to run the football? Pollard can expect a LOT of use this year. The Cowboys have loaded up with fast WR's in Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks, and CeeDee Lamb. Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker now head the TE department, and Pollard will take control of the backfield with help from Malik Davis and Deuce Vaughn. Pollard is also one of several RB's on Franchise Tag's this year. If he overperforms, he can probably expect an extension. If they struggle, Pollard will be walking next May. For this upcoming season though, you can count on Pollard to be THE workhorse - and quite possibly another top-10 finish if he can stay healthy.
Nick Chubb - Cleveland Browns 16 Games | 247.2pts | 15.45VpGP | 100% Start | 0.73RelVal Nick Chubb has been on a tear the last few years of his NFL Career. Since being drafted, he has missed seven games (out of 85 regular season contests). TALK ABOUT AN IRON MAN! He's reliable, and he scores LOTS of points. Since the AJFFL originated, Chubb is averaging 14.7points per game, Starting 88% of the time, and lands within the Top-7 in RelVal. He's a diamond in the rough, and now that Kareem Hunt is out of town - the focal point of the Browns backfield. DeShawn Watson is now under center, and his performance (and usage) will probably uptick to start the year until Watson is more established as a passer again. Chubb's upside once again is Top-5 RB... but Watson's talent could be a hinderance to his value on your roster come fantasy playoffs.
David Montgomery - Detroit Lions 15 Games | 158.6pts | 10.57VpGP | 94% Start | 0.50RelVal Montgomery made a name for himself in Chicago as a hard-nosed running back who doesn't give up. His second, third, and fourth efforts kept the Bears in games all year last season, and Justin Fields was able to (occasionally) make the necessary play to keep their team in it. His stats didn't speak to his fantasy output, unfortunately. In the last two years, Montgomery has added up 304pts for a 0.57RelVal - nothing spectacular. So when your team isn't winning, and the players aren't performing to their standards - it results in some changes. That's how Monty ended up with the division-rival Lions. Detroit swiftly sent D'Andre to Philly as the Detroit RBC is arguably set with Monty up the middle, and Jahmyr Gibbs as a passing back. The duo will open up the field even more for Jared Goff and his ever-growing receiving corps (Goff is going into his third year with Detroit). We'll see how their offense develops over the year, but expect Monty to be a breakout candidate and climb into the Top-10 RB conversation for the first time in his career.
Jamaal Williams - New Orleans Saints 16 Games | 200.7pts | 12.54VpGP | 100% Start | 0.60RelVal The NFL's Rushing TD Leader from last year is donning the black and gold - and the rest of New Orleans is excited for their New-Look Saints. Derek Carr is at the helm of the Saints Offense, with Jamaal in the backfield and (hopefully) Mike Thomas and Chris Olave. Add in Juwan Johnson and the speedy Alvin Kamara and you have another very dynamic offense in the bayou. Jamaal's 200pts last year put him at RB13 with the Lions - but he wanted more. Money? Responsibility? Team Trust? You could say yes to all three, but it doesn't really matter. Williams has the drive to be the best - but his top-speed isn't quite Kamara-esque. That being said, the difference he brings to the backfield will be substantial for the new QB Carr and company. If Jamaal is able to convert on his TD's the way he did in Detroit last year, Williams will be another Top-10 RB candidate. It's easy to see him slip from this position though. given the backfield competition he's going to see.
Travis Etienne Jr. - Jacksonville Jaguars 16 Games | 183.2pts | 11.45VpGP | 100% Start | 0.54RelVal The most unlikely-player to appear on a Top-10 list by position (IMO...), is the Jacksonville Jaguars RB1. Promoted mid-season last year to take over for the attitude-ridden James Robinson, Etienne outperformed his draft spot in fantasy. He didn't get sole-control until Week 5, when Robinson was scratched. From there, Etienne didn't see a slow week until his injury in Week 12 vs Baltimore - putting up 101.2pts from Week 5 to Week 10. He had a slow rebound, but found his form before the end of the season once again. Jacksonville is making moves, and Pederson is leading a solid group of young players who are buying in - much like Dan Campbell and the Lions. TLaw, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Calvin Ridley, and Travis Etienne will be the face of this franchise this fall - and depending on how their run goes this fall... they could turn into long-term residents. Etienne will be a steal anywhere after the third round, but he has long-term value as a keeper as well. Expect him to crack the Top-10 if the Jaguars offense continues to roll like last year.
Comments